yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The NAM is running. At 36 hrs on h5, the large low in the NE appears to have shifted NW some when you compare it to the 12z h5 at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z NAM is colder and a little wetter for Central and SW VA--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its still gonna whiff areas north of say Fredericksburg probably. Looks like an interesting system for KY and SW VA....WSW up down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 There appears to be some diffremces on the 18z run in contrast with the 12z run on the h5 level, especially with the PV. Look at the 18z 60 and the 12z 66 and compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There appears to be some diffremces on the 18z run in contrast with the 12z run on the h5 level, especially with the PV. Look at the 18z 60 and the 12z 66 and compare Indeed. The PV is more symmetrical at 18z, thus providing a little more confluence over the northeast at hour 60. Out west, the ridging is greater, and the shortwave phasing into the trough around the four corners region looks sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its still gonna whiff areas north of say Fredericksburg probably. Looks like an interesting system for KY and SW VA....WSW up down that way Yeah, GFS was more bullish at noon and now the NAM could be following. Backwards--- NAM as is 2-4 inches--all snow. Maybe some -zr at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Who knows what's right, but both NAM and GFS have trended more north with the system Thurs. The SREF's have as well. Who knows what will happen, but that's the trend. Edit: Also, the timing of this thing is quite variable with the last four runs of the NAM. Don't know what to make of that either, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any update for the weekend in the latest run? Seems like the hotter chance. The NAM has decent ridging alone the SE coast---both at 18z and 12z---everything is a smidge quicker at 18z and the energy is a little more ragid, but it looks like in the next 12 hours our storm would form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM looks like a miss with the weekend storm. huh? Look at the 300mb jet, its even more amplified than the 12z GFS, wat r u looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM seems to be closer in agreement to 12z GFS huh? Look at the 300mb jet, its even more amplified than the 12z GFS, wat r u looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM looks like a miss with the weekend storm. Explain, in detail. How and why is it a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Explain, in detail. How and why is it a miss? Especially considering the shortwaves actually phase on the 18z NAM and the storm is beginning to organize... extrapolated, the 18z NAM would likely be a major hit. The ridge is more amplified over the SE coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Is that a piece of the PV swinging down in the Plains at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its still gonna whiff areas north of say Fredericksburg probably. Looks like an interesting system for KY and SW VA....WSW up down that way It also looks like a high bust potential in that the temps are iffy. Of course I'm only looking at 850's and I imagine that the surface will still be cold. But as someone who grew up down there, on the other side of those mountains, warm air pushing in from the SW wins every time in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Explain, in detail. How and why is it a miss? Looks like the NAM is a much better setup. The actual solution of the system is well-beyond the range of the NAM though. s/w is digging and the ridge out West is popping. All the while, the blocking ridge is still retrograding and there is energy over the Lakes just waiting to get pushed South into the amplified STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like the NAM is a much better setup. The actual solution of the system is well-beyond the range of the NAM though. s/w is digging and the ridge out West is popping. All the while, the blocking ridge is still retrograding and there is energy over the Lakes just waiting to get pushed South into the amplified STJ. Yes, thank you. I know its beyond the range for the day of, but interesting for the setup itself. Back in another 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like the NAM is a much better setup. The actual solution of the system is well-beyond the range of the NAM though. s/w is digging and the ridge out West is popping. All the while, the blocking ridge is still retrograding and there is energy over the Lakes just waiting to get pushed South into the amplified STJ. The amplification compared to the GFS is noticeable at 42 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z DGEX is a beast. Comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Explain, in detail. How and why is it a miss? Sorry. Mistyped. I meant to say weekday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ehh DGEX is a pretty good hit for the coastal mid atlantic and New England but mostly a miss for IAD, DCA, and BWI or anyone west of Philly. 18z DGEX is a beast. Comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 more amplified @ hr78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 at 60 hrs on18z v. 66 on12z, 850 temps are a smidge warmer in the MA I would guess that we should see at least as good storm using that criteria alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Should be another big hit based on 96HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 weaker southern shortwave, but more pv phasing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Look at that 300mb...now if only the Euro was showing something that amplified.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Very juicy low down off SC coast at 102... snow is reaching up to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So far, GFS looks to be....sticking to its guns. Consistent? Probably consistently wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This is almost a carbon copy of 12z at the surface, with the exception of the low being a little weaker at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I caution people. The way this storm develops this run is totally different then the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 not as powerful at 108, same position, no closed 700mb yet as opposed to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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