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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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watch the line pushing near the WI/IL border...really going to push the boundary south...hard to believe upper 90s are on deck for tomorrow.

That is an elevated boundary that has all formed on, the surface front is across Central IL.

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i've watched a few outflow boundaries push south off that complex

Yeah but that complex is moving East with nothing behind it and it is only 8:20AM, I think the warm front will have no problem blasting through your area later today.

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The NAM painting some moderate CAPE 3000jg + over parts of lower MI tomorrow. Don't light a match.

Been showing that for a while. Doubt we break the cap though...should just be a straight up scorcher of a day.

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What a noisy and wet morning! Woke up to thunder around 6am, then downpours and lightning all the way to 10am. Just quit raining now. Breezy and cool in the upper 50s now. 1"+ of rain for sure. Off, I'm half way there! 0.52".

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It's amazing how poorly most of the models have fared with the last day's convection. The 0z NAM still was unable to pick up on this morning's MCS over N Iowa, S Wisconsin and N Illinois.

The NAM really messed up the precipitation placement. The RPM and WRF-NMM got it!

Predicted high of 75°, may not happen given 20 mph gusts off the lake today!

Edit: DLL better watch to the west! T-storm complex headed east-southeast.

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The NAM really messed up the precipitation placement. The RPM and WRF-NMM got it!

Predicted high of 75°, may not happen given 20 mph gusts off the lake today!

Edit: DLL better watch to the west! T-storm complex headed east-southeast.

Yeah, I should have clarified, most of the long range models screwed up. The HRRR and RPM/local models, as you said, have indicated some MCS activity in the region.

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78/52 here in Dunlap. 89 at Lafayette and 85 at Indpls. Guess where the surface warm front is. This could get interesting for storms up here in Michiana later this evening depending upon formation of a MCS and how it curves along the boundary. Sparty, hopefully next weekend will be great for hiking. One of my favorite things to do in state and county parks as well.

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LOT disco. on today's forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

1115 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SE WI AND NE IL AT LATE MORNING WILL

BE E OF LOCAL AREA BY 12 NOON CDT. ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE OFF TO THE E WITH THE SHORT WAVE

TROUGH. CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION RETURNS LATER AFTERNOON AS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO ALONG OR

NEAR THE IA...WI...IL BORDER JUNCTION BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL IL

INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS

MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND BE NEAR THE WI

BORDER BY 00Z. WHILE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING

ELEVATED CAPE AS MID LEVELS WARM THIS MID LEVEL WARMING WILL ALSO

INCREASE MID LEVEL CAPPING. WITH NO LOW LEVEL FEATURES TO PROVIDE

THE LIFT TO OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE CAPE AREA THE THREAT OF

CONVECTION S OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS

EVENING WILL BE FROM MINIMAL N WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE

LOCATED...TO NIL S WHERE STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S

ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE FA AS THE WARN FRONT WILL BE PASSING

NORTHWARD WHILE NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND

LOWER 80S AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS

PART OF THE FA UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAR THE IL

LAKESHORE WILL BE HELD MOSTLY TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS A

COMBINATION OF THE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF

THE WARM FRONT AND A CONTRIBUTION TO THE E FLOW DUE TO

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ADVECTS BL AIR OVER THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S

WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI.

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already plenty of MUCAPE to work with around here and points west, would be really nice to have a late MCS plow through here tonight.

80/58 here with southeast winds.

damn...i'm 61-62 at best. Convection chances are interesting but pretty slim

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