Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Still at 80. Forecast was 86...still not totally out of the question but gonna be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Winds are gusting at 20mph this hour in the South Bend area. Still at 80. Forecast was 86...still not totally out of the question but gonna be tough. Not much sun today. Still made it to the 80s by lunch time at least. Around 80 this hour into lower Michigan up to Grand Rapids and down the shoreline into northwest Indiana right next to Chicago. Lots of cloud cover today. Chicago still can't get above the mid 70s this hour. Even worse for Peoria stuck in that rain and can't get out of the 60s. But like you said still there are more hours of the day so we will see what happens in the next 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Up to 73 now here. Clouds are slowly thinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 77 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I'm right in between the thick clouds and clearing to the north. I can just make out the outline of the sun. 75° currently. UGN's observation as being sunny is false! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The sun looks hazy out. On May 10th, 2011 we had four consecutive days in the 80s, two of those days were 88 and one was 89. Clearly I don't see that happening before May 10th this year because the only day I see like that around here that could get up to the upper 80s could be tomorrow maybe. The cold front is likely on Friday. But we are off to a good start with the first week of May being this warm. This will still be the warmest start to May we have had in several years in my area. The last 3 years we have only been in the 60s and 70s at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 75/64. The air feels a lot more springlike compared to the last several days with the added humidity and warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Beautiful day today but looking forward to the nice and cool wx next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Thick clouds have quickly filled in across Iowa this afternoon. Our temp hit about 74, but has fallen back a bit. I think many areas across the state may fall short of predicted highs again. The RAP model this morning had storms firing across Iowa by now, but it was clearly overestimating some of the factors like temp. It had 80s here by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 boundary clear on visible (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 My newly updated point predicts 1 to 2 inches of rain tonight, so apparently they have not bought into a south shift in the MCS activity yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Up to 77 °F! Beautiful clear day, hopefully it's gonna give way to a stormy night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Thick clouds have quickly filled in across Iowa this afternoon. Our temp hit about 74, but has fallen back a bit. I think many areas across the state may fall short of predicted highs again. The RAP model this morning had storms firing across Iowa by now, but it was clearly overestimating some of the factors like temp. It had 80s here by early afternoon. Run after run the RAP continually lights up eastern Iowa like crazy late afternoon, and all through the evening. Kind of makes you wonder if it's on to something. The fact that it's overdoing instability though makes it somewhat questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Run after run the RAP continually lights up eastern Iowa like crazy late afternoon, and all through the evening. Kind of makes you wonder if it's on to something. The fact that it's overdoing instability though makes it somewhat questionable. been watching it as well, really slow to move out of there into extreme northern Illinois as well. The instability thing is as issue but elevated storm should easily be able to thrive on that llj with a decent mucape feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 been watching it as well, really slow to move out of there into extreme northern Illinois as well. The instability thing is as issue but elevated storm should easily be able to thrive on that llj with a decent mucape feed. 100% agree. Should be a hell of a lightshow later on tonight for a wide east/west swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 New 18z NAM blows up convection over eastern Iowa similar to the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Feels like t-storms could pop at any time here. Near full sun, humid and hot IMO. 78°/ HI: 81°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 This is worth a read for those in the southern camp. This is the whole question: does the convection tend to turn ENE as it enters the Upper Mississippi Valley or ESE/SE? TONIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS CONCERNING POTENTIAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL LIFT NE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING POINTING INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GOOD MASS CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ IN AN AREA OF MU CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TRACK SUBSEQUENT MCS ENE...THOUGH AM EXPECTING THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE BADGER STATE AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE 12Z GFS DOES TRY TO RAM THE LLJ INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WITHOUT MUCH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE FLOW DOES TURN A BIT MORE SW OVERNIGHT AS THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE A MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES...THOUGH ALWAYS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE POSSIBILITIES FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS TO A LESSER EXTENT. CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH SOME GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS WELL OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. WILL TRY TO CAP IT AROUND THERE...SINCE THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 80F/60F...like a perfect summer day. Not too hot, not too humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 80 degrees out. Alek 70s fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 New 18z NAM blows up convection over eastern Iowa similar to the RAP. That's a new model on me. Link? S WI has heavy rain as the forecast tonight all the way to the border. Could get interesting around here tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 That's a new model on me. Link? S WI has heavy rain as the forecast tonight all the way to the border. Could get interesting around here tonight! It replaced the RUC yesterday. Twisterdata has switched over now. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=05&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=20&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 80 degrees out. Alek 70s fail. re-calibrate...77 up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 It replaced the RUC yesterday. Twisterdata has switched over now. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Ok. Thanks Few small cells popping SE of you along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Ok. Thanks Few small cells popping SE of you along I-80. Yeah, taking off pretty quickly. Up over 30kft already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I have a feeling the action is about to start up soon. Starting to popup out there already this afternoon... around Lasalle, IL, Madelia, MN. Currently Chicago O'Hare is sitting at 80F at 5pm central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Yeah, taking off pretty quickly. Up over 30kft already. went up quick but are struggling as they push east....storm motion nearly due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 went up quick but are struggling as they push east....storm motion nearly due east. Yep, jinxed it lol. I was about ready to go after them just for the hell of it. I still may if I see a new robust updraft go up. Not too far away. SPC doesn't have a tornado threat in this area, but if something were to become surface based the hodo looks pretty favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Yep, jinxed it lol. I was about ready to go after them just for the hell of it. I still may if I see a new robust updraft go up. Not too far away. SPC doesn't have a tornado threat in this area, but if something were to become surface based the hodo looks pretty favorable. I'm going to head out for a bike ride down the lake in an hour, would be nice to see some towers but i have a feeling i'll be a little early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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