cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 The picture of the moon mixed in with the storms is very cool. Thanks man. That's actually Venus. Shines pretty brightly compared to the surrounding stars. I think the rising heights and lack of any significant trigger put the kibosh on anything getting going over Iowa so far tonight. The LLJ is starting to feed those small elevated cells over northeast Iowa now, so those will probably keep on increasing. The convection over eastern Nebraska will probably eventually get organized and start trucking across Iowa late tonight. May have huge impacts on the evolution of tomorrow afternoon's convection. I'm guessing SPC goes with a broad low probability slight at 0600z. Areas that would require future upgrade to higher probabilities would be very hard to define at this point I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 The convection over eastern Nebraska will probably eventually get organized and start trucking across Iowa late tonight. Looks like that's starting to occur SW of Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I've seen this story before. We nearly got shut out today (if it weren't for that weakening line of storms this morning), and tomorrow the warm front will get shunted south and we will get shut out entirely. Looks like all the storms north and west tonight. Oh well, those C Wisconsin folks are probably enjoying the nighttime boomers, and the Chicago folks will get theirs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I remember a few years ago when a powerful storm threw some trees into houses in my neighborhood, damaged several homes. Officially it was straight line wind damage and insurance companies didn't want to help them out. A doppler radar indicated tornado on that cell in WC Wisconsin now. Given it's in the middle of the cell, I would think it would be hard to pick up the rotation. Sorry I missed your post... You are exactly correct with what you were saying and it was right there in that same area. It's being reported as wind damage. Not a tornado- and as you had already pointed out it was not a full blown tornado but it had signs of something there and you was correct, but I bet the people living there feel like it was- some pretty intense winds to uproot large trees, blow a mobile home off it's foundation, and peel off a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 9 tornadoes confirmed so far from May 1... 4 in IL, 2 in IN, 2 in OH and 1 in KY. ILX page has a few tornado pics: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=82629&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 30/30/5 on the new day 1 but they express the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Complex in NE gaining some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 9 tornadoes confirmed so far from May 1... 4 in IL, 2 in IN, 2 in OH and 1 in KY. ILX page has a few tornado pics: http://www.crh.noaa....=82629&source=0 I just heard tonight on the news about the Indiana tornado. I'm in the South Bend area and there was the palm sunday tornados in the 1960s. A report/ photographer for a local newspaper at the time took some great shots of it along US 33 (I think?). The black and white shot made it all that more eerie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 9 tornadoes confirmed so far from May 1... 4 in IL, 2 in IN, 2 in OH and 1 in KY. ILX page has a few tornado pics: http://www.crh.noaa....=82629&source=0 Just found this. This one hasn't been officially confirmed at this point. http://www.thebraziltimes.com/story/1844590.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I just heard tonight on the news about the Indiana tornado. I'm in the South Bend area and there was the palm sunday tornados in the 1960s. A report/ photographer for a local newspaper at the time took some great shots of it along US 33 (I think?). The black and white shot made it all that more eerie. Yep, that is one of my favorite pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Probably one of the most famous tornado pictures of all time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Probably one of the most famous tornado pictures of all time... Thanks andyhb, yep that's the one. Can you imagine seeing that beast barreling toward you? Most people would have a heart attack I'm sure. Others on the other hand would love it... It's hard to believe I was just on that road where that picture was taken ealier today. Of course a lot has changed, now its 4-5 lanes, with big box retail and endless traffic signals that make you late getting to your destination .. well anyways..hah.. Thanks for posting the photo for those who might not have seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 It's hard to believe I was just on that road where that picture was taken ealier today. Of course a lot has changed, now its 4-5 lanes, with big box retail and endless traffic signals that make you late getting to your destination .. well anyways..hah.. In other words, if that happened today, there would be a whole hell of a lot more for those things to hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Nasty looking cell moving this way... Been hearing thunder all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 As suspected, ongoing convection this morning is really gonna make forecasting the late afternoon convection all the more challenging. Then entire state of Iowa is under thick cloud cover. Even goes back into eastern Nebraska and northwest Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Heavy downpour, frequent lightning, more wind... Feel bad for the kids that have to go to school today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 And of course, there's plenty of cirrostratus in the vicinity. Granted it's more of a thick haze variety. So some sunshine is getting through. But of course it can be subject to shallow altostratus and stratocumulus development, which does limit the sunshine. The best severe weather threat should end up south of the train of storms in Northern Lower Michigan and Northern Wisconsin, probably from Northern Illinois to Southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 In other words, if that happened today, there would be a whole hell of a lot more for those things to hit... Exactly andy, but you know they say lightning doesn't strike twice... ... ........................................................................... Regarding the Trempealeau County situation. WEAU-TV has a video of their story on WEAU's website Near Alma, a doppler-indicated tornado placed part of Buffalo County under a tornado warning during a portion of the 9 p.m. hour on Wednesday. It's unclear if a tornado actually touched down at this time. Here is the shorter version from KSTP: Storms Knock Down Trees, Power Lines in Wis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Today looks like a decent chance. Marginal shear but strong instability by late afternoon, if temps in the lower 80s verify. KGRR .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. MAIN AXIS OF NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE U.S.-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALL AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW. THE AXIS OF PCPN IS STARTING TO SHOW A TENDENCY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THIS RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE WHOLE AREA OF RAIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE THIS A.M.. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE FRONT BACK DOWN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE INSTABILITY BUILD TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. LI/S ARE FCST TO DROP DOWN ALMOST TO -10C. THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...AND ANY SHORT WAVE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A LINE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WHEN INITIATION TAKES PLACE. THE WINDOW WOULD LAST UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD WANE...AND WE SEE PCPN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THICK -10 TO -30C LAYER CAPE PROFILES. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS AND 45 KNOTS OR SO AROUND 500 MB. BEST THREAT WOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE TO MORE OF A HYDRO THREAT. WOULD COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE THE FRONT WOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE SOME ROOM BEFORE RAINFALL WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE. WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL END OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING AS THE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED LLJ MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH...AND WE WILL SEE A DRY NE FLOW SET UP. KDTX SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MURKY WITH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES TO SPARK CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID MUCAPE VALUES SOAR TO 2 TO 2.5 J/G IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...THEREFORE CANNOT GO COMPLETELY DRY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES TODAY WILL CARRY THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AND LONG SKINNY CAPE IN PLACE. RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE WARM FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCAPE VALUES WILL STILL BE A DECENT 1-2 J/G OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND A LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Line that moved through here was pretty good... I had to take my son to school and it was like driving through a car wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Sure looks like that stuff that came through here is trying to form into a line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Maybe form into a derecho and make a right turn through MKE and Chicago with about 120 mph winds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Some clouds currently overhead due to outflow from the complex to the north. Hopefully this will mix out during the day. That training junk convection over WI and northern lower just won't quit. Typical warm front rain dump. I have fun imagining in some parallel universe where the laws of physics were altered and the freezing point was around 75 degrees. Now that would be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just past 9:00 AM it's already 75 degrees with a dewpoint of 65. Definitely getting more juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Ugh, more t'storms are forming just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Ugh, more t'storms are forming just to the west. T-storms in WI really won't quit. I wonder if they're going to survive all the way into northern MI again. That area doesn't need any more rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 T-storms in WI really won't quit. I wonder if they're going to survive all the way into northern MI again. That area doesn't need any more rain at the moment. New MCD indicates the potential for storms to develop along the southern flank of the MCS. I can only hope, it's probably the last chance for convection with these disturbances, given the likelihood of tonight's action staying south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Already up to 77 (65 dp) with filtered sunshine. As long as outflow boundaries from the current WI convection don't sag too far south CAPE should soar this afternoon. I don't think the WI convection will make any major right turn as there is decent ridging forecast. South of the border may stay capped until after dark tonight, but there could be an isolated popup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I just heard tonight on the news about the Indiana tornado. I'm in the South Bend area and there was the palm sunday tornados in the 1960s. A report/ photographer for a local newspaper at the time took some great shots of it along US 33 (I think?). The black and white shot made it all that more eerie. It was Dunlop in Elkhart county. There were other pix he shot the whole roll. The photo is from the Elkhart Truth. April 11th 1965 is the date of the outbreak. Anyone else notice the possible ? vortice just to the right and behind the left vortex when facing the storm? Iwonder if it was rotating around the outside of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Nice storms moved through here (near la crosse) this morning even had some small hail. Already cleared out. HRRR hinting at another round of storms late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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