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Warm to cool to ? - May Obs/Discussion Thread


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MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half.

Unless LWX sends up a balloon for a SPEC 17z... I think today makes sense IMO. But I see your point

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MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half.

Perhaps...but at the same time, it's not all about instability. You can have 4-5000 CAPE and only a slight risk if there's not any shear (ie pulse storms)

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If we are going to have hot weather this summer, this is the way to do it. A few days of hot followed by refreshing cool downs and plenty of rain to keep everything greened up. It's early, but I like it so far. Well, I'd like it better if it were never above 85, but you take what you can get.

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If we are going to have hot weather this summer, this is the way to do it. A few days of hot followed by refreshing cool downs and plenty of rain to keep everything greened up. It's early, but I like it so far. Well, I'd like it better if it were never above 85, but you take what you can get.

We eastern suburbs are still waiting for the "plenty of rain" It's dry in mby.

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Am I missing something on these storms in MD/VA/WV? None of them look even borderline severe.

Just cause severe storms are popping up when you said the better dynamics are to our north, doesn't mean you gotta get feisty :P

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Just cause severe storms are popping up when you said the better dynamics are to our north, doesn't mean you gotta get feisty :P

I never doubted storms would fire in the mountains, even pulse to severe levels, but I find I doubt the will make it east of a Frederick / Leesburg / Mason-Dixon Line.

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We eastern suburbs are still waiting for the "plenty of rain" It's dry in mby.

Right now, it seems flipped from last year. Radar estimates show eastern counties as 50% of normal and western areas are near 90% to even over 100%. I remember at one point last year, parts of Baltimore observed 15" of rain over like 90 days of summer and Frederick west was at 2". Hopefully you get some rain today.

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I never doubted storms would fire in the mountains, even pulse to severe levels, but I find I doubt the will make it east of a Frederick / Leesburg / Mason-Dixon Line.

This area can surprise. All i can say is wait and see.

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Really haven't been paying much attention to it.....are we supposed to get any of the affects from the remains of Beryl? Looks like its just spinning away in south central Georgia right now with little to no movement, but showers are reaching as far north as extreme SE VA.

As for tonight....looking forward to some post dinner storms.

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Really haven't been paying much attention to it.....are we supposed to get any of the affects from the remains of Beryl? Looks like its just spinning away in south central Georgia right now with little to no movement, but showers are reaching as far north as extreme SE VA.

As for tonight....looking forward to some post dinner storms.

The cold front tonight will shove it OTS before being able to impact our area

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