DeltaPilot Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I gotta ask the experts here...what is that? Satellite shows what "looks" to be outflow on the northwestern side of that? Havent done any study on it this am, got a short notice call out on a trip this am and was wondering what others thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I gotta ask the experts here...what is that? Satellite shows what "looks" to be outflow on the northwestern side of that? Havent done any study on it this am, got a short notice call out on a trip this am and was wondering what others thought! Upper trough moving WNW into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 It's just a trough and dumping a lot of rain in SoFla. It'll definitely put a sizable dent in it down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Interesting AFD from Miami: http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=MFL&StateCode=FL&SafeCityName=Miami Discussion... infrared satellite this morning showed an extra-tropical/hybrid looking system developing over the Florida Straits. Precipitable waters are expected to increase up to 2-2.2 inches along the East Coast...which is above the 99th percentile and near or even exceeding record values for this time of year. This is a very interesting setup for very heavy rain across South Florida with the inverted trough bringing deep southerly flow over the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and then converging on South Florida...20-30 knot winds over the Atlantic waters creating coastal convergence (especially at night)...model soundings indicating high precipitable waters above 99th percentile and skinny cape...and weak winds aloft as the middle/upper level low moves over South Florida. All of these add up to perfect ingredients for heavy rain across the region...especially along the East Coast from central Palm Beach County southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Defintiely interesting looking on the sat this am..thanks, I thought it was a trough but it just had more spin to it, especially for down there even though I know its a bit early for tropical dev. And no im not a "weenie" just no time to go look at charts today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Looks like this is developing some sort of hybrid low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 10m Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Our friend the Canadian has been suggesting a weak attempt at development, dying as it reached cooler Gulf waters (or got closer to the Westerlies) and bringing some rain to Louisiana off and off for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 10m Winds That apparent surface circulation appears to be drifting south and falling apart quite rapidly now. Whatever that was was probably just a shallow convectively-generated vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 That apparent surface circulation appears to be drifting south and falling apart quite rapidly now. Whatever that was was probably just a shallow convectively-generated vortex. Indeed, we'll see many of those popping out of the the broader trough over the next few days. This could certainly become a sub-tropical or tropical storm, but it needs several days of brewing. Going to be an extreme rain event for South Florida regardless, GFS showing 5-10" of rain. I rarely call my parents to tell them about the weather, but had to give them a heads up this time since things could get dangerous. Some very low-lying areas in SE Florida, most of it was a swamp less than 100 years ago afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Indeed, we'll see many of those popping out of the the broader trough over the next few days. This could certainly become a sub-tropical or tropical storm, but it needs several days of brewing. Going to be an extreme rain event for South Florida regardless, GFS showing 5-10" of rain. I rarely call my parents to tell them about the weather, but had to give them a heads up this time since things could get dangerous. Some very low-lying areas in SE Florida, most of it was a swamp less than 100 years ago afterall. Probably a good idea to keep a heads up. NAM has been consistently lighter in QPF than GFS, but it's also been trying to bring the wave into the Gulf quicker than reality, so those heavier GFS numbers could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Probably a good idea to keep a heads up. NAM has been consistently lighter in QPF than GFS, but it's also been trying to bring the wave into the Gulf quicker than reality, so those heavier GFS numbers could verify. Another thing to keep in mind is that even though things have been relatively dry today over the peninsula (scattered light showers with a moderate one here and there), things should amplify at night with the diurnal convective maxima, with heavy rains continuing into the morning. That's the same rule of thumb to use with normal tropical waves in SFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Most of the rain still missing Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Most of the rain still missing Florida Looks like the heaviest rain ended up being offshore, but hardly a bust. MIA at 4.60" so far for the event with more on the way. Interestingly, radar estimates have been quite a bit too low. Seems that, typical of tropical airmasses with very high moisture and low CCN, this system has been extremely efficient in terms of precipitation efficiency versus dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Looks like the heaviest rain ended up being offshore, but hardly a bust. MIA at 4.60" so far for the event with more on the way. Interestingly, radar estimates have been quite a bit too low. Seems that, typical of tropical airmasses with very high moisture and low CCN, this system has been extremely efficient in terms of precipitation efficiency versus dbz. To bad it's the one part of FL not in a big drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like the heaviest rain ended up being offshore, but hardly a bust. MIA at 4.60" so far for the event with more on the way. Interestingly, radar estimates have been quite a bit too low. Seems that, typical of tropical airmasses with very high moisture and low CCN, this system has been extremely efficient in terms of precipitation efficiency versus dbz. Threat for wide-spread heavy rainfall has really deminished this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like the heaviest rain ended up being offshore, but hardly a bust. MIA at 4.60" so far for the event with more on the way. Interestingly, radar estimates have been quite a bit too low. Seems that, typical of tropical airmasses with very high moisture and low CCN, this system has been extremely efficient in terms of precipitation efficiency versus dbz. That would be the local NWS fault for not doing tropical ZR mode, wouldn't it? Edit Fault is too harsh a word for a system that isn't even close to purely tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Anyway, naked swirly (probably not closed) well South of Pensacola, this was actually well modelled in that it would look its best over South Florida and fade in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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