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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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pretty cool seeing the boundaries on radar, both the northward pushing sfc warm front (also marked well by the cu) and the slowly moving lake breeze oriented WNW-ESE across the area

Second lake breeze boundary just pushed through PWK and is now visible too.

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Wow, that lake breeze pushed 60s all the way into Naperville! That had some power behind it. At 58.7° here. Cooling the house as much as I can this evening, before I shut it up early in the morning.

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Impressive, that back door front has cleared Kankakee and La Salle also. The NE winds here are gusty. The cool dense air wins out for now!

Edit: Interesting disco from LOT-

000

FXUS63 KLOT 270054

AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

754 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY

BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WITH OVERALL

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER LITTLE IF ANY HELP...SO

WILL CONTINUE TO LIVE IN THE OBSERVATIONAL WORLD.

LATEST THINKING CONTINUES FROM EARLIER THINKING...THAT THE BEST

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE

NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN BEFORE CHANCES SHIFT NORTH AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME

FRAME. SO HAVE NOT ADJUSTED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WAS

DEBATING BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME

HIGH RES MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING WEST OF

OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

WITH 14 DEGREE AIR AT 700MB PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND LATEST 00Z

DVN SOUNDING SHOWING A DECENT CAP IN PLACE...I AM FINDING IT HARD

TO BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE SEVERAL

OTHER FACTORS WHICH ARE LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THIS POSSIBILITY

MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR FETCHED. AS THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS

SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION...COULD

FOR SEE CURRENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND

INTERACT WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY TO HELP INITIATE

CONVECTION. THEN WITH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AN INCREASING

LLJ COULD HELP FOCUS ANY CONVECTION INTO SOME TYPE OF COMPLEX.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS

WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO

MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

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Starting to look more and more like this area might get skipped over on the Monday setup. Storms may fire just east again based on much of the latest guidance. May escape this whole setup again without any rain. Looking more and more like 2005 everyday. Everything that summer either dried up before it got here or skipped over us and hammered Chicago.

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