hm8 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 52 mph non-tstm wind gust in Green, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 18z NAM is scorching..upper 90s into DTW and ORD Indeed... 95/Sat and 97-98/Sun for ORD. 95/Sun for DTW. It went back to a faster northward push of the warm front on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Indeed... 95/Sat and 97-98/Sun for ORD. 95/Sun for DTW. It went back to a faster northward push of the warm front on Sat. FWIW, I got 74-75° for Saturday. I still think upper 90s are pushing it. Those are incredible dust storm pictures! Never seen anything like that this far east before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 That's likely part of it. It has been a long time of course since we've had any serial derechoes in th Great Lakes region (August 2007 was arguably the last one), or any tornado outbreaks where as thy did seem to happen more frequently in the 1990s. Basically, it's the coverage and intensity of any individual severe weather events that's been unimpressive recently versus the frequency of them or the grand total severe weather events. You need to specify here whether you are talking about the GL region as a whole or simply Michigan, since June 5th/6th, 2010 was certainly a significant tornado outbreak in the GL region, and there have been others, I'll let other people fill those in. Even if we're only talking about Michigan, this statement still is largely false... How about Dexter on March 15th of this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Could only plot significant hail/wind because otherwise there would have been too many reports to plot. Based on this, I don't really see a massive difference in severe storm occurrence in the areas being compared. That's from 1950 to now. In my post I said ReCNTLY (not historically). It would be interesting the numbers for, say, the last 5 years... It may have something to do with the record-breaking -NAO block and the solar miniumum we've had (the 1990s featured a predominately +NAO and a solar maximum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Those are incredible dust storm pictures! Never seen anything like that this far east before. My wife and I were heading north for anniversary dinner. Couldn't believe it. Thought they were tilling but fields are already growing. This was crazy. Skilling airing them at 9:30 weather segment. Lake Geneva in the bay is boiling and moored boats are rolling nicely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Uh.... or ya know, just more stratiform boring rain I'm not in total disagreement with you...I think there are several statistics that show at least MI might not get as much severe wx as areas in IL and OH/IN T-storm Watch Frequency: http://www.spc.noaa....wcm/10ysvra.gif SPC Slight Risks Per Year: http://www.patricktm...gtriskclimo.png But watches and SPC outlooks probably aren't as good of an indicator as Storm Reports are, and from the map Hoosier posted, we can see it's pretty evenly spread into MI. Again, I'm not talking about severe events only. I'm talking thunderstorms in general. A lot of the Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Southern Wisconsin, MCS events are just disorganized blobs of convection on the nose of a nocturnal low level jet. Such events don't often produce severe weather other than flash flooding but I still happen to enjoy them if they ever manage to set up far enough northeast into Michigan. They at least produce prolific lightning shows and a good widespread watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It is way too warm for this time of night! High of the day here at 83° now. Hurry up cold front! lol Edit: Just saw your pictures on tv Kevlon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Indeed... 95/Sat and 97-98/Sun for ORD. 95/Sun for DTW. It went back to a faster northward push of the warm front on Sat. 00z even more widespread with the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Lack of Rain = Worst allergies I have experienced in a long time!. Brutal. Praying for a downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 0z NAM keeps the real heat away from ORD Saturday. Check out the gradient in northern IL at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2012 Author Share Posted May 25, 2012 0z NAM keeps the real heat away from ORD Saturday. Check out the gradient in northern IL at 7pm. That's the 4km nested run. The 0z NAM BUFKIT has 95 for ORD on Sat...and 98 on Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Got deluged with 0.03" of rain from a few small cells that went over an hour ago or so. Grass is turning brown and about to turn to straw here soon. Kind of reminds me of '05. The winter before that summer was pretty snowless here as well. Dry spring conditions lead to a dry summer and lots of intense heat. I'll take this any day over the miserable cold and wet summer of 08 or 09, can't remember which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Have to cave and turn the AC on. Still 81° at 11pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Indeed... 95/Sat and 97-98/Sun for ORD. 95/Sun for DTW. It went back to a faster northward push of the warm front on Sat. This would tie the all time may record for KDTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Have to cave and turn the AC on. Still 81° at 11pm! Cooling off quickly here now that the front has passed through. Down to 71 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Cooling off quickly here now that the front has passed through. Down to 71 now. I was hoping it would have fallen off into the 70s ahead of the front. This brick house really holds the heat in, which is nice in the winter, but not with 80s or 90s! Probably only have it on 3 hours or so tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The NAM looks like the warmest model out there...even a bit warmer than the ECMWF. Will be interesting to see what wins out. You'd sorta think the warmer end might given recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I know it's overdone but for the GFS to be forecasting 75 dew points and LI's from -14 to -16 in May is pretty crazy. Does that from OAX-southern IA down to STL on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I know it's overdone but for the GFS to be forecasting 75 dew points and LI's from -14 to -16 in May is pretty crazy. Does that from OAX-southern IA down to STL on Saturday. Maly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I know it's overdone but for the GFS to be forecasting 75 dew points and LI's from -14 to -16 in May is pretty crazy. Does that from OAX-southern IA down to STL on Saturday. Nice avatar. Must be nice to have a tornado in 2012 lol. Gonna be a hot weekend around here as well. Looking like 92 Saturday and maybe 95 Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I know it's overdone but for the GFS to be forecasting 75 dew points and LI's from -14 to -16 in May is pretty crazy. Does that from OAX-southern IA down to STL on Saturday. I haven't looked but I bet a thermonuclear cap too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Nice avatar. Must be nice to have a tornado in 2012 lol. Gonna be a hot weekend around here as well. Looking like 92 Saturday and maybe 95 Sunday. I have 8 very nice considering I only saw 1 last year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 what a waste of some great wind shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I have 8 very nice considering I only saw 1 last year lol Nice that is a really good year and it is only mid/late May Nothing beats sitting at a balmy 75 at 1am in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 what a waste of some great wind shear Quite the dewpoint depression through the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 what a waste of some great wind shear Yeah it's hard to get hodos like that around here. This area loves to veer to **** or morning junkvection COC blocks the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Another dry frontal passage. Last decent rain was way back on May 6th here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 1/2 inch of rain here.... Still could use a couple of inches. Saying 94F here Sunday. Crank up the AC on Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 HPC has been gradually shifting tonight's rain event northward into northern Iowa. The next week doesn't look promising, either. We need a couple inches of rain, but even a half inch tonight would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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