TNE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Friday, May 4th, 2012 (Medium Range Analysis/Discussion): A piece of the surface instability from the Midwest advects into our area on Friday. The latest GFS runs show inland areas to be in the 80s and dew-points to approach 70F. The Surface Instability is on the strong side and looks to be between 2000-3000 j/kg near the PA/NJ border, and the Best Lifted Index is forecasted to be near -6C. Surface Instability (GFS) for Friday Afternoon: Surface Analysis indicates a developing boundary somewhere near the PA/NJ border as an Inverted Upper Trough sits just south of our area. The Surface Boundary is best described by the Northwest Winds building down from a High Pressure in Canada and the Northeast Winds from a High Pressure over the Labrador Sea. Surface Instability in association with the high dewpoints and the surface heating is strongest near the tail-end of the Surface Boundary. The instability and the boundary itself will be propagating east as the westerly flow builds in. Surface Boundary Analysis (10m): Inverted Upper Trough (300mb): Things will change, albeit the instability potential is highest so far this year and might bring our first taste of summer. -Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Shear is virtually non-existent and with winds coming from the NW in the llvls that will really limit convergence. Plus the GFS is paining dewpoints in the 70F-75F range in that area of higher instability...those dewpoints are likely overdone, therefore, the instability is drastically overdone. Not saying there won't be a strong storm or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 0z GFS still has pretty nasty instability numbers, however, it seems to be a bit more realistic with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60's. However, with a very steep lapse rate environment in place that would really add to the instability. Shear is meh but steep lapse rates/high instability could lead to a decent hail threat and inverted-v look could make for some gusty downbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Actually looks like an EML could try and advect into the region...pattern does seem to support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Actually looks like an EML could try and advect into the region...pattern does seem to support that. Last years EML event in July? Really produced for the NYC region. That being said, don't believe this is main page worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.