snowfan Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Mt Washington reported a 108.1 mph downburst with a storm earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SLGT risk for EZF north now for us per 1630 OTLK... 15% hail/wind (30% hail/wind line at Mason Dixon line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Anyways, back to local weather... SLight risk shifted south to include DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 12z high res models still showing a line of showers/storms to come through later. Though, not as robust as the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z The showers popping up near VA border were picked up by HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z ~3000 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1700z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 ~3000 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1700z MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half. Unless LWX sends up a balloon for a SPEC 17z... I think today makes sense IMO. But I see your point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 T shirt # 4 for the day since 1030am, it is freakin nasty out there 88/69 here, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Chances we get a watch? I say 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half. Perhaps...but at the same time, it's not all about instability. You can have 4-5000 CAPE and only a slight risk if there's not any shear (ie pulse storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We actually have a decent low level lapse rate for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 T shirt # 4 for the day since 1030am, it is freakin nasty out there 88/69 here, ugh Wx obs, not fashion you lunkhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Perhaps...but at the same time, it's not all about instability. You can have 4-5000 CAPE and only a slight risk if there's not any shear (ie pulse storms) Believe me, I know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If we are going to have hot weather this summer, this is the way to do it. A few days of hot followed by refreshing cool downs and plenty of rain to keep everything greened up. It's early, but I like it so far. Well, I'd like it better if it were never above 85, but you take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Believe me, I know that. Don't doubt it! We are all well versed in severe failures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If we are going to have hot weather this summer, this is the way to do it. A few days of hot followed by refreshing cool downs and plenty of rain to keep everything greened up. It's early, but I like it so far. Well, I'd like it better if it were never above 85, but you take what you can get. We eastern suburbs are still waiting for the "plenty of rain" It's dry in mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm feeling good about storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 88/70.........very muggy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 New cell down by Winchester headed towards Charles Town,WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 now the entire county in under a warning--new storm popped up right on I-81. Just spoke to the Mrs. at home. Getting a lot of thunder there now. Radar looks like a hit for both of our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Am I missing something on these storms in MD/VA/WV? None of them look even borderline severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Am I missing something on these storms in MD/VA/WV? None of them look even borderline severe. Agreed, they're using the rather safe than sorry approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Am I missing something on these storms in MD/VA/WV? None of them look even borderline severe. Just cause severe storms are popping up when you said the better dynamics are to our north, doesn't mean you gotta get feisty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Heat index of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Heat index of 96 Feels nice out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just cause severe storms are popping up when you said the better dynamics are to our north, doesn't mean you gotta get feisty I never doubted storms would fire in the mountains, even pulse to severe levels, but I find I doubt the will make it east of a Frederick / Leesburg / Mason-Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We eastern suburbs are still waiting for the "plenty of rain" It's dry in mby. Right now, it seems flipped from last year. Radar estimates show eastern counties as 50% of normal and western areas are near 90% to even over 100%. I remember at one point last year, parts of Baltimore observed 15" of rain over like 90 days of summer and Frederick west was at 2". Hopefully you get some rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wx obs, not fashion you lunkhead I see you made the local paper in your favorite shirt 88/70 with clouds and sun, winds picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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