Mikehobbyst Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This looks like one of the worst Mays ever for the NYC area. Looks cloudy and boring drizzzzzly pattern from May 1st to May 15th. Based on the Greenland Block and - NAO for 10-15 days, maybe 20-30 days, there is a slight possibility of May having sunshine only 5-7 days of the whole month, and possibly negative departues for 20+ days. I would say with 75-80 percent confidence. May need to wait until a few days before Memorial Day to get even a hint of real nice May weather. Being fully serious. Looks as bad or worse than May 2005 at this point.... Mets please chime in regarding this. cherish the sun today, because it may not show itself again until the last 1.5 weeks of May 2012. Models completely show this look, e.g. GFS, GGEM and GEFS extended thru at least 5/15 at the most optimistic. FYI this week's warm sector is about cancelled Thurs thru Sunday for this first week of May on virtually all models. 55 F will likely be the max temp for the first two weeks of May in NYC local and surrounding areas, with possible -5 to -8 departures for consecutive 15 days ! DC will likely average 30 degrees warmer for highs! with Philly 20-25 degrees warmer with highs the first two weeks which will be unreal and a complete May torture month for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Back-door's usually do not produce sustained periods of cold weather. Its hard to keep the wind east for more then a few days in a row. So I think even if there is some truth to the above we will see some warm days mixed in. Also, heading into may the sun is strong enough that unless we are completely cloudy on a given day, even with an East wind LI and NYC will still warm decently. Further water temps offshore are still above normal limiting the cooling potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I doubt it...i believe our torch pattern is over for now....but above normal will rule....april will finish around +2....which was achieve with the cooler week......may i say ends up around +1.....plus this time of year 60's are no longer above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 why do the mods allow this guy to start threads...last year he insisted full leaf out would not occur until Memorial Day if that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Someone's been drinking the blue raspberry kool-aide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Someone's been drinking the blue raspberry kool-aide. With extra raspberry tO it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 He's entertaining to read at least. I remember when he said January would have temps below zero with feet and feet of snow, frozen hudson river. He should write screenplays with an active imagination like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 He's entertaining to read at least. I remember when he said January would have temps below zero with feet and feet of snow, frozen hudson river. He should write screenplays with an active imagination like that. You didn't know? He wrote the day after tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I doubt it...i believe our torch pattern is over for now....but above normal will rule....april will finish around +2....which was achieve with the cooler week......may i say ends up around +1.....plus this time of year 60's are no longer above normal Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 He's entertaining to read at least. I remember when he said January would have temps below zero with feet and feet of snow, frozen hudson river. He should write screenplays with an active imagination like that. We've got a guy like that in our subforum who does the exact same crap, only now he's drought mongering. He called for an epic winter, complete with below zero temps and ice fog on the Delaware from it being frozen over. Makes a forecast and epicly fails everytime, except for Irene, and throws it in anyone's face when they try to say he's wrong. Everyone has to be right once in their life, lol. I wonder if these two collaborate before making forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I doubt it...i believe our torch pattern is over for now....but above normal will rule....april will finish around +2....which was achieve with the cooler week......may i say ends up around +1.....plus this time of year 60's are no longer above normal Actually 60s start to get below starting the second week of May, 70s by mid May are the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Actually 60s start to get below starting the second week of May, 70s by mid May are the norm. Depends where in the 60s you're talking. 65-70 is basically normal for May 1st-15th, and 70-75 is normal for the second half of May. We don't hit 80 until mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Lol lol. On THIS reason alone I'm going to post above normal May temps for the contest. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Im still trying to figure out your thought processes as you write these forecasts. It's mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 can't even spell definite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This looks like one of the worst Mays ever for the NYC area. Looks cloudy and boring drizzzzzly pattern from May 1st to May 15th. Based on the Greenland Block and - NAO for 10-15 days, maybe 20-30 days, there is a slight possibility of May having sunshine only 5-7 days of the whole month, and possibly negative departues for 20+ days. I would say with 75-80 percent confidence. May need to wait until a few days before Memorial Day to get even a hint of real nice May weather. Being fully serious. Looks as bad or worse than May 2005 at this point.... Mets please chime in regarding this. cherish the sun today, because it may not show itself again until the last 1.5 weeks of May 2012. Models completely show this look, e.g. GFS, GGEM and GEFS extended thru at least 5/15 at the most optimistic. FYI this week's warm sector is about cancelled Thurs thru Sunday for this first week of May on virtually all models. 55 F will likely be the max temp for the first two weeks of May in NYC local and surrounding areas, with possible -5 to -8 departures for consecutive 15 days ! DC will likely average 30 degrees warmer for highs! with Philly 20-25 degrees warmer with highs the first two weeks which will be unreal and a complete May torture month for us. DC averaging 30 degrees warmer?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 I feel like this is a routine spring post for him, talking about 50 degree differences from DC to NYC, fog, mist and bare trees through Memorial Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 http://www.americanw...93-1994-upon-us You laugh but the link is for his January 2011 prediction...not a bad one, IMO...out here on L.I....it was arguably the most severe winter month (combination of cold and snow) in 100 years...though his forecast of extraordinary cold was obviously overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The models are showing a warm week to start May, with mostly diurnal rainshowers and thunderstorms until Sunday, which is when the cold front is supposed to push through the area. Tomorrow could very easily be above normal if the warm front pushes through the area quickly and the sun comes out for a few hours in the afternoon. If the warm front stays north for the remainder of the week, and lows pass to our north, its likely that we start out 2-3 degrees above average to begin the month, which averages around 72-73 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 He is right on the money today, gotta give him that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 WTF!!! What is this forecast DC 30 degrees warmer and philly 20 degrees warmer. And 55 as max high for nyc first two weeks of may? I dunno where he got his info from. Maybe he's trying to carry the cold card for JB through may, who knows. But damn talk about putting your head out on the chopping block and setting up for an EPIC dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 He is right on the money today, gotta give him that! I don't think anyone took umbridge with him about today being cold and drizzlely, because there was always a chance that this could happen. His forecast for the entire month was way too extreme. He called for a max of 55 degrees for the first two weeks, and was flat out wrong on May 1. With 2 hours of sunlight in the afternoon, the temperature rose from 62 to 71 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Mike FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I'm not even going to get into the 55 degree maximum, but the NWS has a 23 degree difference between DC and NYC tomorrow - the only aspect of this forecast that might surprisingly even come anything close to reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Looks like DCA had a pretty big temp bust today. They were forecasted to get into the low/mid 80s but an ELY wind kept them in the mid/upper 60s most of the day. Torch stayed immediately to their SW -- near 90 in RIC and RDU. The next couple days should feature that heat slowly approaching the PHL/NYC area, but it won't really be as impressive as the warmth we saw in mid April. Even still, Friday should be 80+ for most places W and S of NYC. No real torching for LI and New England. Pattern continues to look seasonable to slightly above avg temps to me for May 1-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 another cool drizzly crappy day. the worst type of weather in my opinion. they were calling for lower 70's and sunshine on Saturday and now they are saying lower to mid 60's with clouds and rain. blah.. i hope the outlandish prediction does not come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I take my laughs back. Upton's discussion this morning for the rest of the week into next weekend is a horror, with a coastal storm Thursday and low gets cut off Friday through Saturday. This weekend--on Long Island at least--may not have been rain out but it's been cloudy and cool. It's been a while since I've had the frustrating 2009 or May 2005 feeling. I guess I better up my levels of vitamin D since the Sun appears to disappear most of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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