OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Gonna head down towards Burlington/Galesburg and see how things shake out. Just got off so haven't had time to look at anything. Looks like that east/west outflow boundary is sort of parked in that area. Was just getting around to posting that I really liked the Highway 34 corridor of Illinois. This is the same boundary that started percolating earlier in southeast Iowa, as low level theta-e advection got going. The succinct MCD is because this air mass is rapidly recovering in the wake of the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Right now it appears the biggest question mark is deep layer shear (effective values just below 35 kt). But subtle upper support will be arriving from Iowa in the next couple of hours that may be just enough to keep storms organized. That being said, MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with large amounts located between 0 and 3 km, plus vorticity along a low level boundary means even a strong updraft could potentially stretch this into the vertical, landspout style. Low level (0-1 km) shear along the boundary is actually pretty impressive, so by no means an EF0 write off kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Right now it appears the biggest question mark is deep layer shear (effective values just below 35 kt). But subtle upper support will be arriving from Iowa in the next couple of hours that may be just enough to keep storms organized. That being said, MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with large amounts located between 0 and 3 km, plus vorticity along a low level boundary means even a strong updraft could potentially stretch this into the vertical, landspout style. Low level (0-1 km) shear along the boundary is actually pretty impressive, so by no means an EF0 write off kind of event. Weak updraft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just in the backyard here in Kenosha enjoying the heat/humidity--and then the NE winds kicked and we had instant AC. It has dropped about ten degrees here 27 blocks off the lakefront....amazing how that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Weak updraft? I guess I shouldn't have thrown that "even" in there. I mean strong updraft, as a weaker one will probably struggle to stretch the vorticity into something of note. Considering the instability in place though, these updrafts should be on the strong side and going up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I guess I shouldn't have thrown that "even" in there. I mean strong updraft, as a weaker one will probably struggle to stretch the vorticity into something of note. Considering the instability in place though, these updrafts should be on the strong side and going up quickly. Ok, yeah I was a little confused there...cells beginning to fire around Peoria. Cap is essentially gone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Right now it appears the biggest question mark is deep layer shear (effective values just below 35 kt). But subtle upper support will be arriving from Iowa in the next couple of hours that may be just enough to keep storms organized. That being said, MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with large amounts located between 0 and 3 km, plus vorticity along a low level boundary means even a strong updraft could potentially stretch this into the vertical, landspout style. Low level (0-1 km) shear along the boundary is actually pretty impressive, so by no means an EF0 write off kind of event. 0-3 km CAPE and surface vorticity are maximized where that cell went up in Putnam County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 little tower to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just in the backyard here in Kenosha enjoying the heat/humidity--and then the NE winds kicked and we had instant AC. It has dropped about ten degrees here 27 blocks off the lakefront....amazing how that happened. Nice! Are you on the southside of northside 27 blocks in? I hope the cooler air gets here. For anyone watching... a cell just popped over Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 0-3 km CAPE and surface vorticity are maximized where that cell went up in Putnam County. Always have to mindful of the tornado when you see that kind of collocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Nice boundary noted on the radar in Muscatine and Cedar County working NNE wonder if we see something fire on that in the next hour or so.... Very muggy out there and Summery today. Hopefully the darn cap can go and we can get some organized convection here this evening and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 A watch has been issued for the Detroit area, but no status messages on web site. 504 WOUS64 KWNS 032252 WOU1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 652 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC005-015-021-025-027-037-045-049-057-065-067-075-077-081-087- 093-099-117-121-125-139-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163- 040100- /O.CON.KWNS.SV.A.0231.000000T0000Z-120504T0100Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GENESEE GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONTCALM MUSKEGON OAKLAND OTTAWA SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Nice boundary noted on the radar in Muscatine and Cedar County working NNE wonder if we see something fire on that in the next hour or so.... Very muggy out there and Summery today. Hopefully the darn cap can go and we can get some organized convection here this evening and tonight. I'm thinking that's the leading edge of deeper moisture. Kind of a nice theta-e gradient near there, and dewpoints in the upper 50s to the north. I also think the AC or ACCAS streaming northeast from northern Missouri will be telling. That's probably the upper support that these storms will need to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Visible outflow from the linear line in SeMi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Regarding the AC, you can already see it acting on the Cu field in Iowa. As the high clouds stream overhead, the Cu field pretty rapidly expands in coverage and texture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I'm thinking that's the leading edge of deeper moisture. Kind of a nice theta-e gradient near there, and dewpoints in the upper 50s to the north. I also think the AC or ACCAS streaming northeast from northern Missouri will be telling. That's probably the upper support that these storms will need to organize. I think you are dead on. Looking at the VIS imagery it certainly looks like a good chunk of Iowa should really be getting primed to go, except for maybe the Northeast part of the state. I see a lot of agitated sky cover on the imagery so once this upper support shoots across will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 little tower to my west first warning of the year...i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Big towers to my South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Still some SBCIN hanging tough in western Illinois, and the storms there definitely look like they are fighting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 O'Hare TDWR (1-min intervals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 O'Hare TDWR (1-min intervals) i'm right in that things path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 first warning of the year...i think I have a front row view of that cell! Got a couple pictures to post in a bit. Large anvil on that baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Decided not to head south, but instead stick around here and take some pics/vid of the distant towers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 i'm right in that things path Lucky... Max Expected Hail Size is around 2" (Pink is hail) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Havent checked the radar, but the "out my window" glance and that chicago storm appears to be blowing up pretty good. Edit: just saw the above post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Lots of hail reports coming in. Alek you got hail? 0628 PM HAIL NILES 42.03N 87.81W 05/03/2012 E0.50 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER DIME SIZED HAIL - MILWAUKEE AVE AND TOUHY AVE 0640 PM HAIL MORTON GROVE 42.04N 87.79W 05/03/2012 E1.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER HAIL FROM PENNY TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED - GROSS POINT AND OAKTON - NEAR NILES WEST H.S. 0640 PM HAIL CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W 05/03/2012 E0.50 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO MILWAUKEE AVE AND BRYN MAWR 0640 PM HAIL EVANSTON 42.05N 87.69W 05/03/2012 M0.88 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Havent checked the radar, but the "out my window" glance and that chicago storm appears to be blowing up pretty good. it's quality...hail core maybe a few blocks north of me. Looks like a mini train setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 More cells headed into the Chicago Metro. Should be an interesting night for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Decided not to head south, but instead stick around here and take some pics/vid of the distant towers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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