Dark Energy Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 DC averaging 30 degrees warmer?... as of 5/7... city....Ave max/min...rainfall DC....78.7....60.1....0.29" PH....70.1....53.9....0.49" NY....63.6....52.3....1.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 as of 5/7... city....Ave max/min...rainfall DC....78.7....60.1....0.29" PH....70.1....53.9....0.49" NY....63.6....52.3....1.28" 15 degrees and only 200 miles south i would call that anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 If the original post was toned down a bit, it wouldn't have been that bad of a forecast for May thus far. Boston is significantly colder than DCA. However, the spread in anomalies will decrease as the month continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Mike FTW? How can you say FTW when he was forecasting a 55 degree max in NYC during the first two weeks and that's between 10-20 degrees below what has happened? The Month to date isn't even at -1 for departures to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 How can you say FTW when he was forecasting a 55 degree max in NYC during the first two weeks and that's between 10-20 degrees below what has happened? The Month to date isn't even at -1 for departures to boot. You realize that not only was his post tongue in cheek, but it was made May 2nd, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Just as the hot Mays of 1969 and 2000 fed into lousy summers, I hope this May's patterns means we have a good summer. Certainly held true in 2005. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 from my experience cloudy, showery, cool Mays lead into hot summers and it seems like when May is hot then June is simply awful, better to get it out of the way now so we get a nice hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I don't think we could go by the assumption that may temps by themselves will have that much of an impact on summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 current metro departures for the month: EWR +1 NYC -.4 LGA 0 JFK +.2 BDR +.9 ISP +.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Yeah despite all the talk about how cool and wet it has been, it has actually been a very normal May so far. Yes the overnight lows have compensated for below normal highs so when its 62 and drizzly in the afternoon it would seem as though we're running below normal. I think with the warmup coming this weekend (though nothing torchy) we are well on our way to another above normal month. current metro departures for the month: EWR +1 NYC -.4 LGA 0 JFK +.2 BDR +.9 ISP +.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Yeah despite all the talk about how cool and wet it has been, it has actually been a very normal May so far. Yes the overnight lows have compensated for below normal highs so when its 62 and drizzly in the afternoon it would seem as though we're running below normal. I think with the warmup coming this weekend (though nothing torchy) we are well on our way to another above normal month. Its been wet. JFK and also LI are 2"+ above normal so far with rain. The rest of the NYC area is .50"-1" above normal so far. Temps have been as normal as they can be so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I don't think we could go by the assumption that may temps by themselves will have that much of an impact on summer. people are already forgetting about 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 people are already forgetting about 2010 The 1st 9 days of May 2010 featured major heat and major positive departures. Nothing like this year so far, which has been normal weather. The 1st 5 days of May in 2010 all cracked 80 degrees and the next 4 days were all over 72 degrees. May 2009 so far is a good match for the 1st 10 days. May 2009 featured very rainy and normal to below normal temps from May 1st-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 people are already forgetting about 2010 2002 had some cold mornings around the 20th...That Summer was hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 For the city on east yes, west of the city no. Its been wet. JFK and also LI are 2"+ above normal so far with rain. The rest of the NYC area is .50"-1" above normal so far. Temps have been as normal as they can be so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 For the city on east yes, west of the city no. Newark is .23" above normal with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 from my experience cloudy, showery, cool Mays lead into hot summers and it seems like when May is hot then June is simply awful, better to get it out of the way now so we get a nice hot summer True, but June 1969 and 2000 were far better than the ensuing Julys. Though July 1969 did feature 3-4 90+ days while July 2000 didn't come close to 90. I don't know if June 2000 had a positive departure, but June 1969 certainly did. Also, in 1970 the beginning-middle of May was rather hot, with one 90 on May 9, and June was not shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The 1st 9 days of May 2010 featured major heat and major positive departures. Nothing like this year so far, which has been normal weather. The 1st 5 days of May in 2010 all cracked 80 degrees and the next 4 days were all over 72 degrees. May 2009 so far is a good match for the 1st 10 days. May 2009 featured very rainy and normal to below normal temps from May 1st-10th. May 2009 did hit 87 the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. The less said about 2009 the better. 2002 had some cold mornings around the 20th...That Summer was hot... It was hot but the heat started in April, took a pause, and resumed in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I'll gladly take a repeat of the summer of 2002 if it means we get to repeat the winter that followed May 2009 did hit 87 the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. The less said about 2009 the better. It was hot but the heat started in April, took a pause, and resumed in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 It looks like may will be close to normal (+1 -1) so even if you were to use may as an analog for the summer it won't offer much of a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I'll gladly take a repeat of the summer of 2002 if it means we get to repeat the winter that followed Appropros of what you quoted, would a repeat of 2009-10 be worthwhile if it follows a crappy summer like that of 2009? I don't think so myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Well I hate heat so I'd love that....though not sure I could survive another 2/6/10. 2010-11 repeat would be better Appropros of what you quoted, would a repeat of 2009-10 be worthwhile if it follows a crappy summer like that of 2009? I don't think so myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The 1st 9 days of May 2010 featured major heat and major positive departures. Nothing like this year so far, which has been normal weather. The 1st 5 days of May in 2010 all cracked 80 degrees and the next 4 days were all over 72 degrees. May 2009 so far is a good match for the 1st 10 days. May 2009 featured very rainy and normal to below normal temps from May 1st-10th. people think cold may = warm summer and 2010 disproves that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 You realize that not only was his post tongue in cheek, but it was made May 2nd, right? You do realize that not only does the history of his post show pro-cold, but you cannot make the "assumption" that it is made tongue in cheek with that in mind. The date of the post means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 people think cold may = warm summer and 2010 disproves that If anyone actually thinks one thing = another, then they don't know much about weather. Best correlations we find are generally .6 to .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 people think cold may = warm summer and 2010 disproves that May 2010 was warm in the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 So Far the NYC metro's temp is slightly above normal in May BUT if the 6Z GFS is at all accurate good chance May will feature the first below average monthly temp of the year - with above normal precip http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 So Far the NYC metro's temp is slightly above normal in May BUT if the 6Z GFS is at all accurate good chance May will feature the first below average monthly temp of the year - with above normal precip http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR NYC is slightly BELOW normal. Through yesterday NYC is -.7 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 So Far the NYC metro's temp is slightly above normal in May BUT if the 6Z GFS is at all accurate good chance May will feature the first below average monthly temp of the year - with above normal precip http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR pure text printout of the long range gfs... solid forecast strategy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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