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Warm to cool to ? - May Obs/Discussion Thread


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Rain makes the fishing better. Lightning makes it exciting. Good luck. Never fished there. I'm guessing you're below the fall line?

I caught 29 bass once I got there, the temp forecast was a big bust. Today, I need to cut grass but it needs to dry out which doesn't look that likely based on the radar. I also want to get my tomato plants in the garden today or tomorrow.

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Maybe the southern part of Ballenger Creek.  I'm a mile SW of the 70, 270, and 340 and Mrs. J about a mile or two west of me...storms and rain avoid us like the plague.  The MoCo and Frederick County lines are always the sweet spot.

Nice Frederick split shaping up right now :axe:

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would think they'd slice the eastern section of the slight at least.. maybe as close as 95 and east. instability not forecast to come back too well. may be ok further west.. next 500 energy comes in a bit late tho.

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Baking here..

yeah but we're about to get cloud debris for peak heating and the front is not really moving much--may even back slightly during the afternoon. i guess it could help as a zone for activity. ruc forecasts for sfc cape are meager in the east later. could be elevated activity tho.

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yeah but we're about to get cloud debris for peak heating and the front is not really moving much--may even back slightly during the afternoon. i guess it could help as a zone for activity. ruc forecasts for sfc cape are meager in the east later. could be elevated activity tho.

I am only expecting large hail (quarter to maybe half dollar size) for severe today

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yeah but we're about to get cloud debris for peak heating and the front is not really moving much--may even back slightly during the afternoon. i guess it could help as a zone for activity. ruc forecasts for sfc cape are meager in the east later. could be elevated activity tho.

I think a day slightly better than yesterday would be a good call

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

SOUTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR UPPER MARLBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RHODE RIVER...

SHADY SIDE...

LONDONTOWNE...

GALESVILLE...

MAYO...

SOUTH RIVER...

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Doesn't seem we took that bad of a hit based on teh 1700z SPC mesoanalysis... -3 to -5 LI's... LL's 7.0-7.5 C/KM... ML are around 6.5 C/KM... 1000-1500 MLCAPE and 1500-2500 SBCAPE...

mid 60s DPs amd temps approaching 80

Shear is weak as ****ake mushrooms... so I guess we hope for boundaries

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http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0694.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OHIO...MUCH OF PA...SRN NJ INTO DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041726Z - 041930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY UNORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR

PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A

POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM

THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO CNTRL PA AND NERN OH IN A WARM...MOIST AIR

MASS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM

S-CNTRL NY WWD ACROSS NRN OH. FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO ERN

VA...A SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE

UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG

AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND

20-30 KT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND

COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND

STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/04/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

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