daddylonglegs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Yeah...some some here and there now... Going to be a greasy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 For not having much environmental SRH, this is interesting. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00_zeus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Pretty complicated and uncertain forecast for today. Right now I'm liking I-69 and north to get clipped. Unfortunately it may be another day where a lack of any good forcing in SEMI causes some real good parameters to go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Well, it has destabilized nicely, but cloud cover is increasing. It was 79F when I left for classes at 10:30, with dews in the mid 60s. Unfortunately, with two classes this afternoon, I will probably miss any action that does occur, based on the latest MCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 30% wind probs erased in E. MI, 30% hail expanded further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 CU field going up kinda early is giving me mixed feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 So the SPC has the best chance to the south and the HRRR has everything blowing up and staying south later. This very promising week doesn't appear to be panning out at all for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Pesky E-W oriented outflow boundary keeping the clouds hanging in around here. Convection could trigger on it later on this afternoon but it seems to be capped at the moment. It is up to 80 degrees with a 66 dewpoint even without full sun and there's more sunshine and a cumulus field to the south. I guess you folks in WI are hoping things start lighting up before the forcing pushes farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Pesky E-W oriented outflow boundary keeping the clouds hanging in around here. Convection could trigger on it later on this afternoon but it seems to be capped at the moment. It is up to 80 degrees with a 66 dewpoint even without full sun and there's more sunshine and a cumulus field to the south. I guess you folks in WI are hoping things start lighting up before the forcing pushes farther SE. that weak front really isn't moving all that fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1124 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012 DISCUSSION 1025 AM CDT A SHORT WAVE/MCV TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS WI THIS MORNING WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. A SECONDARY AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS SEEN IN THE RADAR MOSAIC/VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST NORTH OF DUBUQUE. AHEAD OF THIS...AGITATED CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN WI AND FAR NORTHERN IL. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY UPPER 60S. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SEEN ON AREA ROABS HAS FURTHER AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS ANALYZED BY THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. EXPECT THAT AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN WI TRACK NORTHEAST...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED ON THEIR PERIPHERY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHERN IL THROUGH THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR HOURS. THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS DIMINISHING...ITS 35 KT NOSE POINTS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN IL...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED MOIST FEED UNDERNEATH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS FAIRLY THIN FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE. ITS CHALLENGING TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPRESSION IN THE WAKE OF THESE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON VORT MAXES...BECAUSE THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SO UNSETTLED. WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES ROOTED ALOFT AS WELL...THESE COULD OFFER A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE SEEN IN SOUTHERN KS ON WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER ANALYSIS TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...IN TANDEM WITH A RE- INCREASING LOW- LEVEL JET...STILL LOOKS TO PROMOTE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING TONIGHT. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Meanwhile northern lower is getting slammed again with even more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 First watch of the day for northern lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 that weak front really isn't moving all that fast Yea, the real front is still way back. A lot of outflow boundaries are around but the synoptic front isn't particularly well defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 GFS loads on the moisture across SE IA, Chicagoland & SW MI. Cumulus really building in this area - keeping the sun away for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Clouds don't seem like a huge issue to me maybe unless a thick deck suddenly sets in. I notice temps are struggling some out around Moline but much of northern IL is around or in the 80's with high dews, which combined with the steep mid-level lapse rates means that good instability is already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Clouds don't seem like a huge issue to me maybe unless a thick deck suddenly sets in. I notice temps are struggling some out around Moline but much of northern IL is around or in the 80's with high dews, which combined with the steep mid-level lapse rates means that good instability is already in place. yeah we finally realized some quality instability at a reasonable hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Mixed layer CAPE already close to 2500 over south central lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Mixed layer CAPE already close to 2500 over south central lower MI. The question is, will there be anything to trigger storms late this afternoon, or will things have to wait until this evening when the front slowly sinks into the area. I tend to feel that the severe threat would be diminished if the latter scenario happens, although I do feel there will be fairly widespread convection in either scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Lake breeze off Lake Erie should get things going for the immediate Detroit area. Note the breeze on the WV imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Big cell moving into Madison, dBZ 65+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Cell south of Madison, WI growing in intensity. Bears watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Cell south of Madison, WI growing in intensity. Bears watching... just looking out the window, the CU area getting close...still will be a brief show if anything with better forcing a ways off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Cell south of Madison, WI growing in intensity. Bears watching... Yes, I thought initiation might start in SC Wisconsin. Maybe more cells to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 just looking out the window, the CU area getting close...still will be a brief show if anything with better forcing a ways off Totally socked in with cumulus here. Yes, I thought initiation might start in SC Wisconsin. Maybe more cells to follow. Looks like this cell is heading more east than northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just heavy rain here, not even a gust of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just heavy rain here, not even a gust of wind. I guess the storm is strong enough for a SWS: Down towards Stoughton looks more intense. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO CENTRAL DANE COUNTY... AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF VERONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... FITCHBURG AND OREGON BY 1250 PM CDT... MONONA BY 100 PM CDT... MCFARLAND BY 105 PM CDT... COTTAGE GROVE BY 115 PM CDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Just had a very brief small hail storm. Went into Subway to get lunch, came out and it was pouring. Waited a minute and it had let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Dane County cell went severe! BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1254 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OREGON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MONONA...MCFARLAND...STOUGHTON...COTTAGE GROVE...DEERFIELD... CAMBRIDGE...LAKE RIPLEY...UTICA AND ROCKDALE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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