Tropical Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 How is that near 90 you were calling for today working out...my point is down to 74...the game has changed. I'm sure the 12z hi-res will show this as well. Warm front is already pushing north of me. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Warm front is already pushing north of me. Fail. how is that 90 working out for you. Effective warm front still well south. Enjoy your upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Notice how Alek always shifts things south into his area. LOL. great minds think alike from Izzi @ LOT GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD ILLINOIS NOW SHOULD ONLY ACT TO RE-ENFORCE...TEND TO THINK THE FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 great minds think alike from Izzi @ LOT GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD ILLINOIS NOW SHOULD ONLY ACT TO RE-ENFORCE...TEND TO THINK THE FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS Even model guidance looks to take the heaviest rain/storms a tad north of Milwaukee, so I think you will be a tad too far south tonight, but you're looking good for some great boomers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Clouds are even hindering the warming a little this far south. Just hit 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Even model guidance looks to take the heaviest rain/storms a tad north of Milwaukee, so I think you will be a tad too far south tonight, but you're looking good for some great boomers tomorrow. I guess you didn't read the meso update, much less the excerpt i posted. :shrugs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Clouds are even hindering the warming a little this far south. Just hit 80. Sounds almost hot to me lol. Thick clouds plaguing us again today. One of the cooler locations around at 67. Should finally clear off by 2-3pm. LOL @ tornado probs being moved away from the DVN area again. Has happened numerous times already this spring. DVN put a big goose egg on the board for tornadoes last year. Maybe they'll do it again this year. Definitely NOT a bad thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I guess you didn't read the meso update, much less the excerpt i posted. :shrugs: I read it, I'm just questioning the degree of how much. Just because Izzi expects it to be farther south than guidance doesn't mean he expects the worst to hit YBY, he just is entertaining the possibility that Chicago could get more rain/storms than guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I read it, I'm just questioning the degree of how much. Just because Izzi expects it to be farther south than guidance doesn't mean he expects the worst to hit YBY, he just is entertaining the possibility that Chicago could get more rain/storms than guidance suggests. hi-res has the heaviest from the iowa/wi/ill area into northern illinois...so maybe this will miss MBY south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 hi-res has the heaviest from the iowa/wi/ill area into northern illinois...so maybe this will miss MBY south. I can't find the model you are referring to. I looked at LaCrosse's disco and they said the Hi-Res ARW seemed to have a better handle on it, and I looked at the 0z ARW, and it showed the southern half of Wisconsin getting convection coming in from N Iowa. LaCrosse still expects convection in N Iowa to develop eastward, which would def not miss your area south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Hey I'll take upper 70s any day! I'd rather be in the 70s then uncomfortable sticky 90s lol. Right now in Northwest Indiana it is 81 at Gary Airport and 81 in Hobart. 78 at Valparaiso Airport. South Bend Airport at 77 and 79 in Mishawaka in Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I can't find the model you are referring to. I looked at LaCrosse's disco and they said the Hi-Res ARW seemed to have a better handle on it, and I looked at the 0z ARW, and it showed the southern half of Wisconsin getting convection coming in from N Iowa. LaCrosse still expects convection in N Iowa to develop eastward, which would def not miss your area south. new 12z...sags SE from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 new 12z...sags SE from here Considering this is the only model showing the MCS this far south, I don't think it is wise to ride it, and think the convection will miss you south if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Considering this is the only model showing the MCS this far south, I don't think it is wise to ride it, and think the convection will miss you south if anything. it initiated and handled the current conditions best MCS forms over Iowa, push east into far sw WI and then slide ESE weakening into far S. WI/N. Illinois....take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 it initiated and handled the current conditions best The MKX WRF initialized well with the storms it appears at 12z as well, and shows storms from S Wisconsin back through E Iowa at 3z. I'll link in a second. This is what it looked like for 15z, pretty close to what happened: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/wrf/wrf4l.php This is what it looks like at 3z http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/wrf/wrf4l.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The MKX WRF initialized well with the storms it appears at 12z as well, and shows storms from S Wisconsin back through E Iowa at 3z. I'll link in a second. MKX will see action, Cromartie is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 This is what it looked like for 15z, pretty close to what happened: not even remotely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 These MCS like to run over the same areas in a short amount of time. Seen it many times. The boundary laid out by the one last night will be the focus for the next one! Lots of clouds here, at 73°/61°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 not even remotely close A lot of the models last night were showing the southern flank of the MCS moving SE into the Quad Cities region, just like what happened, yet they still showed the MCS in a similar region to what most are showing now. I think you're flipping gears to one solution too soon. What if the boundary rises back northward quickly? What if the storms are slower to get going, giving the boundary more time to shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 A lot of the models last night were showing the southern flank of the MCS moving SE into the Quad Cities region, just like what happened, yet they still showed the MCS in a similar region to what most are showing now. I think you're flipping gears to one solution too soon. What if the boundary rises back northward quickly? What if the storms are slower to get going, giving the boundary more time to shift north? nah, i think models have a good handle, decent MCS for Iowa slowly pusing into far SW WI / NW IL....remnants east. another day in the 70s for Cromartie tomorrow...i hear a couple of the glacier atop Mt Saukville are holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Hmmm, the warm frontal position seems pretty close based on TWC's graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Hmmm, the warm frontal position seems pretty close based on TWC's graphic. lol, who cares...effective boundary well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 MKX does acknowledge that the likely MCS forming in Neb/Iowa may pass just south, but also seems to indicate a continual eastern movement, no southeast component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 KVYS (La Salle-Peru) gusting to 48mph now on the backside of those decaying showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 KVYS (La Salle-Peru) gusting to 48mph now on the backside of those decaying showers. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Feels like the convo is going in circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 All that really matters is effective boundary placement. Synoptic boundaries often lay dormant in these type of situations when the BL gets thoroughly turned over by a large MCS. In today's case, the BL has been highly impacted by the morning MCS/associated cloud cover. Later on this evening when the LLJ gets ramped up there probably will be a lot of small elevated storms firing over northeast Iowa/far northern IL/southern WI. The main show though will be the complex that blows up over Nebraska and moves east through Iowa along the retreating effective boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Convection is tricky but I'd go with whatever initialized best...that would give you the best chance of being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The LLJ does get pretty impressive after dark. 45kts just off the surface at 925mb over northern IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 first time i've looked at the RAP...does seem to be picking up where the RUC left off. That llj is legit but it sure is slow to push the convection east...might need a nice cold pool to help push things along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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