ag3 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 May starts off with a rainy day. Parts of the area received close to 1" of rain this morning. Here are the updated rain totals as of 9:00am: LGA: .73" NYC: .61" JFK: .94" EWR: .40" Looks like several shots of storms and rain over the next few days. Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles both have a healthy -NAO block over the next 10-14 days; We'll see what impact that has going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Some more pronounced clearing in the next 2 hours should send temps into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 Some more pronounced clearing in the next 2 hours should send temps into the 70s. Areas that are in the clearing shown above in PA, have popped into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Summery day here in SE PA. 76F with dew points close to 60. Partial clearing. Pretty comfortable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 18Z MSLP 18Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The -NAO block may not have a great impact on temperatures, things still look above normal for the next 10 days, Friday and Saturday should be much above normal sending those + departures soaring. After that it looks seasonable at best, nothing below. Torch begets torch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 Temps in the upper 60's now with sunshine. Should be able to top 70, over the next hour or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The -NAO block may not have a great impact on temperatures, things still look above normal for the next 10 days, Friday and Saturday should be much above normal sending those + departures soaring. After that it looks seasonable at best, nothing below. Torch begets torch I guess. There won't be much negative departures over the next 10 days (tomorrow could be a bit below average possibly), although other than Friday and Saturday this pattern doesn't resemble a torch to me. The blocking isn't sending cold down this way as it would have in the winter, but at the same time the bigger warm spells are staying to our west and south, with occasional surges of warmth getting here but nothing impressive in terms of duration. I'd think temperatures probably end up moderately warmer than average (+2 to +4 degrees), as there's still likely going to be the occasional brief heat surges although otherwise, temperatures would probably end up closer to average than well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Doesn't look like anyone in the NYC region will reach 90 the first half of May although some areas could reach well into the 80's briefly at some point before the weekend is over. Second half chances of reaching 90 will depend on whether the Neg Nao relaxes and more ridging develops in the East......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Looks like a small area of rain trying to move east into the region. Looks like a dreary day ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Looks like a small area of rain trying to move east into the region. Looks like a dreary day ahead R Rain looks to move out by noon for most. Perhaps some late clearing again as some more breaks pushing ESE into C-PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 Looks like a small area of rain trying to move east into the region. Looks like a dreary day ahead The next few days look dreary. Friday has a chance at some warmth but even Friday needs to be watched for bdcf type of setup as the 6z NAM hinted for the shore and into NYC. Your area doesn't get out of the 60's now for Friday on the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 12z NAM continues to back off the 80's for Friday. It now has a high of 67-70 for NYC. Even lower for LI and most of CT. The 80's are west of Newark. It also keeps the entire day cloudy and drizzly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 12z NAM continues to back off the 80's for Friday. It now has a high of 67-70 for NYC. Even lower for LI and most of CT. The 80's are west of Newark. It also keeps the entire day cloudy and drizzly. I'm concerned the big heat won't make it to NYC. But the NAM also backed off the warmth for Tuesday, before going warmer again, the day before. So we'll see, if that happens again or not. There would also be potential for a few strong to severe t-storms, if the warm front would get hung up close to us, Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Tough call for NYC. I think se winds will probably spoil the warmth city area on east. Might be a warm day for Jersey with thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 We could pick up some rain tonight if the elevated convection holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 12z NAM continues to back off the 80's for Friday. It now has a high of 67-70 for NYC. Even lower for LI and most of CT. The 80's are west of Newark. It also keeps the entire day cloudy and drizzly. Backdoor city until the weekend I think. The marine layer regime is notoriously tough to root out in marginal situations on the coast. Hopefully the weekend can clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The NAM tend to ruin the warmth and thunderstorm chances all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 GFS still brings the WF pretty far into SNE. Would be good for the city if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 One of the biggest busts I've seen in a while around here. Forecasts were for mid 60s, lowered to 60 this morning and right now we're sitting at 52, our current low for the day. Temps could still rebound later this afternoon but this is pretty far off from Mostly cloudy, 60s and 30% chance of showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 One of the biggest busts I've seen in a while around here. Forecasts were for mid 60s, lowered to 60 this morning and right now we're sitting at 52, our current low for the day. Temps could still rebound later this afternoon but this is pretty far off from Mostly cloudy, 60s and 30% chance of showers Yeah once these airmasses set in, 90% of the time..models are too bullish to retreat it. Clouds on top aren't helping either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 One of the biggest busts I've seen in a while around here. Forecasts were for mid 60s, lowered to 60 this morning and right now we're sitting at 52, our current low for the day. Temps could still rebound later this afternoon but this is pretty far off from Mostly cloudy, 60s and 30% chance of showers The NAM had it right yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 the nam can sometimes develop phantom convection that messes with frontal placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 the nam can sometimes develop phantom convection that messes with frontal placement But even if the GFS is correct with the warm front, it still has measurable precip the entire day. Best case is drizzly, rainy, cloudy and temps into the upper 70's, as the GFS suggests. Worst case is the NAM, which is upper 60's and drizzly/cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 But even if the GFS is correct with the warm front, it still has measurable precip the entire day. Best case is drizzly, rainy, cloudy and temps into the upper 70's, as the GFS suggests. Worst case is the NAM, which is upper 60's and drizzly/cloudy. hard to imagine upper 70's and drizzle this time of year-that sounds like a July tropical day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 hard to imagine upper 70's and drizzle this time of year-that sounds like a July tropical day.... If the warm front blasts through SNE, like the GFS has, its not hard to imagine at all. But like I said, the GFS still has a pretty ****ty day. Just a warmer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Only 50F right now, very raw, showery, cloudy day for early May. High was 57 just after midnight I believe and it's been downhill since then. It'll be interesting to see what kind of pattern we ultimately end up in since there will be a lot of blocking around, -NAO/AO and rising PNA will probably mean we won't see a 90F reading anytime soon, which I don't mind at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 No work again today....but today was alot worse...good rain for grass though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 But even if the GFS is correct with the warm front, it still has measurable precip the entire day. Best case is drizzly, rainy, cloudy and temps into the upper 70's, as the GFS suggests. Worst case is the NAM, which is upper 60's and drizzly/cloudy. it's convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 12z Canadian blasts the front into SNE and is drier then the GFS. Temps easily into the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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