yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 850 low has developed in C NC at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hate waiting for the h85 low to drag the 0c line south--- there is cold air at the surface its a tad warm aloft (South of CHO in VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Pretty good consistency with the GFS. Others seem to think that the EC and GGEM are coming back to a better solution. Hopefully this run, and its consistency, is a good sign. 18z and 12z almost identical at the surface in the SE and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 per NYC thread, NY gets clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NYC gets crushed...SECS for Philadelphia...probably same for DC. East of 12z but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So far, GFS looks to be....sticking to its guns. Consistent? Probably consistently wrong lol, i know why you feel this way. It has seemed to me in the past that if the GFS is switching directions from the 12z, it is usually the 0z run, i feel like 18z often is similar to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 this run is still a big hit from DC-BOS.......pummels nyc-bos with over a inch liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Track is near perfect for a DC-BOS hit the only reason why its not massive from DC-BOS is because the storm is light on QPF according to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 A little weaker than 12Z but basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 this run is still a big hit from DC-BOS.......pummels nyc-bos with over a inch liquid not as big no, everyone gets a lot to like tho, NE gets a little more of the action. look how it just craps out and spins over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Track is near perfect for a DC-BOS hit the only reason why its not massive from DC-BOS is because the storm is light on QPF according to the 18z. That's probably because the southern stream is pretty weak initially, it's not like last year when we had the giant plumes of moisture coming across the gulf ahead of the systems. The consistency of the gfs makes me think I should raise the odds to around 40% or so. Hopefully, tonight, the models will show a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 sfc low 14 mb weaker than the 12z on the Hr. 114 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't worry about QPF yet, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NYC and downeast ME get annihilated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't worry about QPF yet, guys. I'm just saying why this run will be drier than 12z...the track is near perfect for an I-95 MECS. I'm not confident until the Euro shows it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm just saying why this run will be drier than 12z...the track is near perfect for an I-95 MECS. I'm not confident until the Euro shows it, though. Track is very nice. QPF will move around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sharp cutoff sucks to no extent. Although still a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 a lot of that ME qpf will have BL issues, very low ratios and sleet. congrats KSIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Why does the storm appear to hook around the DC, Baltimore, Philly areas based on the qpf maps as it moves northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z NOGAPS gets so deep near the Benchmark that I can't tell how deep it is. Looks like about 959mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sharp cutoff sucks to no extent. Although still a decent hit. Im not sure we should be concerned with QPF at this point.. track isn't even for sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Im not sure we should be concerned with QPF at this point.. track isn't even for sure yet. You have to admit that if you're inland your chances diminish significantly. People are arguing about the coast even getting snow. If you're 120 miles NW of the coast then big things need to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hate waiting for the h85 low to drag the 0c line south--- there is cold air at the surface its a tad warm aloft (South of CHO in VA) IF pattern goes as depicted, hopefully the models are overdoing the warmth @ 850; may be more mixing from the cold from the lower levels from snow pack., (may mean more sleet but who knows) It seems the models don't always "factor in" the affects of snow cover in the mountains in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't look at maps as much as some of you but I see remarkable levels of agreement between the nam and gfs out to 84 hours... http://www.vincentsapone.com/wxcast/gfsnam8518z.html Is this common at such a short time frame? Its like looking at a mirror image..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 While it is nice that the GFS still shows the storm, it is a bit disconcerting that it shifted east slightly. With barely any support from other models, its not a stretch to call the GFS an outlier. But as they say, its 5 days away anything can happen and I hope it does. Edit: By no support I mean a I-95 hit, obviously most of the models have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 While it is nice that the GFS still shows the storm, it is a bit disconcerting that it shifted east slightly. With barely any support from other models, its not a stretch to call the GFS an outlier. But as they say, its 5 days away anything can happen and I hope it does. I disagree somewhat, obviously all models are pretty much in support of a storm, its just the track, and the trend in my opinion with these models is for storms to trend northwest a couple days before the storm, I really dont care that the GFS shifted slightly east with an 18z run that is known to have a little Southeast bias...Point is this is our best shot so far at a storm, lets enjoy tracking it and not get caught up into too much model hype and arguing until say thursday 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You have to admit that if you're inland your chances diminish significantly. People are arguing about the coast even getting snow. If you're 120 miles NW of the coast then big things need to change. 120 hours out they most likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z GFS ens way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z NOGAPS gets so deep near the Benchmark that I can't tell how deep it is. Looks like about 959mb. you are new here.. posting a MAP that has a BIG low doesnt really work its HOW the Model gest the BIG low to that position that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 one other reason the ensemble mean is east of the 12z mean it may have taken away the 1 or 2 cutters it had at 12z thus the farther east look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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