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May 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


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I have one of the COCRAHS gauges and it goes up to 11" of rain, it measured 6.1" of rain from yesterday. Very impressive. Rainfall totals are a little high due to the hail but not too far off.

I got .29. :cry: 2.39 for the month. :cry: 10.79 for the year. :weep:

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Got to 90 yesterday and FFC is forecasting 93 today. UGh. FFC is forecasting temps as high as 96 tomorrow in parts of central Ga.

the 0.48 inches of rain i had the other day looks is as if it never happened. Needless to say this type of heat will only worsen the situation.

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Got to 90 yesterday and FFC is forecasting 93 today. UGh. FFC is forecasting temps as high as 96 tomorrow in parts of central Ga.

the 0.48 inches of rain i had the other day looks is as if it never happened. Needless to say this type of heat will only worsen the situation.

Tell me about it. Just .05" here in the last 11 days. Thumbs down. Tons of storms around MBY Monday thru Wednesday and got squat.

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Tell me about it. Just .05" here in the last 11 days. Thumbs down. Tons of storms around MBY Monday thru Wednesday and got squat.

Same here..one area had up to 5 inches to the west of me a week or two back and areas to the southeast of me had 1 to 3 inches. The 0.48 I had came from a "complex" of storms, that of course weakened right before it got here. To have a half inch of rain and it literally looked like it has not rained at all 2 days later tells all you need to know about how dry it's been here for a long time.

At this pace of screwjobbing, If we don't have a wet summer/tropical systems giving us rain this year, I think at best both lakes will become a puddle and the other will dry up almost completely. Both are way down and have been for a while and even though the majority of north georgia has gotten decent rains, it keeps drying up as it gets here or the models have been way off on the amounts in general for at least 2 or 3 months here.

Models are a bit wetter with the STS/front later on but I've seen this movie before so i don't have my hopes up.

It doesn't help when you have highs of 95 degrees either, which i had yesterday. :axe: :axe:

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Same here..one area had up to 5 inches to the west of me a week or two back and areas to the southeast of me had 1 to 3 inches. The 0.48 I had came from a "complex" of storms, that of course weakened right before it got here. To have a half inch of rain and it literally looked like it has not rained at all 2 days later tells all you need to know about how dry it's been here for a long time.

At this pace of screwjobbing, If we don't have a wet summer/tropical systems giving us rain this year, I think at best both lakes will become a puddle and the other will dry up almost completely. Both are way down and have been for a while and even though the majority of north georgia has gotten decent rains, it keeps drying up as it gets here or the models have been way off on the amounts in general for at least 2 or 3 months here.

Models are a bit wetter with the STS/front later on but I've seen this movie before so i don't have my hopes up.

It doesn't help when you have highs of 95 degrees either, which i had yesterday. :axe: :axe:

97/99 here right now!!!

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I hit 90 for the first time this Season on Friday. It's amazing what a wet ground can do, as I've been on the other side of the coin many, many times . I liken this situation or rain/no rain pattern between NC and GA as being similar to how it usually is between my area and the northern Foothills. More years than not, my back yard falls in with the dry desert like side near the Upstate and Athens. But this makes the second year in a row, I'm in the Hickory group LOL. Everything is lush, green, and just nearly like a tropical rainforest. My yard looks the best its ever looked and even though streams still aren't up to what they were in the 1990's, they are no where near where they were just 3 years ago (and most of the last decade).

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I hit 90 for the first time this Season on Friday. It's amazing what a wet ground can do, as I've been on the other side of the coin many, many times . I liken this situation or rain/no rain pattern between NC and GA as being similar to how it usually is between my area and the northern Foothills. More years than not, my back yard falls in with the dry desert like side near the Upstate and Athens. But this makes the second year in a row, I'm in the Hickory group LOL. Everything is lush, green, and just nearly like a tropical rainforest. My yard looks the best its ever looked and even though streams still aren't up to what they were in the 1990's, they are no where near where they were just 3 years ago (and most of the last decade).

Having a good week down here as well, after the 6-8" 7 hr thunderstorm craziness last Wed. we have had showers associated with Beryl and a general onshore flow everyday. Typically they are small but heavy showers, today they are a bit bigger and I bet we have had close to .30-.50" IMBY as they are slow movers. The real question is what does Beryl have in store for us MHX seems to think 2-4" but I dunno....

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The real question is what does Beryl have in store for us MHX seems to think 2-4" but I dunno....

That is a good question. For your area atleast you'll always be on the north/northeast quad of the circulation, so onshore flow is going to be good next two days. It's hard to say exactly where the system stalls and then what exact track it takes when she begins to turn northeast but roughly looks like it will aim from the Ga/Fl line through South Ga and into coastal SC...again, pretty good track and close to the center so you'll see decent spiral bands at some point. I think all models are under doing the rain totals, but 2" to 4" looks reasonable, more for south central Ga/se and north FL next 2 days. I have some question about it stopping so suddenly in south central GA, as it has a good bit of speed now.

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Sorry if I haven't posted a lot recently, but I have been doing some heavy-duty planning and such for the Memorial Day Weekend, aside from work. Anyway, managed to hit 91 for a high Friday and flirted with 90 the following day. Up to 7.42" for the monthly rainfall so now the question is how much will be added to that before the month is over. It's been a fantastic month getting these opportunities for beneficial rain but of course, there is always that risk of too much rain but I'm welcoming any chance that's there.

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That is a good question. For your area atleast you'll always be on the north/northeast quad of the circulation, so onshore flow is going to be good next two days. It's hard to say exactly where the system stalls and then what exact track it takes when she begins to turn northeast but roughly looks like it will aim from the Ga/Fl line through South Ga and into coastal SC...again, pretty good track and close to the center so you'll see decent spiral bands at some point. I think all models are under doing the rain totals, but 2" to 4" looks reasonable, more for south central Ga/se and north FL next 2 days. I have some question about it stopping so suddenly in south central GA, as it has a good bit of speed now.

Here is the thinking from NHC for the next 48 hrs, if this were to verify it would put us over 10-12" in southern Pitt Co for the month of May. The corn is already waist high in many places, compared to the last oh 5-7 years when it was lucky to still be alive much less get higher than waist high all year. Cant say I am wanting quite as much as forecast so we will see system like Beryl can be a nightmare to predict. I do think SE NC gets the rain hammer though and the NHC is not far off I bet.

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HPC sounds pretty bullish for us tomorrow sounds like we might get hammered but we will see these storms can be very hit and miss....

HVY TO EXCESSIVE

RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED...ESP

ACROSS ERN NC IN FAR SERN VA WHERE IN ADDITION TO PWS AOA 2 INCHES

NEAR THE CTR AND STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...MODELS INDICATE

STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET

DYNAMICS ALONG THE NWRN QUAD OF THE SYSTEM. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO

TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE

WELL OUT INTO THE OPEN WATERS. WITH ITS TRACK MOST SIMILAR TO THE

OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...THE HPC QPF GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHTING TO

THE GFS. REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR FURTHER INFO PERTAINING TO

BERYL.

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Cluster of storms in NW GA heading my way. Will they hold together and deliver much-needed rain to this area?

Stay tuned.

It does look promising but since I haven't seen a drop in two weeks I'm pretty leery. Everything seems to die just a few miles away from my house. I desperately need the rain for my garden and my rain barrel is just about empty.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

NORTHERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

NORTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 1123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP

TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM

WHITE TO CASSVILLE TO EUHARLEE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

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Latest from HPC

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

451 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU JUN 02/1200 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...EASTERN NC....

AS PER THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK...BERYL WL BE MOVG BACK OFFSHORE

EARLY THIS MORNING...ENEWD ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND INTO THE WRN

ATL WED NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINS WL LIKELY CONT ALONG AND TO THE

NORTH OF THE TRACK ACRS ERN NC DAY 1. WITH POTENTIAL FOR

RE-STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER...CONVECTION

MAY INCREASE INVOF THE CNTR AND ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND EXCESSIVE

RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST GFS AND CMC LOOK MOST REASONABLE

WITH THE QPF DISTRIBUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THEY ARE FARTHER

INLAND AND HEAVIER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE HI RES RUNS OF THE

ARW AND NMM DO SHOW HEAVY AMTS BUT ARE MORE SUPPRESSED ALONG THE

IMMED COAST WITH THEIR QPF AXIS...NOT EXTENDING HEAVY RAINS

FARTHER INLAND AS IS OCCURRING IN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS. RAINFALL

AMTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE DAY 1 OVR ERN NC...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

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