FoothillsNC Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Lol, we must have gotten under the same cloud Of course, it took 3 days to give me my .95 Last night felt great, with the fan off, and the blanket on, but it is already warmish this morning. Hope Robert's cut off appears next week. T I think we're still game on with the baggy trough or cutoff. There's an outside chance though that it never stalls and instead moves east and minors out across the Carolinas Sunday or Monday. Right now it looks like this will be a very big deal for Texas and Louisiana and possibly all the way to the Florida panhandle. Look how strong the vorticity is still with the system coming into Texas. It should begin to slow down some tomorrow and Saturday , but I think it maintains its structure pretty well, but will feel the effects of the northeast trough (this will slow it down around Alabama--maybe completely stall out). So its tricky what happens beyond Sunday, but if it slows, that will benefit Georgia even more, putting your area under good lift and moisture. Most of the precip events this Spring have been way too progressive in Georgia and the Carolinas, this one actually looks like the opposite, which is why I'm pretty excited for atleast Georgia and north Florida's shot at very good rains soon. Leary about the Carolinas' totals on this one since it would have to stall almost perfectly to get this area sustained showers and storms. But for Alabama (and probably west half of GA) and points west, it looks like a very good period of rain showers and storms on the daily, for about 5 days. There's another Rockies trough that actually may help keep the Deep South system around, by pulling it back toward the west next week, or keeping it stalled (whats left of it will just be a weak mid level cutoff by then). But in May, all we need is a weakeness aloft, ample moisture (high dewpoints) and no capping, good Gulf inflow and weak disturbances. We'll have all that beginning soon, the big question to me is can the Lakes trough Monday drop south enough to pull the southern system out to sea quickly, or will it leave part of the spin behind. I think it leaves part of the spin behind, which will eventually join with the incoming Rockies/So. Plains system, creating a long period of daily storms from Texas, Ok, and points east. For tomorrow and early Saturday, the GFS has had a bullseye for 5 straight days now offshore Galveston, sometimes pulling it inland to around Houston and Lake Charles. I'm a little concerned when GFS is this bullish and consistent on a rain max around there, usually its a sign its seeing a legit threat of flooding. There will be good gulf inflow and a jet streak (maybe more than one) and good diffluence with such a nice upper low coming to a stall soon, that will be the recipe for some area to really get nailed with up to 5" of rain, maybe even more. When the week is said and done I won't be surprised to see Dallas, Houston and Birmingham all top 3" of rain. Of course one big thing to worry about further north is convective robbing. The more linear along the Gulf coast, atleast that will rob the Tennessee Valley at times, but since this is a multiday event, I have no doubt good rains definitely spiral inland very far north toward Tennessee. It's a fun setup (to me all rain is fun). I just wish there was signs of major rains further east in Ga to the Carolinas where the drought has been ongoing a long time, its much wetter west of the Apps (even though I know some areas there are too dry). One other mentionable could be how the ECMWF model builds an Ohio Valley or Lakes ridge next week. I'd like to see that happen esp. furthern north around the Lakes, as that would almost assure the southern system gets to drift in the Deep South even longer. Hopefully we get this type of flow to work out once in June, as that's when it would really, really be muggy and the atmosphere would be extremely primed and drop a lot of rain at the drop of a hat...just from daily heating. Anyway, didn't mean to get that long winded, enjoy the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Great write up, man! Feel free to be as long winded as you want, lol. I've been missing those When this recent front finally sagged in, it brought hours and hours of light, steady rain. And thats what I'm hoping for this go around too. Much rather have days of light rain, than an inch an hour for two hours, then done. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 I think we're still game on with the baggy trough or cutoff. There's an outside chance though that it never stalls and instead moves east and minors out across the Carolinas Sunday or Monday. Right now it looks like this will be a very big deal for Texas and Louisiana and possibly all the way to the Florida panhandle. Look how strong the vorticity is still with the system coming into Texas. It should begin to slow down some tomorrow and Saturday , but I think it maintains its structure pretty well, but will feel the effects of the northeast trough (this will slow it down around Alabama--maybe completely stall out). So its tricky what happens beyond Sunday, but if it slows, that will benefit Georgia even more, putting your area under good lift and moisture. Most of the precip events this Spring have been way too progressive in Georgia and the Carolinas, this one actually looks like the opposite, which is why I'm pretty excited for atleast Georgia and north Florida's shot at very good rains soon. Leary about the Carolinas' totals on this one since it would have to stall almost perfectly to get this area sustained showers and storms. But for Alabama (and probably west half of GA) and points west, it looks like a very good period of rain showers and storms on the daily, for about 5 days. There's another Rockies trough that actually may help keep the Deep South system around, by pulling it back toward the west next week, or keeping it stalled (whats left of it will just be a weak mid level cutoff by then). But in May, all we need is a weakeness aloft, ample moisture (high dewpoints) and no capping, good Gulf inflow and weak disturbances. We'll have all that beginning soon, the big question to me is can the Lakes trough Monday drop south enough to pull the southern system out to sea quickly, or will it leave part of the spin behind. I think it leaves part of the spin behind, which will eventually join with the incoming Rockies/So. Plains system, creating a long period of daily storms from Texas, Ok, and points east. For tomorrow and early Saturday, the GFS has had a bullseye for 5 straight days now offshore Galveston, sometimes pulling it inland to around Houston and Lake Charles. I'm a little concerned when GFS is this bullish and consistent on a rain max around there, usually its a sign its seeing a legit threat of flooding. There will be good gulf inflow and a jet streak (maybe more than one) and good diffluence with such a nice upper low coming to a stall soon, that will be the recipe for some area to really get nailed with up to 5" of rain, maybe even more. When the week is said and done I won't be surprised to see Dallas, Houston and Birmingham all top 3" of rain. Of course one big thing to worry about further north is convective robbing. The more linear along the Gulf coast, atleast that will rob the Tennessee Valley at times, but since this is a multiday event, I have no doubt good rains definitely spiral inland very far north toward Tennessee. It's a fun setup (to me all rain is fun). I just wish there was signs of major rains further east in Ga to the Carolinas where the drought has been ongoing a long time, its much wetter west of the Apps (even though I know some areas there are too dry). One other mentionable could be how the ECMWF model builds an Ohio Valley or Lakes ridge next week. I'd like to see that happen esp. furthern north around the Lakes, as that would almost assure the southern system gets to drift in the Deep South even longer. Hopefully we get this type of flow to work out once in June, as that's when it would really, really be muggy and the atmosphere would be extremely primed and drop a lot of rain at the drop of a hat...just from daily heating. Anyway, didn't mean to get that long winded, enjoy the rain! Robert, thanks for the update. Just like old times... However, I must say...I'm hoping Atlanta can avoid a washout Monday afternoon/evening. Heading down to watch the Bravos...sure would be a long trip down and back for a rain out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 I think we're still game on with the baggy trough or cutoff. There's an outside chance though that it never stalls and instead moves east and minors out across the Carolinas Sunday or Monday. Right now it looks like this will be a very big deal for Texas and Louisiana and possibly all the way to the Florida panhandle. Look how strong the vorticity is still with the system coming into Texas. It should begin to slow down some tomorrow and Saturday , but I think it maintains its structure pretty well, but will feel the effects of the northeast trough (this will slow it down around Alabama--maybe completely stall out). So its tricky what happens beyond Sunday, but if it slows, that will benefit Georgia even more, putting your area under good lift and moisture. Most of the precip events this Spring have been way too progressive in Georgia and the Carolinas, this one actually looks like the opposite, which is why I'm pretty excited for atleast Georgia and north Florida's shot at very good rains soon. Leary about the Carolinas' totals on this one since it would have to stall almost perfectly to get this area sustained showers and storms. But for Alabama (and probably west half of GA) and points west, it looks like a very good period of rain showers and storms on the daily, for about 5 days. There's another Rockies trough that actually may help keep the Deep South system around, by pulling it back toward the west next week, or keeping it stalled (whats left of it will just be a weak mid level cutoff by then). But in May, all we need is a weakeness aloft, ample moisture (high dewpoints) and no capping, good Gulf inflow and weak disturbances. We'll have all that beginning soon, the big question to me is can the Lakes trough Monday drop south enough to pull the southern system out to sea quickly, or will it leave part of the spin behind. I think it leaves part of the spin behind, which will eventually join with the incoming Rockies/So. Plains system, creating a long period of daily storms from Texas, Ok, and points east. For tomorrow and early Saturday, the GFS has had a bullseye for 5 straight days now offshore Galveston, sometimes pulling it inland to around Houston and Lake Charles. I'm a little concerned when GFS is this bullish and consistent on a rain max around there, usually its a sign its seeing a legit threat of flooding. There will be good gulf inflow and a jet streak (maybe more than one) and good diffluence with such a nice upper low coming to a stall soon, that will be the recipe for some area to really get nailed with up to 5" of rain, maybe even more. When the week is said and done I won't be surprised to see Dallas, Houston and Birmingham all top 3" of rain. Of course one big thing to worry about further north is convective robbing. The more linear along the Gulf coast, atleast that will rob the Tennessee Valley at times, but since this is a multiday event, I have no doubt good rains definitely spiral inland very far north toward Tennessee. It's a fun setup (to me all rain is fun). I just wish there was signs of major rains further east in Ga to the Carolinas where the drought has been ongoing a long time, its much wetter west of the Apps (even though I know some areas there are too dry). One other mentionable could be how the ECMWF model builds an Ohio Valley or Lakes ridge next week. I'd like to see that happen esp. furthern north around the Lakes, as that would almost assure the southern system gets to drift in the Deep South even longer. Hopefully we get this type of flow to work out once in June, as that's when it would really, really be muggy and the atmosphere would be extremely primed and drop a lot of rain at the drop of a hat...just from daily heating. Anyway, didn't mean to get that long winded, enjoy the rain! Great post! Me too. Good thing we got this rain this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 A gorgeous day here in Savannah today. After three days of very nice rains (couple of inches), we got rewarded today with bright blue skies (with some clouds late), TD's in the 40's, and a pleasant breeze.made for a great walk today! Ahhhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Great post Robert! The recent rains have been great and the weather has been perfect for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Chilly 43.7 IMBY here in Dahlonega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Bottomed out at 46 at KJNX this morning...chilly but refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 41.5 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 46 at Lincolnton, 49 my house this morning. Saw a few 39's in Va (Blacksburg, Staunton) and east Ky. One more chilly morning tomorrow with surface high pressure settling over Va to NC, then the moisture returns and temps climb up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 39.0° chilly degrees this am in Weaverville. never made it out of the 60s yesterday. Looks like a chamber of commerce day with a forecast high of 73° today.....of course I have to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Well that was a big time under performer for MBY...unless you live in the western half of my county where 2-3" was common. Ended up with .26" on Tuesday and only .08" yesterday. Nice and cool this morning at 44.4....brrrr.... Not even that here. I got a whopping 0.10 total. The last month or two has really sucked here. Lost count on how many times rain either woefully underperformed per the models and forecasts or was missed by a few miles. Not sure I've seen the models bust so badly on rain amounts here so many times in a row. I might be wrong but it sure seems like one of the driest springs here in quite in a while. Fortunately/unfortunately, I've had a lot of things going on that have distracted me from screwjob after screwjob but I have not been this bored with the weather...from late fall through now...I don't think ever. I just hope we have some tropical systems this year or a wet summer. From an active weather perspective, it has just sucked for a half year now..and it's really been depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Fortunately/unfortunately, I've had a lot of things going on that have distracted me from screwjob after screwjob but I have not been this bored with the weather...from late fall through now...I don't think ever. I just hope we have some tropical systems this year or a wet summer. From an active weather perspective, it has just sucked for a half year now..and it's really been depressing. That's how it was here from 2005 until about March 2009...the longest boring stretch ever for me. I lucked up on the Summer storms last year for once. Good news is El Nino is brewing so better (more active) times are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Lol, we must have gotten under the same cloud Of course, it took 3 days to give me my .95 Last night felt great, with the fan off, and the blanket on, but it is already warmish this morning. Hope Robert's cut off appears next week. T That makes two of us Not even that here. I got a whopping 0.10 total. The last month or two has really sucked here. Lost count on how many times rain either woefully underperformed per the models and forecasts or was missed by a few miles. Not sure I've seen the models bust so badly on rain amounts here so many times in a row. I might be wrong but it sure seems like one of the driest springs here in quite in a while. Fortunately/unfortunately, I've had a lot of things going on that have distracted me from screwjob after screwjob but I have not been this bored with the weather...from late fall through now...I don't think ever. I just hope we have some tropical systems this year or a wet summer. From an active weather perspective, it has just sucked for a year now..and it's really been depressing. fyp That's how it was here from 2005 until about March 2009...the longest boring stretch ever for me. I lucked up on the Summer storms last year for once. Good news is El Nino is brewing so better (more active) times are ahead. Normal would be a very welcomed change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Love your commentaries and wisdom Robert. Last year this week was the big hail storm here. It was 43 this morning with high clouds. Can it get more beautiful than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 A gorgeous day here in Savannah today. After three days of very nice rains (couple of inches), we got rewarded today with bright blue skies (with some clouds late), TD's in the 40's, and a pleasant breeze.made for a great walk today! Ahhhhh! Hey, Dr. Content! Surely you are doing more than walking what with the roasting 90's you've had. I know you got out the boogie board and skimmed alongside the sand when it got so hot I hope the next time you're coming up 75 you'll drag some of that good rain with you! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 The 12z GFS is spitting out some nice rain totals over most of the SE for early next week.Looks like a slow moving low going across. 1.5'' to 2.5'' across the piedmont of NC,3''to 4'' across the mountains of NC.Let's see if it holds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 The 12z GFS is spitting out some nice rain totals over most of the SE for early next week.Looks like a slow moving low going across. 1.5'' to 2.5'' across the piedmont of NC,3''to 4'' across the mountains of NC.Let's see if it holds though. It looks reasonable. All models now come in looking more in tact with this system...its very healthy looking and will almost literally come to a crawl as it gets closer to the Miss/Ala region. Both GFS and the new ECMWF want to create some kind of cutoff along the east coast possibly near SC, NC or even east Florida by next Friday. Before then though, some very decent rain amounts and the areas that missed out in central GA to central Carolinas should get something pretty decent this time since its a slow mover and not necessarily just a frontal passage. Just updated my site with graphics and text discussion and anyones welcome to view the new post (put this one in the free public section - just click "public"). Have a great Mother's Day weekend to all the moms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 The rain did a little to help the drought. lol Actually the exceptional drought area got bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 39.0° chilly degrees this am in Weaverville. never made it out of the 60s yesterday. Looks like a chamber of commerce day with a forecast high of 73° today.....of course I have to work! Ya it was down right cold this morning! Had a low of 36 degree with frost! I was a little suprised that we had frost this late and got as cold as we did. Just a picture perfect day today. Partly cloudy high of 68 degree and a slight breeze. Wish everyday was like this in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 A crisp 50.1° this am in Weaverville. You can def. feel a diff. in the air from the past few days. Great weather this Spring in the Mnts. Rarely running the heat or air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Yep, I have only used the a/c twice or thrice the entire year, the last time several weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 The rain did a little to help the drought. lol Actually the exceptional drought area got bigger. After 4 straight days of measureable rain, hopefully that red/orange area shrinks some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Oh wee, this weather is simply beautiful. This May has been exactly how May should be, the spring equivalent of October. So many people eating on sidewalks, running, walking the dog, sitting in the grass. How sweet it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 After 4 straight days of measureable rain, hopefully that red/orange area shrinks some Here is the latest one. Looks like there has been improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Here is the latest one. Looks like there has been improvements. Sure as hell has not been any improvement here. It's already dusty after that "big rain" I got. Grass is dying, lakes and creeks are way down and it's only may. And to add insult to injury, areas southeast of me got several good storms this week, in some cases adding up to 3 plus inches. Not a drop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I've seen only sun since last Sunday. Had to go back to watering about mid week. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moose4 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Hey guys, got a question. My employer is transferring me from Durham to Charlotte in a couple weeks and I'll probably end up living somewhere either along the I-485 corridor in eastern Mecklenburg County, or maybe in Cabarrus County out toward Concord or even Kannapolis (my job is off Mallard Creek Church Road close to I-85). I know the weather's not really going to be all that different from here in the Bull City since it's only a 125-mile move, but is there any more chance of snow in the CLT metro area than in the Triangle? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Some rain and wind here from T.S Alberto. Didn't even have a chance of rain today. The fun stuff is at the coast. Here are some of the raimfall estimates. None of our CWA had a chance of rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Hey guys, got a question. My employer is transferring me from Durham to Charlotte in a couple weeks and I'll probably end up living somewhere either along the I-485 corridor in eastern Mecklenburg County, or maybe in Cabarrus County out toward Concord or even Kannapolis (my job is off Mallard Creek Church Road close to I-85). I know the weather's not really going to be all that different from here in the Bull City since it's only a 125-mile move, but is there any more chance of snow in the CLT metro area than in the Triangle? Thanks. It is not much of a difference, but generally Durham gets more snow than the Charlotte area. Some years, it can be a significant difference, mainly because RDU is more likely to get in on Noreaster action than Charlotte, and is usually colder during major Arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.