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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Another opportunity for some much needed rainfall this week.

The recent rains from the April noreaster and the last two weeks have reversed the dry conditions and more to come next week.. There seems to be more focus on recent deficits than the recent surplus. most of the last 10 years We had 30 inches of rain between Aug and Oct last year alone

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The recent rains from the April noreaster and the last two weeks have reversed the dry conditions and more to come next week.. There seems to be more focus on recent deficits than the recent surplus. most of the last 10 years We had 30 inches of rain between Aug and Oct last year alone

As long as the recent rainy pattern continues the drought shouldn't last much longer... Despite the rain over the last 2 weeks we're still considered to be in a moderate drought.

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The recent rains from the April noreaster and the last two weeks have reversed the dry conditions and more to come next week.. There seems to be more focus on recent deficits than the recent surplus. most of the last 10 years We had 30 inches of rain between Aug and Oct last year alone

Yeah, the last year that we were able to finish with much of a deficit was all the way back in 2002.

The short term drought conditions since January stand out compared to the wet pattern since 2003.

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The 18z NAM has a maximum high of 84 degrees tomorrow for parts of NE NJ and near NYC. With Central Park's high of 78 degrees today, tomorrow should be the first 80+ degree day of the month. Although the pattern probably turns warmer by the late week/next weekend, given recent trends a persistently warm pattern is questionable, especially with models hinting at another possible cutoff to the south around next weekend.

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12Z Nam is keeping the heavier rain over central/Eastern PA through mid week only light rain here - looks like bad stretch of weather coming up this week

http://raleighwx.ame...amp24_NE072.gif

The GFS is the only model I've seen still showing the heavy rain axis over/west of NYC. The NAM's probably overdoing the eastern cutoff of the rain, as the heavier rain should likely shift east through NYC and into Long Island/CT on Tuesday and Tuesday night, although it's pretty clear the heaviest rains should stay to the west. Fortunately the rain doesn't go on all week, highs could reach the upper 70s degrees again on Wed-Fri according to the ECM/GFS.

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the euro has been consistently showing a band of heavy rain moving through tuesday night and dropping around 1" over the metro area with the exception of eastern LI

notice how much slower the nam is with the system compared to the other models

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the euro has been consistently showing a band of heavy rain moving through tuesday night and dropping around 1" over the metro area with the exception of eastern LI

notice how much slower the nam is with the system compared to the other models

the euro ends WAA precip by 6z wed morning and shows a severe threat wed afternoon as well

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Highs around 70F for mid May, cloudy/rainy or not, hardly constitutes a "bad stretch of weather."

Thats what I love about this forum - mostly everything you write here someone comes around and says you are wrong - even when you say rainy weather for a few days straight is a bad stretch of weather - glad you enjoy a good stretch of rainy weather........

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Here in central NJ, it really hasn't been that wet. 1.80" for the month of May so far, and April was below normal precip. I'm hoping for at least 1" this week, but this synoptic set-up looks like it could favor interior sections for training convection.

80F and hot out right now.

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Thats what I love about this forum - mostly everything you write here someone comes around and says you are wrong - even when you say rainy weather for a few days straight is a bad stretch of weather - glad you enjoy a good stretch of rainy weather........

Bad May weather to me is 3-4 consecutive days with high temps in the 55-65 degree range and showers around. The next several days will be in the 70s, with Tuesday being the worst day wet weather wise, but even then, we're not talking cold stratiform rains. I've seen 50-55F and rain for highs as late as the end of May. Much of this week won't be very pretty, but it'll still be comfortable outside in shorts and a t-shirt.

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Bad May weather to me is 3-4 consecutive days with high temps in the 55-65 degree range and showers around. The next several days will be in the 70s, with Tuesday being the worst day wet weather wise, but even then, we're not talking cold stratiform rains. I've seen 50-55F and rain for highs as late as the end of May. Much of this week won't be very pretty, but it'll still be comfortable outside in shorts and a t-shirt.

There was a 48/44 day in May of 2010. Now THAT is a nasty May day.

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Wednesday looks like a cloudier/possibly wetter repeat of today for parts of the area (link to 18z NAM), with highs again probably getting near 80 degrees near/SW of the city as well as a possibility of some thunderstorm activity north/west of NYC. Tomorrow and Tuesday have the worst conditions of the week, and that's not too bad as well with highs still in the 60s/low 70s.

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Bad May weather to me is 3-4 consecutive days with high temps in the 55-65 degree range and showers around. The next several days will be in the 70s, with Tuesday being the worst day wet weather wise, but even then, we're not talking cold stratiform rains. I've seen 50-55F and rain for highs as late as the end of May. Much of this week won't be very pretty, but it'll still be comfortable outside in shorts and a t-shirt.

Or in June, in 2009, 1992 and 1972.
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