MN Transplant Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 80's all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 GFS continues to like 90 for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Wind shear will be weak, but it looks like a good amount of CAPE will be around on Thursday for isolated pulse-type severe storms. Effin ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Ok just saw the Friday forecast. Heat index of 102 possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Oops. It's May now so obs go here. Mod rains this morning with the line of showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 0.15" feels like a lot more when you are walking the dog for the bulk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Had some storms roll through early this morning. I did not hear them but my husband did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Had a good amount of thunder and lightning at around 6:15 or so this morning - nice soaking rains to go along with it. But it made the ride up 395 more hellish than normal, especially for the early commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Currently 75 but very humid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 This is gonna be a nice weak... a warm (but not too warm) and somewhat humid period before a nice relieving cool air mass next week. If I can't have severe I'll take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 This is gonna be a nice weak... a warm (but not too warm) and somewhat humid period before a nice relieving cool air mass next week. If I can't have severe I'll take this. SPC Day 2 1730 OTLK has us in SLGT risk tomorrow... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 SPC Day 2 1730 OTLK has us in SLGT risk tomorrow... thoughts? I think we'd be fine with a See Text. Stuff during the day could produce some small hailers, especially if they can play off of whatever boundary might be left over from tonight's MCS after it dies over the mountains. Some high clouds could linger over the region from tonight's anticipated storms, so that could inhibit some of the instability (which is a modest 1000-2000 J/kg on the 12z models). Latest models showing an elevated cluster of storms coming in tomorrow night... some more hail possible with that, but the elevated instability isn't that impressive. Shear will be on the weak side throughout tomorrow as well, so if we can't get the higher instability we probably won't get much in the way of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 I think we'd be fine with a See Text. Stuff during the day could produce some small hailers, especially if they can play off of whatever boundary might be left over from tonight's MCS after it dies over the mountains. Some high clouds could linger over the region from tonight's anticipated storms, so that could inhibit some of the instability (which is a modest 1000-2000 J/kg on the 12z models). Latest models showing an elevated cluster of storms coming in tomorrow night... some more hail possible with that, but the elevated instability isn't that impressive. Shear will be on the weak side throughout tomorrow as well, so if we can't get the higher instability we probably won't get much in the way of severe. Thanks . I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Thanks . I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV? I don't think tonight's storms will make it east of the mountains, but yes those storms would be MCS remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 Thanks . I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV? The models keep wanting to send an MCS at us, and then it dies off before it gets here. Sometimes they do hang on a little longer than numerical guidance would have us think, though. Low 80s with low 60s DPs should not feel as gross as it does. I'm done with summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Low 80s with low 60s DPs should not feel as gross as it does. I'm done with summer. Extended summer >>> extended winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 82 fricken degrees?! May=summer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 Fun fact, 4 of the 5 first of the months (Jan 1, Feb 1, etc) have been way above normal this year. +13, +23, +16, +4, at least +10 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 82 fricken degrees?! May=summer now The average high for June 11th is 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Im 79/58 up on the mountain at 210' Most of downtown Is 81/82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The average high for June 11th is 83. I might generate some 10 year non smoothed weekly numbers to see how accurate the 30 yrs norms are. Is our average really 71? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 0.44" from the storm last night around midnight. 90 still in my forecast for Thursday. DP at 67 feels humid as hell outside with some sun poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 I might generate some 10 year non smoothed weekly numbers to see how accurate the 30 yrs norms are. Is our average really 71? Interesting 1981-2010 smoothed norm max for May 1-7: 72.3 Actual Average for May 1-7, 2001 - 2010: 73.1 pretty darn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for southern VA: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0219.html DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN NC. MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Tornado Watch for Western WV Until ! AM URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222...RESENT NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 630 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS OHIO TO 45 MILES WEST OF HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN IL MCV. ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG AND S OF W-E WARM/STNRY FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST S OF INTERSTATE ROUTE 70. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD TORNADOES...SETUP MAY YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS 40-50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV CONTINUES EAST INTO OH/NRN WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Can we get Justin Berk to not rhyme His FB posts like that are a waste of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Would seem that mess of storms in WV might send a bit of rain across the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 New cell just boomered really loudly in Gaithersburg a minute ago. Woooooooooo storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Radar of the storms popping up overhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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