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Warm to cool to ? - May Obs/Discussion Thread


MN Transplant

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Got up to go fishing and then looked at radar. Now I'm waiting for the showers to move through before leaving for the Potomac.

Rain makes the fishing better. Lightning makes it exciting. Good luck. Never fished there. I'm guessing you're below the fall line?

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Got up to go fishing and then looked at radar. Now I'm waiting for the showers to move through before leaving for the Potomac.

Wes, you could have slept in until 8 and just gone to the Giant for your fish

probably wouldn't have to wait as long either :unsure:

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Meso discussion for VA: http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0659.html

mcd0659.gif

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING INVERSION HAS QUICKLY MIXED OUT ACROSS

MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED

INTO THE 80S WITH SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE

VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE

MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV. THIS DISTURBANCE IS

EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD

CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EWD

INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL/STRONG WINDS. LIMITING

FACTORS INCLUDE WEAK SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOB 30 KTS/ AND

SYNOPTIC SCALE HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED RIDGING OVER

THE AREA. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN

VA...WHICH SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT

ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE IS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS

WEAKER. REGARDLESS...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN

ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED.

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Not looking to impressive on radar this afternoon , some decent storms though in the lower mountains to the west on I 70/68 between Hancock and Hagerstown and the one just south of Winchester, VA on I 81 looks the best right now

Yea saw those and was wondering if they will hold to get in MD. Kind of hoping so. Currently 84.7 here.

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Lets go the other direction in our new MD :lol:

mcd0664.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0356 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OH/WESTERN PA/FAR WESTERN NY TO WV

PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022056Z - 022300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/POTENTIALLY

INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST

OH/WESTERN PA AND EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN NY...SOUTHEASTWARD TO

WESTERN MD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A WARM FRONT...VISIBLE SATELLITE

TRENDS REFLECT SOME INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS

ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MD/WV PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN VA...WITH A FEW TSTMS AS OF

21Z. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE CU FIELD HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY FLAT

FARTHER WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ASSORTMENT OF SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG INDICATIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN

UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA AND EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN NY. THIS WOULD

LIKELY BE TIED OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER

ONTARIO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/NEAR-LAKE

CONVERGENCE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM

OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL COULD INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING SUCH

THAT A WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

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FWIW, 1500z LWX 4km WRF-ARW tries to bring in a complex from PA into the metro region between 1-3 AM... its weakening, but there are some portions that look healthy. 1200z WRF-NMM4N does same... perhaps an hour or two later, but is def weaker and it falls apart as it reaches the metro region

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