wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Some good rain heading for MKE.... If it takes an easterly jog, right now the MCS as a whole is moving east, but the individual storms are moving more northeast. With temps in the low 50s, it is quite stable, so hopefully it doesn't break apart too much before arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Severe watch was recently issued for southeast Iowa, but the line of storms is petering out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Interesting storms building from Rockford down to Pontiac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 If it takes an easterly jog, right now the MCS as a whole is moving east, but the individual storms are moving more northeast. With temps in the low 50s, it is quite stable, so hopefully it doesn't break apart too much before arriving. Thankfully for my brisket and ribs on the smoker it looks like another miss this round... whopping .22" of rain so far only this month. MKE=where most weather comes to die especially in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Thankfully for my brisket and ribs on the smoker it looks like another miss this round... whopping .22" of rain so far only this month. MKE=where most weather comes to die especially in spring. Love smoking my own stuff too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Thankfully for my brisket and ribs on the smoker it looks like another miss this round... whopping .22" of rain so far only this month. MKE=where most weather comes to die especially in spring. More like YBY=where weather comes to die. I had two great storms come through on Thursday that just missed you to the north, so Mitchell's rain amounts are misleading when it comes to the county as a whole this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 With a southwesterly LLJ, the convection in northwest Missouri (possibly initiated by the morning gravity waves) is robbing forcing for the eastern Iowa MCS big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Interesting storms building from Rockford down to Pontiac? Just got smoked by this line. Caught me very off guard with my lawn half mowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Thankfully for my brisket and ribs on the smoker it looks like another miss this round... whopping .22" of rain so far only this month. MKE=where most weather comes to die especially in spring. Looks like the storms will hit Milwaukee! Probably not severe, but you'll add to you rain tally! Starting to thunder here...and getting quite dark. Severe t-storm warning up for Kendall Co., IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1009 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 1007 AM CDT AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WI CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE AREA OF STORMS IN CENTRAL IA PROPAGATES EAST. BOTH OF THESE HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF MCV CENTER...ALTHOUGH ANY CENTER HAS BEEN TOUGH TO DECIPHER FOR VERY LONG...MEANING ITS CHALLENGING ON HOW LONG THESE WILL SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. IN BETWEEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IL...ELEVATED CELLS...SOME POSSESSING MINI-SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A MODIFIED DVN SOUNDING HAD AN IMPRESSIVE 4500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO THAT...WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CORES. THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER DVN SOUNDING AND MESOANALYSIS HAS LIKELY TEMPERED THESE FROM REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA IN OUR AREA AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST STORMS THROUGH NOON OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LATER...BUT SOME MARGINAL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN ACCAS AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IA. GIVEN THE DEEP AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE STORMS IN CENTRAL IA WILL AT LEAST IN SOME REGARD CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THAT AREA DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. SCATTERED CELLS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE WITHIN THE ACCAS FIELD ARE LIKELY...AND THESE MAY POSSIBLY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE COMPLEX ITSELF. THIS AREA IS ALSO ALONG THE SYNOPTIC QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES UP TO BASICALLY THE QUAD CITIES...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWN LOW AS WELL PER MESOANALYSIS...WITH MLCIN ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME ROOTED LOWER AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...IF CELLS CAN BECOME ROOTED LOWER THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THE BOUNDARY CAN STAY DEFINED WITHIN THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE TREND WITH STORM MOTIONS EARLY ON HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING...AND JUST THE RADAR ACROSS THE WI AREA REFLECTS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 50 PLUS DBZ. WITH 1.60 PWAT THIS MORNING ON THE ILX SOUNDING...BASICALLY NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MAY...SEE NO REASON THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE A REALIZED THREAT. HAVE BEGAN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE SHORT TERM/EXPLICIT MODELS...MOST NOT HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION VERY WELL AT ALL. IN GENERAL...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN SOLUTIONS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL MODE OF STORM CLUSTERS WITH SLOW PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE FAVORED...THOUGH COVERAGE VARIES WILDLY. WILL MAKE SOME FURTHER TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HAVE AN UPDATED FORECAST ISSUED SHORTLY. MTF http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 looks like a fun day on deck...love these multi round days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 It is foggy, very gloomy, and cool here. Can't expect to get much unless this stuff can clear out at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Seems like the radar is filling in with more values above 40dbz. Getting quite noisy here. Storms less than 15 miles away now. Dark enough for the street light to come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 very nice storm here this morning, pictures/video later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 2.1 inches of rain so far here this month...seems like we've had more... heavier amounts just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looks like the storms will hit Milwaukee! Probably not severe, but you'll add to you rain tally! Starting to thunder here...and getting quite dark. Severe t-storm warning up for Kendall Co., IL. As the case most of the the time I was spared. Just 10 mins of drizzle/very light rain/few one hundredths of an inch.. Few nice rumbles though. Looks like a little action just off to your west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 As the case most of the the time I was spared. Just 10 mins of drizzle/very light rain/few one hundredths of an inch.. Few nice rumbles though. Looks like a little action just off to your west Funny what a difference a few miles makes. I've been getting a nice soaking here along with some nice rumbles.. You should definitely be getting something decent with the next little line though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Funny what a difference a few miles makes. I've been getting a nice soaking here along with some nice rumbles.. Yup - been just missed n/s with all of the rain this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looks like the mothership has arrived here! Nice roll cloud moving overhead. Will post pictures when the storm is done. Winds picking up... Getting gusts up to 40mph I'm estimating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms moving through here with some cg's and heavy rain. Looks like this will be the main show for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Just got home from yesterday's bust in Nebraska just in time for an outflow boundary to blow through and wipe away the instability lol. Ahhh great weekend. Did get a pretty nice look at the severe warned mini-bow echo out on the west side of Des Moines early this morning. May post some pics/vid clip later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms moving through here with some cg's and heavy rain. Looks like this will be the main show for the day. what is CG's? I can only assume it means cloud to ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 what is CG's? I can only assume it means cloud to ground. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yup - been just missed n/s with all of the rain this month. Looks like another wave developing in Walworth and Waukesha County. You may get a little more action yet! C-G's here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 12z WRF Sounding for Findlay valid at 2pm tomorrow. Not overly impressive parameters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Rain really coming down here. Storms are back building to the southwest, which should lead to some decent totals in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looks like another wave developing in Walworth and Waukesha County. You may get a little more action yet! C-G's here too. That wave is severe warned now for Milwaukee!!! THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... EAST CENTRAL WALWORTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... EASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... * AT 1216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAUKESHA AIRPORT TO BIG BEND TO BOHNERS LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 That wave is severe warned now for Milwaukee!!! Yeah you can see clearly that there is some high winds moving into the west side right now. Wunderground radar shows it nicely. Still quite a few C-G's here. Moderate rain, 53°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yeah you can see clearly that there is some high winds moving into the west side right now. Wunderground radar shows it nicely. Still quite a few C-G's here. Moderate rain, 53°. Can see a pretty sweet shelf cloud here.. Some pretty wicked lightning as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 atmosphere recovery behind this complex is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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