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A negative departure May looks definate


Mikehobbyst

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The models and ensembles have been hinting at stalled front/cut-off low pattern after this week. That might keep us out the big or prolonged heat for awhile. But as long don't see too many days that are just cloudy and rainy, I think we'll still wind up a positive departure for May.

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The models and ensembles have been hinting at stalled front/cut-off low pattern after this week. That might keep us out the big or prolonged heat for awhile. But as long don't see too many days that are just cloudy and rainy, I think we'll still wind up a positive departure for May.

Agreed.

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According to what some have said if we end may with a +departure then summer may be cooler than normal.

Be careful. These associations have time and time again proven to fail. Remember winter 2011-12 was suppose to have a negative AO because the summer did.

That being said, a cool summer is always a concern with the type of regime we are headed for, especially July-Aug.

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Yesterday was a -2 and NYC is now -.9 for the month.

Explain to me how the avg temp so far can be -.9 below normal when you look at their heating degree day summary and there is supposed to be 70 so far and they have only had 66 through May 11.

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Yesterday was a -2 and NYC is now -.9 for the month.

Might be a vegetation issue again with Central Park. Because every other Upton climo station is has higher departures. For yesterday and the month overall. Obviously, NYC doesn't represent the entire area.

These were Friday's maxes/departures for those maxes. Every climo station hit 70+ yesterday and had positive departure, except Central Park:

NYC 68/-2

LGA 71/+1

JFK 71/+4

ISP 70/+4

BDR 71/+5

EWR 73/+2

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Might be a vegetation issue again with Central Park. Because every other Upton climo station is has higher departures. For yesterday and the month overall. Obviously, NYC doesn't represent the entire area.

These were Friday's maxes/departures for those maxes. Every climo station hit 70+ yesterday and had positive departure, except Central Park:

NYC 68/-2

LGA 71/+1

JFK 71/+4

ISP 70/+4

BDR 71/+5

EWR 73/+2

When did vegetation become an issue in central park?

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are you guys using your own weather stations to compute the average temps for the month ?- I am just using the central park NYC and they are above normal - 66 heating degree days so far and 70 is the norm

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Explain to me how the avg temp so far can be -.9 below normal when you look at their heating degree day summary and there is supposed to be 70 so far and they have only had 66 through May 11.

I'm not sure why you're having so much difficultly with this.

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are you guys using your own weather stations to compute the average temps for the month ?- I am just using the central park NYC and they are above normal - 66 heating degree days so far and 70 is the norm

The data ag provided is the official data from central park. The avg temp this month is lower than the normal avg. not that difficult.

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I'm not sure why you're having so much difficultly with this.

if the temp was below normal wouldn't we be using more heating degree days ? But central park has less then normal 66 when it should be 70 to be normal.....

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Looks like another easterly flow pattern could set up late in the week and weekend as a cutoff or upper disturbance sets up south of us and ridging develops north of us, which would create easterly flow here until the cutoff dissipates or heads east. Could be a rare pattern where 80s get way to the north of us, even into NNE and we're stuck and socked in with cold ocean air. Hopefully it doesn't come to pass but the Euro's been somewhat persistent over the last few runs.

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