Mrs.J Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Storms today? Please?! No... my swamp, I mean back yard needs to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just got home and I have a couple branches down and epic shutter damage. Grass looks long already but I can be easily convinced to let it slide today. Too hot. but how are your trash can lids??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 but how are your trash can lids??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 78 and a bit muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 LWX sounds bullish tonight for t'storms tomorrow. Guess we'll see what it looks like in the morning for severe. ABUNDANT MSTR THRU A DP LYR WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL INSTBY...WITH CAPE VALUES NR 2000 J/KG XPCD. DPLY-MIXED AMS WITH MAXIMA IN UPR 80S-LWR 90S WILL OFFER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PSBLY MARGINALLY-SVR HAIL /LMTD BY FRZG LVL AT 13.5-14.0 KFT/. TSTMS XPCD TO FORM MID-AFTN AS THETA-E RDG AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF BCM ALIGNED. CELLS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CNVCTV CLUSTERS WITH INCRG THREAT OF SVR WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL FORM LATE TUE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE RGN TUE EVE. ALTHOUGH GREATEST THREAT OF SVR WX WILL BE IN NWRN ZONES...WHERE WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST AND UPWD MOTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED... SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD GIVEN XPCD MDT INSTBY IN ENTIRE RGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 So who gets to meh our svr weather chance today with no Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 So who gets to meh our svr weather chance today with no Ian? Look at the extended period severe outlook! SPC thinks decent chances of severe for Friday. Still, no threat area on the map yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 All the high res models (HRW-ARW, HRW-NMM and WRF-NMM) bring a line of showers/storms into central MD around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 All the high res models (HRW-ARW, HRW-NMM and WRF-NMM) bring a line of showers/storms into central MD around 00z They will all fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 All the high res models (HRW-ARW, HRW-NMM and WRF-NMM) bring a line of showers/storms into central MD around 00z add the HRRR and the RAP to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Woohoo just inside the slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Woohoo just inside the slight 30% not far either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Best dynamics stay north...maybe someone gets a tail end Charlie. Meh. 84/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Best dynamics stay north...maybe someone gets a tail end Charlie. Meh. 84/70. Pulse severe then seems probable. The models are pretty emphatic on giving at least a cluster of storms in the area. More excited for Friday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Moderate risk coming for areas in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Moderate risk coming for areas in NY I'm impressed! Rare for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm impressed! Rare for that area. Terrain should help maintain some vigorous updrafts across NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Terrain should help maintain some vigorous updrafts across NY. Paul (weatherwiz) is pulling this face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Terrain should help maintain some vigorous updrafts across NY. That cell in the western Finger Lakes area has hail up to 3.25". The one in Oswego County at 2.5". That's big time stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 That cell in the western Finger Lakes area has hail up to 3.25". The one in Oswego County at 2.5". That's big time stuff. Is that a report or indicated by radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Interesting...tornado watch out for central New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Is that a report or indicated by radar? Radar indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Mt Washington reported a 108.1 mph downburst with a storm earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SLGT risk for EZF north now for us per 1630 OTLK... 15% hail/wind (30% hail/wind line at Mason Dixon line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Anyways, back to local weather... SLight risk shifted south to include DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 12z high res models still showing a line of showers/storms to come through later. Though, not as robust as the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z The showers popping up near VA border were picked up by HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC meso has DC area at 2500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1600z ~3000 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1700z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 ~3000 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE at 1700z MESO Analysis page seems to have ridiculously high numbers from time to time. There have been times in the past when it shows LI's at -11, SBCAPE 5000+, etc and it's only a slight risk day. I always cut the numbers in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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