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Early May (1st-7th) Severe Chances


Stebo

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

326 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 323 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF ASHKUM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIPER CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... CLIFTON AROUND 340 PM. ASHKUM AROUND 345 PM.

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new warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

342 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY...

NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 337 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WENONA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STREATOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STRONG ROTATION VISIBLE IN THE CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...

STREATOR AROUND 420 PM.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

352 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ASHKUM...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIPER CITY...MOVING SUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

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There ya go Hoosier. Another chance for you chase a possible spinup. Less than an hour drive.

That tornado warned storm is spitting out baseballs.

Well, maybe you don't want to chase that unless your car already needs some body work.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

356 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ILC075-062130-

/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T2130Z/

IROQUOIS IL-

356 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY

UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ASHKUM...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIPER

CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EDIT: I could chase that on a bicycle.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

402 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

358 PM CDT

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS ROOTED ALONG THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL AS NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. A TIGHT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS IN THIS AREA...WITH NEARLY 4000 J/KG OF UNINHIBITED CAPE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH. REPORTS OF WALL CLOUDS/LOWERING ROTATION HAVE VERIFIED THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WITHIN THIS DEVELOPING COMPLEX. THE TORNADO THREAT IS ENHANCED IN THIS ISOLATED AREA FROM THE PANHANDLE OF LASALLE COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...BY A POOL OF OVER 100 J/KG OF 0-3 KM MLCAPE...AS WELL AS BACKED LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE MORE DISCRETE STORMS...BUT A PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA AND POTENTIALLY A DEVELOPING WIND THREAT AS A COLD POOL ORGANIZES AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THESE STORMS ARE VERY HEAVY AND PROPORGATION IS SLOW...WITH ANALYZED PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING A GRADUAL EAST DRIFT.

MTF

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I'm desperate for some action...and thought about making the relatively short drive up there. But I like my car too much.

Key is to stay out of the cores, but that can be difficult with multiple storms in close proximity.

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And still can't rule out a brief tornado threat

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

446 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 443 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR WATSEKA. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SHELDON AND IROQUOIS.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

502 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ILC075-062230-

/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120506T2230Z/

IROQUOIS IL-

502 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL IROQUOIS

COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF WATSEKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SHELDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE

TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

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Could probably justify extending the watch into west-central Indiana at this point.

Ok I'm done talking to myself lol

lol I was going to mention that awhile ago, but wanted to see how the storms progressed before making that assertion. The way they are congealing, shouldn't that enhance the cold pool, thus propagating the storms into Indiana?

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lol I was going to mention that awhile ago, but wanted to see how the storms progressed before making that assertion. The way they are congealing, shouldn't that enhance the cold pool, thus propagating the storms into Indiana?

ha ha, SPC just answered my question with the issuance of a meso discussion for West Central IN:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0507 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL IL...W-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258...

VALID 062207Z - 062300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER OVER NERN/E-CNTRL IL MAY

PROPAGATE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IND...SE OF WW 258. THIS

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER APPROACHING THE I-74 CORRIDOR IN E-CNTRL

IL IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT

ANALYZED FROM NEAR LAF TO LUK. CORES HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED ALONG A

REMNANT OUTFLOW/WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN IL.

ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB

SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG...BUT MODEST DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR...STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO

MAINTAIN THE CLUSTER EVOLVING INTO W-CNTRL IND. BUT WITH CONVECTIVE

OUTFLOW ALREADY SURGING 10-15 NM AHEAD OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE

CLUSTER...PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH LEADING CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 05/06/2012

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Whoa!

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG CRESCENT CITY 40.77N 87.86W

05/06/2012 IROQUOIS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

2 REPORTS RCVD - EAST OF CRESCENT CITY TO WATSEKA ALONG

US 24. EST 60 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN OVER RR TRACKS IN A

3/4 TO 1 1/2 MILE SECTION. OTHER POLES WERE DAMAGED. TIME

APPROX FROM 2140 UTC TO 2200 UTC

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Your turn Hoosier. I'm going outside for a smoke and enjoy the nice weather while we have it.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

525 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY...

SOUTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 520 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUCKLEY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF PAXTON...AND

MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...

CISSNA PARK AROUND 535 PM.

CLAYTONVILLE AROUND 540 PM.

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New watch just issued. LAF included. NOW I'm going outside for awhile.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 260

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

630 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC011-015-023-045-107-121-157-165-171-070200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0260.120506T2230Z-120507T0200Z/

IN

. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE CARROLL CLINTON

FOUNTAIN MONTGOMERY PARKE

TIPPECANOE VERMILLION WARREN

ATTN...WFO...IND...

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Wow, that's a lot of rain in 30 min!

0435 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W WATSEKA 40.78N 87.83W

05/06/2012 E1.37 INCH IROQUOIS IL COCORAHS

1.37 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. SOME WIND DAMAGE TO FARM

BUILDING DUE TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

New storms firing in WI and NW IL.

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