Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 you are new here.. posting a MAP that has a BIG low doesnt really work its HOW the Model gest the BIG low to that position that matters DT, I was reading some NWS AFDs, State College in particular, has said this: NCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. What is your take on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Big lake cutter for Christmas day. Kids get to ride their new bikes on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT, I was reading some NWS AFDs, State College in particular, has said this: NCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. What is your take on this? That is really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT, I was reading some NWS AFDs, State College in particular, has said this: NCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. What is your take on this? Well, I dont know what his take is...but I agree with that forecasters assessment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Here is my thinking on this event as of right now - http://tinyurl.com/35xydwd GFS and the DGEX is swell. The ECMWF will prolly catch on evantually. I'd say theres a 30-45% chance of a major snowfall along the east coast. I'd say there is a 57-65% chance of a major snowfall for the areas of the southern appalachians if the storm were to slide offshore. Any percentage based thoughts from you guys? Better question, not saying I agree or disagree but what are these percentages based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT, I was reading some NWS AFDs, State College in particular, has said this: NCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. What is your take on this? he MIGHT be right.... the sharpness of the trough as it goes negative on the 12z euro at 108 hrs would support the Low bring a tad closer the key may be where the southern low sets up.... over FL panhandlem or say over central/ northern GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Big lake cutter for Christmas day. Kids get to ride their new bikes on the east coast. The model seems to keep flip flopping on the Christmas time period with regards to a continuation of the general pattern we have had and a switch to a warmer pattern with lakes cutters. Does anyone have any opinion as to whcih way to lean? This is a heavy travel period and lots of people, inlcuding myself, will be traveling Christmas to New year's and are very interested in whether this pattern hold or breaks down. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The model seems to keep flip flopping on the Christmas time period with regards to a continuation of the general pattern we have had and a switch to a warmer pattern with lakes cutters. Does anyone have any opinion as to whcih way to lean? This is a heavy travel period and lots of people, inlcuding myself, will be traveling Christmas to New year's and are very interested in whether this pattern hold or breaks down. Thanks. The NAO could very well go positive after this storm on the 20th as the block retrogrades into central Canada so its quite likely if you ask me the next event does go inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 some have been saying this is totally different from Dec 19th of last year but like State College NWS I see some similarities also. That storm came on the heels of a massive -NAO with a retrograding block and a PV underneith that also was retrograding west and dropped in enough to phase. FOr this to happen it would have to be a similar setup. Now if you are talking about the other players like the STJ and patter in the Pacific then yea there are major differences globally but the more regional setup is very similar. With that said something concerns me a lot more with this setup then where we were 5-6 days out last year. Without a strong STJ this year the problem is the storm takes a little longer to get going. Last year even though no model had my area in significant snows until 72 hours before the event I felt very confident things would end well. However, all we needed last year was the typical north trend. This year its more of a west trend that is needed for places west of 95. I have noted over the years that getting a west trend seems a lot less frequent then getting a north trend. Many often times confused a north trend with a west trend because storms tend to take a sw to ne trajectory up the coast but there is a difference. This time around a north trend doesn't do much good, the interior mid atlantic needs the storm to bomb out faster and that is usually harder to get. Not trying to be negative and I think this could shift west some but I am not as confident as I was last year because of that difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 in 18z NAM 84hrs. I trust that is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that 50/50 Low really starts to get out of the way at the end of the 18z NAM run http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_500_m_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nogaps has a bad surpression bias after 72. Glad to see it where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that 50/50 Low really starts to get out of the way at the end of the 18z NAM run http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_500_m_loop.shtml I think we could start to see some mouthwatering NAM maps over the next few days. It has looked really amped at 84HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is the 18z UKIE at 60. It appears as if the PV as already moved NW out of the NNE and into Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is the 18z UKIE at 60. It appears as if the PV as already moved NW out of the NNE and into Quebec? is that what we want? and whats the link for this graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think we could start to see some mouthwatering NAM maps over the next few days. It has looked really amped at 84HR. I think some are making too much of the 84 hour NAM. Its possible from there that something could get going good for us...but its also possible that it takes a little too long to get amped up and misses us east. its certainly not in the GGEM/Euro camp but might not be as good as some are implying. I remain curious about this...think it has a real chance, but not necessarily optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL at the NAM. NAM or bust. For real though, some of the SREF members are pretty amped with the southern stream shortwave and even a few NMM members have a distinct and sharp PV anomaly/moderately strong shortwave trough dropping into the GOM. Not buying those solutions, of course, as not one global model suggests any of the sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think some are making too much of the 84 hour NAM. Its possible from there that something could get going good for us...but its also possible that it takes a little too long to get amped up and misses us east. its certainly not in the GGEM/Euro camp but might not be as good as some are implying. I remain curious about this...think it has a real chance, but not necessarily optimistic. I mean you have a point about the fact that its the 84 hr nam, but unless I'm misinformed the DGEX is an extension of the NAM and shows a hit similar to the 18z GFS. I also don't see anything on the NAM that would lead me to believe it wouldn't be a big hit. That being said, what we can actually gather from a model that is very good in the short term and not so good at the edge of its range is debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Impossible to tell from that image, its only SLP we need the h5 plots This is the 18z UKIE at 60. It appears as if the PV as already moved NW out of the NNE and into Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I mean you have a point about the fact that its the 84 hr nam, but unless I'm misinformed the DGEX is an extension of the NAM and shows a hit similar to the 18z GFS. I also don't see anything on the NAM that would lead me to believe it wouldn't be a big hit. That being said, what we can actually gather from a model that is very good in the short term and not so good at the edge of its range is debatable. The DGEX is run with NAM physics/grid and T+84 GFS initialization. It's NOT just an extrapolation of the 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The DGEX is run with NAM physics/grid and T+84 GFS initialization. It's NOT just an extrapolation of the 84 hr NAM. fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I mean you have a point about the fact that its the 84 hr nam, but unless I'm misinformed the DGEX is an extension of the NAM and shows a hit similar to the 18z GFS. I also don't see anything on the NAM that would lead me to believe it wouldn't be a big hit. That being said, what we can actually gather from a model that is very good in the short term and not so good at the edge of its range is debatable. DGEX was mostly a miss for DC, a few inches of snow but most of the precip stayed east, it was a huge hit for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not sure if posted, but unfortunately the individual 18z Ensembles all jogged East. Not nearly as robust as the 12z Ensembles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not sure if posted, but unfortunately the individual 18z Ensembles all jogged East. Not nearly as robust as the 12z Ensembles.... It was posted and it is not unusual in this timeframe in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It was posted and it is not unusual in this timeframe in my experience. it is not unusual for any timeframe, the gfs ensembles tend to be more progressive right up until the end. Its often times the weenies last hope when storms are forecasted to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.