A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 looks like subsistence is waning and CU field over north central illinois will try to get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Had a great view of this funnel cloud forming just west of campus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Had a great view of this funnel cloud forming just west of campus! nice shoot TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 LOT 310 PM CDT BETTER FORCING WITH MCV WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA INTO INDIANA AND MICHIGAN WITH NO OVERLY APPARENTLY TRIGGER OR FORCING MECHANISM OVERLY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...THOUGH NOT QUITE ZERO. IF NOTHING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NEXT HOUR MAY COORDINATE WITH SPC ABOUT CANCELING ALL OR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WW230 EARLY. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ASCENT OVER TOP THE LINGERING COLD POOL RESULTING IN SOME UPTICK IN CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA. WOULD SEEM THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...BUT EVEN THERE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Back to full sun. Up to 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 probably some of the highest mid level lapse rates I've seen around here and to the southwest. There's actually some decent (35-40 kt) deep layer shear out there now too, so coupled with those lapse rates and instability, if anything goes, it'll put down big hail. But as the meso afd above points out, anything going is a big if at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 LOT 310 PM CDT BETTER FORCING WITH MCV WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA INTO INDIANA AND MICHIGAN WITH NO OVERLY APPARENTLY TRIGGER OR FORCING MECHANISM OVERLY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...THOUGH NOT QUITE ZERO. IF NOTHING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NEXT HOUR MAY COORDINATE WITH SPC ABOUT CANCELING ALL OR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WW230 EARLY. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ASCENT OVER TOP THE LINGERING COLD POOL RESULTING IN SOME UPTICK IN CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA. WOULD SEEM THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...BUT EVEN THERE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. looks like we have another clunker on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Being in property insurance, I certainly dont mind a bust... But being a storm fanatic, my optimism for MYB is waning fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Some TCU out near MQB in W. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Storms firing over S MN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Coming down in sheets atm, along with some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Hopefully Tropical's greenhouse doesn't end up in Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Mike Caplan pretty much feeling the same way you guys are about the Chicago land area Closing in on the 3:00 hour and radar shows nada south of the Cheddar Curtain. A nice line of storms stretches from Milwaukee to Madison but it's moving just north of due east. Furthermore, visible spectrum sat imagery depicts virtually no bubbly cumulus in northern IL/IN. Atmo remains fairly capped, meaning parcels of air are having a hard time rising due to warm air aloft. http://www.facebook.com/michael.c.caplan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I really was looking at some of the maps yesterday at this time. Based on the mesoanalysis, and the 4km NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallhires.html I was guessing there may be a squall line at I-94 and also possibly at the Lake Erie shore. It seemed plausible, but no storms went up in either area. It seems as though Detroit had another wasted opportunity. Now as for today, I am kind of curious to see what might become of that line of storms near Lansing. The new storms are in a region that has just under 30 knots of 0-6km shear. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I've only seen a handful of storms this intense before. It's been like a tropical storm the last 10 minutes, with rain, wind and hail. Maybe it's the location I'm in, but it's been awhile since a storm this intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Tor watch for IL coming... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0680.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 032053Z - 032130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 05/03/2012 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 ..... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 032053Z - 032130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 05/03/2012 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... Wow, that was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 lol...that's gotta be one of the shortest MCD's ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Look at the south side of Saginaw Bay if you want to see cells exploding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Sfc flow not as backed as earlier but it's still due southerly more or less in parts of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Sfc flow not as backed as earlier but it's still due southerly more or less in parts of IL. Yup, still modestly good turning from sfc up to 850 mb, plus 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE uncapped according to the mesoanalysis. Along with 40-45 kts of deep layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Tornado watch just issued. TCU going up in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Upper level winds are sorta garbagey. Best low level flow not really matched up with the stronger mid/high level flow in the upcoming tornado watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Severe meso-scale event appears likely this evening and overnight for southwestern ON and southeast MI. Not quite as severe as May 12, 2000 but looks similar in some ways. Expect the front to develop into a powerful MCS as it crosses Lake Huron with tornadic wind gusts possible, large hail, and widespread heavy rainfalls 50-100 mms (2-4 inches). This could affect large parts of southern MI but for the Ontario readers here, would say Goderich to Stratford to KW to Hamilton will be the axis of most severe weather as this develops, although all regions of south-central and southwest Ontario could be affected. Both straight-line and tornadic winds possible to F2 intensity. Would suggest an unofficial "tornado watch" for Huron, Perth, south Bruce-Grey, Waterloo, Oxford, Middlesex and Lambton counties (as per the discussion we had during winter about ON svr wx). Valid 7 p.m. to 0200h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Severe meso-scale event appears likely this evening and overnight for southwestern ON and southeast MI. Not quite as severe as May 12, 2000 but looks similar in some ways. Expect the front to develop into a powerful MCS as it crosses Lake Huron with tornadic wind gusts possible, large hail, and widespread heavy rainfalls 50-100 mms (2-4 inches). This could affect large parts of southern MI but for the Ontario readers here, would say Goderich to Stratford to KW to Hamilton will be the axis of most severe weather as this develops, although all regions of south-central and southwest Ontario could be affected. Both straight-line and tornadic winds possible to F2 intensity. Would suggest an unofficial "tornado watch" for Huron, Perth, south Bruce-Grey, Waterloo, Oxford, Middlesex and Lambton counties (as per the discussion we had during winter about ON svr wx). Valid 7 p.m. to 0200h. Thanks for that info Roger, I post my own convective outlooks on my website for Southern Ontario. Take a look http://www.southernontariochasing.ca/day1convectiveoutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Severe meso-scale event appears likely this evening and overnight for southwestern ON and southeast MI. Not quite as severe as May 12, 2000 but looks similar in some ways. Expect the front to develop into a powerful MCS as it crosses Lake Huron with tornadic wind gusts possible, large hail, and widespread heavy rainfalls 50-100 mms (2-4 inches). This could affect large parts of southern MI but for the Ontario readers here, would say Goderich to Stratford to KW to Hamilton will be the axis of most severe weather as this develops, although all regions of south-central and southwest Ontario could be affected. Both straight-line and tornadic winds possible to F2 intensity. Would suggest an unofficial "tornado watch" for Huron, Perth, south Bruce-Grey, Waterloo, Oxford, Middlesex and Lambton counties (as per the discussion we had during winter about ON svr wx). Valid 7 p.m. to 0200h. Instability looks to wane considerably around 10 PM. Sure hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Gonna head down towards Burlington/Galesburg and see how things shake out. Just got off so haven't had time to look at anything. Looks like that east/west outflow boundary is sort of parked in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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