frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Rather big plume of 3000-3500 SB CAPE nosing in from Illinois. Cumulus field over central lower doesn't appear to be capped anymore as there are small showers appearing. That area just needs some better forcing to arrive from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 micro cell going up near Geos, CU continues to percolate...watch issued for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 old but useful CLOSELY MONITORING BAND OF DEVELOPING TOWERING CUMULUS CONGESTUSEXTENDING FROM THE NW CHICAGO SUBURBS SSW TO JUST EAST OF PEORIA. MODIFYING THE 12Z KILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING...HOWEVER RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD SHOW ABOUT 30MB DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER CENTERED NEAR 800MB SERVING AS A CAP. BAND OF MORE ROBUST TOWERING CUMULUS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF MESOVORTICIES ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS MESO AFD. LACK OF UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ACCESS HOW EFFECTIVE THE ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN AT LIFTING THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER...BUT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT ANY TIME NOW. ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS PASSES THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Clearing out pretty good to my west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 micro cell going up near Geos, CU continues to percolate...watch issued for some reason. Just had some random large drops of rain fall. Nothing much else. Severe thunderstorm watch up though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just had some random large drops of rain fall. Nothing much else. Severe thunderstorm watch up though! the cell shiit the bed quick, still a stable layer down here...not so sure the watch was neccesary...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Rather big plume of 3000-3500 SB CAPE nosing in from Illinois. Cumulus field over central lower doesn't appear to be capped anymore as there are small showers appearing. That area just needs some better forcing to arrive from the west. My thoughts exactly. It has reached 80s across most of Michigan, and it's actually 88 degrees here now. Things should fire rather quickly in MI. I'm beginning to believe that NW Ohio, and the Detroit area are getting shortchanged in the forecasting. The sea breeze has cleared out the cloud cover. We should be in the 30% risk areas. Also a WW has been put up for central MI as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SPURIOUS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER 16Z AND 17Z AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF ORD STILL SHOW A FAIRLY STOUT CAP IN PLACE AND TCU FIELD TO THE WEST WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SPURIOUS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER 16Z AND 17Z AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF ORD STILL SHOW A FAIRLY STOUT CAP IN PLACE AND TCU FIELD TO THE WEST WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SPC watch gonna cap bust... 82 and mostly cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 SPC watch gonna cap bust... 82 and mostly cloudy here. yeah i think they jumped the gun on that one down this way after they saw the Madison cell blow up. We have our last good chance tonight...naso sure what to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Hit 90 here in the southern Burbs of Buffalo. Has been sunny all day, definitely unstabilizing the atmosphere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Cell in Jefferson County, WI definitely a hail producer! 0115 PM HAIL WATERTOWN 43.19N 88.72W 05/03/2012 M1.25 INCH JEFFERSON WI TRAINED SPOTTER HAIL FELL FOR A TEN MINUTE PERIOD Looks like more cells building back to the southwest. And the hail is getting larger... 0200 PM HAIL 6 NE OCONOMOWOC 43.17N 88.41W 05/03/2012 M1.50 INCH WAUKESHA WI 911 CALL CENTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Radar shows cells trying to pop in SEMI but it looks like the cap is winning. T-storm watch for areas generally north and west of I-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Those two little marine warned cells out over central Lake Michigan look vaguely super-cellular. Hard to tell though so far away from the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Unfortunately storms are taking their time making their way south into the best instability. Dang unidirectional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I see a outflow boundary heading south out of the Wisc. complex heading for the I-43 corridor. Might that boundary set off some new development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 tons of lightning with the complex over N. MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 LIs are getting pretty extreme over western Illinois into N. Missourri...anything that fires there could have some quality stones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Hail getting more serious northside of Milwaukee. Heads up Tropical! 0223 PM HAIL GERMANTOWN 43.23N 88.10W 05/03/2012 M1.75 INCH WASHINGTON WI TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 COUPLE OF ACARS SOUNDINGS AROUND 1820Z AT ORD HAVE SHOWN A VERYSUBSTANTIAL COOLING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN 800-700MB...UP TO NEARLY 3C IN THE PAST 60 MINUTES. THIS COOLING IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT NOT YET SEEING ANY CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OR VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH WHAT LITTLE CUMULUS THERE IS BEING MUCH FLATTER AND LESS VERTICALLY DEVELOPED THAN OVER NE IL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT WESTERN PORTIONS OF WW230 COULD BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY UNLESS SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I have found an outside location where I can access my computer and watch the stormy show approach. Getting light blue to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 severe thunderstorm watch now in lower MI until 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Theta-e advection and moisture convergence is increasing along the southern periphery of the remnant MCS air mass in southeast Iowa. HRRR still highlighting convection eventually in this area, despite cap concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 We're getting the very southern end of a couple non-severe cells at the moment. Made for some good shots, didn't have a camera though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Flow is backed southeast in a pocket around western IL so anything that could overcome the cap would need to be watched for perhaps some tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 cap doesn't look like it's going anywhere anytime soon IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Never agreed with SPC when that watch came out for northeast IL but still like for stuff to fire in MO/IA/western IL and favor along/south of I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Never agreed with SPC when that watch came out for northeast IL but still like for stuff to fire in MO/IA/western IL and favor along/south of I-88. watching the outflow boundary moving north from that old MCS but it's not looking too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 probably some of the highest mid level lapse rates I've seen around here and to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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