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Early May (1st-7th) Severe Chances


Stebo

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The southern flank appears to have more convection firing and trying to catch up with the leading outflow. Possibly a sign that the LLJ is kicking in.

Potential fly in the ointment is the convection back in Nebraska, that might rob the instability and cut off inflow into the northern MCS. The latest HRRR shows this to some extent.

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looks like some small mammatus clouds? always some nice winds when you see them incoming...

Yeah definitely! Not sure which way that 2nd camera is pointing. But could be interesting to watch. Leading edge 40 miles west of Decorah, IA.

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it's about to die...almost no MLCAPE and LLJ oriented poorly.

I think the LLJ will be organizing itself back to the west of this MCS. I agree, unless convection really starts to blow on the south side, it will be on a downward trend.

Plenty of MUCAPE to tap farther south and west though.

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I think the LLJ will be organizing itself back to the west of this MCS. I agree, unless convection really starts to blow on the south side, it will be on a downward trend.

Plenty of MUCAPE to tap farther south and west though.

yep, options still on the table south and west...i'm just saying anyone who thinks this will plow on into WI/IL without significant weakening will be bummed.

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Most of the DVN cwa put out a Flood Watch.

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

754 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...HEAVY RAIN A THREAT AGAIN TONIGHT...

.A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST WEEK HAS LEFT SOILS

ACROSS THE AREA QUITE MOIST. THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT HAS

ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THE GROUND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE

80. A NEAR TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY

RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL RAPIDLY RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS AND LOW

LYING AREAS.

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Awesome photos Joe! Like the 2nd one the best!

Area around La Crosse experiencing high winds from the decaying derecho. Don't get blown away DLL!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

854 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

.SUSTAINED WINDS TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED

ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS

EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS FIRST FORM AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL

LIKELY LAST FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALBERT LEA AND OWATONNA HAVE

ALREADY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 56 MPH.

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