Hoosier Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Pretty large 15% hatched on the new day 2 outlook...mentions possible raising of probs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 SPC site not updating for me for some reason ..IL/INDIANA TO ERN OK SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WHILE CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION EXISTS OVER WARM FRONT. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE MAIN SVR THREATS. LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTS PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR MODE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED COMMONLY BY MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS...WITH POCKETS OF 70S F...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH MID-LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG IN MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA. MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUSTAINED/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE NEAR WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH...SVR POTENTIAL DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AND DIFFERENCES IN AREAS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT...SVR OUTLOOK IS KEPT RATHER BROAD-BRUSHED ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF STG-EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR...30% SVR CONCENTRATION EASILY MAY BECOME APPARENT WITHIN THIS AREA IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. AS IT STANDS...THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IN EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALONG WITH SVR HAIL AND GUSTS AS COVERAGE INCREASES ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AND COLD POOLS ACCUMULATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Looks like Monday could also get a little interesting in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Looks like Monday could also get a little interesting in the Ohio Valley. A couple of the models especially the foreign models are a bit slower and further North with the surface Low for Sunday/Monday. The Euro has been consistent on being slower with with low. This could have huge ramifications on Northern parts of the the outlooks for Sunday and whatever is put out for Monday. The fastest model with the surface low track right now is the NAM, and we all know how the NAM has done at this range. Edit: more than half of the 21z SREF runs agree with a slower and further North surface low track too. Some are even tracking it North of 94 in MI. The mean takes it through Toledo however it is being skewed by ETAs which have the low going along the Ohio River (unlikely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 My brother got this sweet video from his house north of the storms. Nice Video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Nice. That bolt at 1:19 was SICK. Awsome! Hope to capture something like this myself one day. I've been trying, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Looks like Monday could also get a little interesting in the Ohio Valley. I'm in Chicago the next 3 days. Bank on several reports within 30 miles of Anderson. Sent from my ADR6400L 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I'm in Chicago the next 3 days. Bank on several reports within 30 miles of Anderson. Sent from my ADR6400L 2 haha Other than the lame speed shear (which should be overcome to some extent by large instability) my other main concern is timing. Sorta rooting for the slower solutions so we don't get caught in between with a better threat west on Sunday and east on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS... ..MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD FAVOR CERTAIN AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...NEW CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THOSE BOUNDARIES WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN UNDISTURBED. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN CNTRL IA...NRN IL AND NRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST WHERE SUPERCELLS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE DOMINANT STORM MODE IS QUESTIONABLE. AS WINDS VEER AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...LINEAR MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST FROM SRN WI SWWD ACROSS NW IL INTO ERN IA...NRN MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND CO-LOCATED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Today is a copy of yesterday, minus a little wind and somewhat cooler temps. Can't imagine severe making it up here until we can get a little more juice to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 That is quite the blob of showers/storms heading right down I 90... ugh... more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I'm recommending this video solely for the commentary. Good lord. http://youtu.be/3c_g5ZYsfP4 After watching that I think my ears are bleeding. Oh man, they removed it. I wish that I would have saved that. It was a classic on how to react when spotting a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 That is quite the blob of showers/storms heading right down I 90... ugh... more rain. About 70 miles out from your location. Line holding together pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Still looks weak this far north...the south of it looks good but that is breaking more SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 LOT regarding tomorrow.. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AVAILABLE WITH 30-35 KT OF SHEAR...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPE VALUES COULD SHOOT UP BEYOND 3000. WITH A LOW TRACK THAT IS FAVORED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED TO BACK TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THE NICE VEERING PROFILE TO THE HODOGRAPH YIELDS HELICITY VALUES IN THE 2 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE...AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH THE COLD FRONT CANNOT BE LOOKED OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Thunderstorms moving into western WI are strong, but not quite severe. Severe part of the line to the south could make it into SW WI in a bit. SWS: WIZ023>028-052130- CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX- 331 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHIPPEWA...DUNN...EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...PIERCE AND ST. CROIX COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT... AT 327 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMERALD TO EAU GALLE TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELLA TO 7 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... EAU CLAIRE. KNAPP. MENOMONIE. TAINTER LAKE. ROCK FALLS. ELK MOUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Looks like the stronger part will go just north and then south of La Crosse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 re: tornado potential tomorrow, there is definitely some nice veering with height but deep layer shear magnitude seems a bit borderline to me. I guess it's one of those days you wouldn't want to totally sleep on given all the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Rain through that storm earlier on the way to Rochester,MN....nothing much, but a few very nice cloud to ground lightning...big fat bolts. Foggy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Rain through that storm earlier on the way to Rochester,MN....nothing much, but a few very nice cloud to ground lightning...big fat bolts. Foggy now. La Crosse's update indicates that they still expect the MCS in the Plains to be severe if it makes it through the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 More rain for western WI and into the central section according to this run of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 this would be very nice tomorrow evening, dependent on what tonight's convection does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I'm really confused by the new day 2. A good portion of the Ohio Valley is in a SLIGHT RISK, but no mention of the region in the text... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I'm really confused by the new day 2. A good portion of the Ohio Valley is in a SLIGHT RISK, but no mention of the region in the text... It's there but it's broad brushed... "mid south to Lake Erie" ..ARKLATEX REGION...MOD-SOUTH TO LE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND NEAR/E OF SFC LOW. POCKET OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY FROM SFC LOW SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT...BENEATH SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS MAY EXIST OVER PARTS OF OH AND PERHAPS WRN PA...DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE EWD PROGRESS OF WARM FRONT. WITH FAVORABLY RICH MOISTURE OVER BROAD AREA OF WARM SECTOR...BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM OH TO MID-SOUTH REGION...IN KEEPING WITH INCREASES IN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LEADING TO DOMINANT MULTICELL MODE IN LINES AND CLUSTERS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DECLINE MARKEDLY OVER MOST OF AREA AFTER DARK...THOUGH A FEW COLD-POOL DRIVEN CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST AFTER 06Z WITHIN THIS BROAD SWATH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 This system went from decent potential to pretty close to bag of crap in 2 days. Tomorrow's risk sounds so conditional per the outlook and with the absolute lack of shear I don't blame them. Going to be a multicell mess tomorrow. The only area that might have a chance at something decent might be the warm front in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Rain again... This won't end! Some claps of thunder out there, but all these storms are pretty weak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Nice storms moving into the Des Moines area. We are a bit cool and under thick clouds. I think locations along and south of I-80, where it is sunny and will destabilize over the next few hours, have the best shot at seeing strong/severe storms from this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Nice storms moving into the Des Moines area. We are a bit cool and under thick clouds. I think locations along and south of I-80, where it is sunny and will destabilize over the next few hours, have the best shot at seeing strong/severe storms from this line. Definitely a weak warm front running from Fort Madison to Macomb to Lincoln (see dewpoints in the lower 70s). An hour or two of heating there should build a decent reservoir of CAPE ahead of this line. I'd like to see a little more storm relative flow in the low levels to keep the cold pool from out pacing the storms for a more widespread severe threat, but I don't see any reason why intermittent severe isn't possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The MCS in Wisconsin is starting to collapse southeastward. Even if it ruins the marginal severe chances, I wouldn't mind some more rain and convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Some good rain heading for MKE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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