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May 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


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Got a nice break yesterday with light - moderate showers training over the valley, dropping a half inch across the county in a uniform fashion. Southern Jackson pipcked up more due to thunderstorms before the light showers set in overnight.

Going to be a oven across the SE this weekend. If this wx doesnt make you think about hopping in the water, I dont know what will, lol.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=jax&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS INTO SATURDAY. THE

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLE SMALL

CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL

RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY MAY PUSH TO THE

WEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THIS WILL BRING

AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3

INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. COASTAL IMPACTS FROM A POSSIBLE TROPICAL

SYSTEM ARE STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDY

CONDITIONS AND HIGHER SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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For you Eastern NC dwellers:

95mBw.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1128 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS

INTO SERN VA...

...ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES COLD UPPER LOW /-16C AT 500 MB/ IS

LIFTING NEWD FROM SC TOWARD ERN NC AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS

CLOUDS ARE CLEARING/THINNING OVER PARTS OF NC IN ADVANCE OF THE

SYSTEM...WHICH IS ALLOWING STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY

SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...VERY FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO

DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL

AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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mcd0877.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1215 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINASCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231715Z - 231815ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD FROMCENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO MOVE NEWD/NWDAFFECTING ERN PARTS OF THESE STATES AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSTMSSHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NWD MOVING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ENEWD FROM 40 SW SOP TO 20 E FAY TO10 NE EWN/. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOODFOR SOME OF THE TSTMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE MORNING SHOWED ANEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN SC NWD TO THE SC/NCBORDER...NEAR 40 SW SOP...AND THEN FARTHER NNEWD THROUGH ERN VA TOVICINITY OF DCA AND THEN THROUGH ERN PA. SURFACE HEATING ALONG ANDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN A CLEAR SLOT EXPANDING NWD ACROSS MUCH OFCENTRAL/ERN NC PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORTDESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARYLAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVINGNWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1500J/KG /WHICH WAS ALREADY INDICATED PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEPENING CU FIELD INVOF THE SURFACEBOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND COUPLEDWITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FIELD FROM NRN SC THROUGH CENTRALNC. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL SLY WINDS/DEEP SHEAR ARE MAINLYCONFINED ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COASTS TODAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR EXPECTED WITH WWD EXTENT...THEFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ACOUPLE OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXES OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINASSUGGEST SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ANDHAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

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146 PM EDT Wed may 23 2012

The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch

292 in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In North Carolina this watch includes 23 counties

In central North Carolina

Anson Chatham Cumberland

Durham Edgecombe Franklin

Granville Halifax Harnett

Hoke Johnston Lee

Montgomery Moore Nash

Richmond Sampson Scotland

Vance wake Warren

Wayne Wilson

This includes the cities of...Clinton...Durham...Fayetteville...

Goldsboro...Henderson...Laurinburg...Lillington...Louisburg...

Nashville...Oxford...Pittsboro...Raeford...Raleigh...

Roanoke Rapids...Rockingham...Rocky Mount...Sanford...

Smithfield...Southern Pines...Troy...Wadesboro...

Warrenton and Wilson.

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We just missed the core of the storms yesterday, but did pick up .35". Looks like today's storms are making a beeline to this part of the county - just West of I-95. Been hearing the thunder coming for the last hour or so.

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329 PM EDT Wed may 23 2012

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

southern Wake County in central North Carolina

Johnston County in central North Carolina

* until 415 PM EDT

* at 325 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm over Coats Crossroads...or 13 miles northeast

of Lillington...moving north at 10 mph. Quarter sized hail and

winds in excess of 58 mph are likely with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...

Coats Crossroads...

This includes Interstate 40 between exits 303 and 325.

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407 PM EDT Wed may 23 2012

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

central Wake County in central North Carolina

north central Johnston County in central North Carolina

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 405 PM EDT...weather spotters reported a severe thunderstorm

over Garner...or 8 miles southeast of Raleigh...moving north at 15

mph. Quarter sized hail and winds in excess of 58 mph are likely

with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...

Knightdale...Raleigh...

New Hope...

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421 PM EDT Wed may 23 2012

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

eastern Chatham County in central North Carolina

western Wake County in central North Carolina

north central Harnett County in central North Carolina

* until 515 PM EDT

* at 417 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm over Holly Springs...or 10 miles south of

Cary...moving north at 15 mph. Quarter sized hail and winds in

excess of 58 mph are likely with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...

Lake Wheeler...

apex...

Cary...

CArpenter...

Morrisville...

rdu international...

This includes Interstate 40 between exits 284 and 298.

This includes Interstate 540 between exits 2 and 7.

This includes Interstate 440 between exits 1 and 7.

This includes US Highway 1 between exits 84 and 101.

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444 PM EDT Wed may 23 2012

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

western Franklin County in central North Carolina

southern Granville County in central North Carolina

northeastern Wake County in central North Carolina

* until 545 PM EDT

* at 440 PM EDT...the public reported a severe thunderstorm over New

Hope...or 5 miles northeast of Raleigh...moving north at 20 mph.

Quarter sized hail and winds in excess of 58 mph are likely with

this storm.

* Locations impacted include...

Falls Lake...

Wake Forest...

Purnell...

Creedmoor...

This includes Interstate 40 between exits 299 and 303.

This includes Interstate 85 between exits 189 and 191.

This includes Interstate 540 between exits 9 and 26.

This includes Interstate 440 between exits 6 and 16.

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Getting hammered here in Greenville for hours now, my folks have had hail at 3 different times, and here it hailed once, size is all pea to marble size but it has covered the ground in some places. Rainfall totals are pretty varied but most places have gotten 2-5" with many roads flooded in town though no flood advisories are out.

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Getting hammered here in Greenville for hours now, my folks have had hail at 3 different times, and here it hailed once, size is all pea to marble size but it has covered the ground in some places. Rainfall totals are pretty varied but most places have gotten 2-5" with many roads flooded in town though no flood advisories are out.

Wow, and can't even buy a cloud down here :) T

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This is the fourth day of rain at the house. Also we have had rain 7 out of the last 10 days. Today we got hammered. Very heavy rain. Washed the drive a little and four day total is around 4 inches of rain. Today alone we got about an inch and a half. It has been raining so much i cannot keep up with the yard growing.

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I need a bigger rain guage. Mine is only a 5 inch rain guage and it was full this morning. No tellin how much rain I got yesterday but my yard is flooded and dopplar indicates 8 inches or so but may have some hail contamination. Theres a 10 inch marker about 5 miles east of me.

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I need a bigger rain guage. Mine is only a 5 inch rain guage and it was full this morning. No tellin how much rain I got yesterday but my yard is flooded and dopplar indicates 8 inches or so but may have some hail contamination. Theres a 10 inch marker about 5 miles east of me.

Dang that is crazy. This week has been killing it in the rainfall department. How much hail did yall get down there.

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Dang that is crazy. This week has been killing it in the rainfall department. How much hail did yall get down there.

Its crazy because the dopplar was just for yesterday and doesn't account for the 1.25 I got on tuesday so I know for a fact i've had 6.25 inches of rain since Tuesday I just don't know how much more than that.

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I need a bigger rain guage. Mine is only a 5 inch rain guage and it was full this morning. No tellin how much rain I got yesterday but my yard is flooded and dopplar indicates 8 inches or so but may have some hail contamination. Theres a 10 inch marker about 5 miles east of me.

Cocohras has reports in the 5-6" range for your area... have not seen that around here in a while.

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We had a pretty bad storm got through Wake Forest yesterday. I arrived home just after it went through. There were limbs all over the road on Highway 98/Durham Rd. You could smell the pine in the air. And there was a lot of hail, too. It was small, but a lot. Here are some pics I took at the Petsmart in town.

post-1490-0-70806900-1337865713_thumb.jp

post-1490-0-14171500-1337865717_thumb.jp

post-1490-0-36113800-1337865720_thumb.jp

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I need a bigger rain guage. Mine is only a 5 inch rain guage and it was full this morning. No tellin how much rain I got yesterday but my yard is flooded and dopplar indicates 8 inches or so but may have some hail contamination. Theres a 10 inch marker about 5 miles east of me.

I have one of the COCRAHS gauges and it goes up to 11" of rain, it measured 6.1" of rain from yesterday. Very impressive. Rainfall totals are a little high due to the hail but not too far off.

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