Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I've been thinking about this MCS since I woke up this morning, classic early morning rumbler. Squall line looking healthy and about halfway across southern Minnesota, already moving into Wisconsin at the latitude of Minneapolis. Some 60-70 mph wind gusts being reported in northern IA with the line. LOT was saying this would weaken as it comes into the region. I know these nocturnal complexes usually weaken shortly after sunrise. NAM is showing a decent amount of convection over S WI tomorrow, but it's not even picking up on the MCS that's going on right now! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 A little more info on the tornadoes near Champaign earlier 0415 PM TORNADO 4 SW SAVOY 40.02N 88.31W 05/01/2012 CHAMPAIGN IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE WINDOWS SHATTERED ON SOUTH SIDE OF HOUSE. SHINGLES REMOVED AND SMALL AMOUNT OF ROOF REMOVED. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE...ONE 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE UPROOTED AND THROWN 50 YARDS. FROM SEYMOUR FD. 0518 PM TORNADO TILTON 40.09N 87.64W 05/01/2012 VERMILION IL EMERGENCY MNGR METAL GARAGE PORT THROWN ABOUT 70 YARDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 really impressive LLJ just off the ground in central IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Chad Evans posted this pic on his blog http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/05/01/nws-survey-tomorrow-fountain-montgomery/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Chad Evans posted this pic on his blog http://blogs.wlfi.co...ain-montgomery/ Photo quality isn't very good, but definitely a nice tornado there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Huge bow echo in Iowa and Minnesota, don't see what's going to stop this beast.... LLJ firing up and so is convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Storms starting to fire in NE Iowa. One cell just south of Dubuque heading for the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Storms starting to fire in NE Iowa. One cell just south of Dubuque heading for the river. There's rows of convective cells all across NE IA developing on convergence lines in the MCS inflow. I imagine these cells will rob the main squall of moisture, and lay down outflow boundaries, so some complex things are about to happen. The vortices forming at each end of the bow are also becoming more noticable. It's always fun to watch and see how much an MCV can ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Storms starting to fire in NE Iowa. One cell just south of Dubuque heading for the river. Right on the nose of the 850 mb moisture transport gradient, as seen on the SPC objective analysis. Big time LLJ punching in. Those storms will probably continue to fire there, might be setting up for a really heavy rain threat in eastern IA/NW IL before the MCS arrives given slow storm motions, based on only 15-20 knot upwind propagation vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Saw a pic of the barn in Montogomery county. Pretty much leveled so if that's the max damage I'm guessing solid EF1...usual caveat of course being that it's only a single pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Huge bow echo in Iowa and Minnesota, don't see what's going to stop this beast.... LLJ firing up and so is convection. MUCAPE is really ramping out ahead of it due to the stout LLJ. Up to 500-1000 J/kg in NW IL according to the 05z mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Day 1 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 I like the day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 It would be quite disappointing if nothing comes out of this around here, considering we're in the Slight Risk area for 3 days. That said, Thursday's looking nice. Even tomorrow doesn't look too bad depending on how far north the warm front gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 WTHR has another pic of the Montgomery county tornado http://www.wthr.com/story/18040615/storms-possible-tornadoes-blow-through-indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Hoosier all you gotta do is start some sort of thread for a historical severe weather event or make a prediction or something and we'll get something (worked for 3/2 lol)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Storms are weaking and breaking up a bit as they move through eastern Iowa. I did get a little pea size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 WTHR has another pic of the Montgomery county tornado http://www.wthr.com/...through-indiana The caption of the tornado pic says "funnel cloud" when it clearly shows debris being picked up. lol at broadcast media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I find it interesting that the Day One discussion doesn't even mention Lower MI/Northern IN even though the area is under a slight risk. Our subforum members in Eastern Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Southern/Central Wisconsin are obviously under the gun today, along with those from Ohio on east. Moisture/instability shouldn't be a problem, but shear/capping may hurt MBY. My gut says that the IN/MI border may be the hotspot for any storms today for these 2 states. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 a broken line passing through mid-moring is not helping my confidence for action later this afternoon. Think I'll have to wait until Thurs. night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 RAP is pretty good eye candy for severe weather prospects this afternoon. It weakens that initial line of t'storms and develops a new one which moves through around 20z-21z. That line then settles into Northern IN/OH and trains through those areas before weakening. Also, it develops 3000 J/KG assuming a roughly 80*F/70*F parcel. The EHI values near Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie are pretty impressive too. I doubt any of the above happens though, especially as the RAP shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Thankfully the MCS motored once it got to Wisconsin, the rain is already pretty much over. Hopefully clearing starts in the next few hours. Not sure whether that moderate rain near the Quad Cities will muck things up further south or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 12z NAM sounding for Findlay valid at 8pm edt tonight. More looking like a heavy rain/wind/hail threat for later today into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I'm not getting my hopes up for this one in my neck of the woods. The timing of the best LLJ is at the diurnal minimum again tomorrow. I have a feeling this one's just going to skip my area completely. A dying MCS coming out of northern IL tomorrow morning just enough to push the afternoon threat southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The RAP model is showing storms blowing up in central Iowa by mid afternoon and reaching my area by evening and southern Wisconsin by late evening. It then shows storms backbuilding across Iowa past midnight. It hardly has anything from southern Iowa to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The RAP model is showing storms blowing up in central Iowa by mid afternoon and reaching my area by evening and southern Wisconsin by late evening. It then shows storms backbuilding across Iowa past midnight. It hardly has anything from southern Iowa to Chicago. It's breaking out storms E-W across IA-northern IL later this afternoon after we destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 new day 1 south with slight rish along WI shore into MI...beefs up mod and slight back into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Talking about the possible reduction in on-site surveys, it sounds like this is one of them. Central Indiana - At least one tornado has been confirmed as part of the severe weather that produced flooding rains, hail to golf ball size and areas of wind damage Tuesday afternoon and evening. The tornado touched down southeast of Crawfordsville near New Ross along County Road 500S between CR625E and CR700E. From eyewitness Skywarn storm spotters' reports, pictures and videos of the tornado and damage, and from Indianapolis TV stations' damage pictures, the tornado is being rated preliminarily as an EF1 with winds estimated between 100 mph and 110 mph. The tornado began at approximately 736 pm, was on the ground for about a half mile, and lifted around 737 pm. The damage rating was based on a destroyed barn, and damaged nearby homes, trees and power poles. Other reports of brief tornadoes near Yeddo south of Veedersburg, near Cory southeast of Terre Haute, and near Columbus are still being investigated by county emergency management. As new details become available, they will be updated in this news story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 new day 1 south with slight rish along WI shore into MI...beefs up mod and slight back into the plains. 30 percent wind risk in semi now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 30 percent wind risk in semi now too. Decent speed shear in SE Michigan (according to SPC Mesoanalysis), and it appears that partial clearing is taking place there now, which should allow for sufficient destabilization to get a pretty good squall line to get going in a few hours. The HRRR and RAP have consistently shown a squall line affecting portions of SE Michigan between 19-23z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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