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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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going to be interesting to see how far north and west the defo band pushes back tonight...it's possible there will be an overlap area nearby that sees 2" from both bands.

RPM model shows the defo band covering Lake and Cook Counties at least tonight. 2"+ of rain for eastern Cook. Skilling mention "lake enhancement" rain tonight! A term you don't hear often outside of winter! 46° with mod. rain right now!

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This is not easy to do in the middle of the day on the last day of May. It'd be one thing if there were 40's in a localized area along the lake but that is not the case. Even though highs occurred after midnight, there's a chance that some of these areas stay in the 40's throughout the afternoon.

post-14-0-54660500-1338487924_thumb.jpg

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RPM model shows the defo band covering Lake and Cook Counties at least tonight. 2"+ of rain for eastern Cook. Skilling mention "lake enhancement" rain tonight! A term you don't hear often outside of winter! 46° with mod. rain right now!

Sounds good...was starting to notice early signs of moisture problems on area plants.

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anyone know what is causing the faint radar return that hugs the shoreline along Chicago?

Lake Enhancement.. It will even get "stronger" through the day as winds pick up a bit and the full fetch winds develop!

Skilling's graphic, bottom right image..

543270_10150969002026760_87625716759_12369206_1316340597_n.jpg

There will be some lake enhancement of this rain. Big Delta T's (temp drop from the lake surface temp to 850 mb--5,000 ft aloft) with this system and a near full fetch NNE wind developing and strengthening as Thu night comes on.

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I hope we get all the rain that is in the forecast, anyone stating they want a miss on this is just a drought monger.

No.

Some would prefer if our rains came from frequent convection episodes versus a long duation light stratiform rain event with below average temperatures.

But ultimately whatever happens will happen.

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Even though it will bring little more then a steady rain for most people here, this is a very impressive system for May/June.

I wish we can save this system for December.

Actually this would miss most of the Detroit area. Good track for Chicago to Alpena if it was a snow system.

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probably some bright banding

Definite bright banding. Radar estimates are useless today. We've found that Dual Pol doesn't do well when the freezing levels are low and the melting layer gets involved. Dual Pol storm total estimating 6" in western Lee and Ogle counties! Highest report through early afternoon was 1.15" from the NIU campus.

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No.

Some would prefer if our rains came from frequent convection episodes versus a long duation light stratiform rain event with below average temperatures.

But ultimately whatever happens will happen.

Ummm.. No.

In terms of drought relief these types of "systems" >>> convection.. These are the best types of systems for drought relief as they bring a uniform longer duration type of soaking. Basic stuff but convective episodes otoh are usually isolated/scattered and only drop decent rains in parts of areas..

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No.

Some would prefer if our rains came from frequent convection episodes versus a long duation light stratiform rain event with below average temperatures.

But ultimately whatever happens will happen.

This.

I would take evening Summer T-Storm rain over the pending forecast any day. Just not a fan of this rain.

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As much as I may not "be a fan" of stratiform rains like today... I'd more than willingly take one of these once or twice a month to keep the drought away. The localized nature of convection doesn't really do the trick...

I mean obviously severe storms are more fun than this but wishing for bone dry conditions over occasional boring rain is silly.

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