Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 NAM BUFKIT is showing 96 around here on Sat...Obviously depends on how quickly the warm front pushes northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 Skilling is going with 97 for Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Hmm, 97° for Chicago Sunday. That seems too high. 93° is my prediction.0 0z GFS showing a MCS moving from IA across N IL/S WI, W MI. Saturday afternoon. Edit: On a side note, I've noticed that there isn't many mosquitoes present. Anyone else only encountering a few? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'll say 95 at ORD on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 6/2/90, 5/13/95, 6/5-6/10, 5/31/85, 5/30/04, 5/29/82, etc. I'm just talking climatology in general. The Great Lakes get less action than the surrounding areas. Something I noticed all my life here. In the central heat ridge pattern Minnesota and Wisconsin get hammered with lots of rain and everything trying to move into Michigan is drying up / weakening. Then when the pattern goes more zonal everything is suppressed south into central Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I don't recall an April or May being this quiet - in this region. Very very quiet. Drought rules - very dry down here. I agree Beau. Although the SE US is getting hit hard with drought, there is a tongue that extends up through your area, then up through IL and Western and Northern IN. I've only received 2.26" in my CoCoRaHS gauge (blatant plug) since 3/24. Not only no severe, very little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 97 is a good call for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 looks like a beach day Sunday...95 in May...pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 hoping i can hang onto the upper 70s right on the lake today but I think that might be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 About 80° predicted here today. Wind is slicing off the lake with a SE wind. Feels pretty nice out. 77° here, with low 80s < 5 miles west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The all time record high for May here is 92, we might give that a run especially with such dry soils. This also pretty much solidifies a record warmest spring by far for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Already 85 here with screaming southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 12z NAM looks like it slows down the progression of the warm front during the afternoon on Saturday, depending on how much precip is along/north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 12z NAM looks like it slows down the progression of the warm front during the afternoon on Saturday, depending on how much precip is along/north of it. Indeed. Not surprising since it was different than most guidance. The NAM is in range of Sun now, and is showing 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I was just thinking, if a MCS moves across the area on Saturday - the wet soils might temper the heat for Sunday. The trade off though would be higher dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I was just thinking, if a MCS moves across the area on Saturday - the wet soils might temper the heat for Sunday. The trade off though would be higher dewpoints. quality MCS potential looks meager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin always hog all the rain and t-storms this time of year. They just have better climatology. The lakes and ohio valley get the leftover scraps of dying MCS debris and trailing cold fronts with no good forcing. Historically and climatologically, there is no truth to this statement. The GLOV region is a hotbed of historical tornado activity, it is the derecho capital of the nation, and, somewhat related to derechos, is ground-zero for NW-flow severe wx setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Author Share Posted May 24, 2012 The all time record high for May in Chicago is 98 (31st - 1934). It could be close if the NAM/ECMWF are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 12z NAM looks like it slows down the progression of the warm front during the afternoon on Saturday, depnding on how much precip is along/north of it. But it is by far the furthest north with the front out of all the models from the get-go. It has us getting into the low-mid 80s tomorrow, with a pretty decent temperture gradient setting up, ranging from low-mid 90s aound Metro Airport (where as we'll be good to get into the 80s on the other models) to low-mid 70s around Mt. Clemens on Saturday. One thing to get an eye on will be Saturday evening. Models have been trying to pop an MCV over Lak Michigan and gradually move it eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Historically and climatologically, there is no truth to this statement. The GLOV region is a hotbed of historical tornado activity, it is the derecho capital of the nation, and, somewhat related to derechos, is ground-zero for NW-flow severe wx setups. I was actually thinking about this the other day. It does seem that the corn belt is the sweet spot for derechos. If you were gonna paint an area called "derecho alley" where would you place it exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'm just talking climatology in general. The Great Lakes get less action than the surrounding areas. Something I noticed all my life here. In the central heat ridge pattern Minnesota and Wisconsin get hammered with lots of rain and everything trying to move into Michigan is drying up / weakening. Then when the pattern goes more zonal everything is suppressed south into central Indiana and Ohio. I see what you mean. In recent years, especially for the Great Lakes region, what you described has been the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 we've seen a ton of textbook MCSs plow through N. Illinois over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I was actually thinking about this the other day. It does seem that the corn belt is the sweet spot for derechos. If you were gonna paint an area called "derecho alley" where would you place it exactly? Historically, it's the I-90/94 corrdors, from Sioux Falls/Aberdeen through Minneapolis, Eau Claire, Sheboygan, Chicago, South Bend, Detroit, Cleveland. The peak for activity is the lower lakes. Same for NW flow severe outbreaks in general, including NW flow tornado outbreaks. There's a secondary max (and technically the largest max by rate but not by area) over the western Ozarks/Ouachitas, which I think might be more related to serial derechos during the cool season. In terms of your progressive, summer-time derechos though, we're number one. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm#climatology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I see what you mean. In recent years, especially for the Graet Lakes region, what you described has been the case I think Lake Michigan has something to do with that. The warm inflow probably gets choked off as it travels over the lake. Sometimes those complexes weaken before they even get to the lakefront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 This is pretty great, you guys http://ams.confex.co...apers/81343.pdf (seriously a must read, esp for Michigan posters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Best spring ever.. Severe season has sucked here so far as I though so that's excellent. AC in March - who doesn't love extremes. No heat at all in April. May with just enough torch days sprinkled in to get primed for the summer heat and the hottest days will of occurred this past and coming up Holiday weekend - perfect. Hopefully there will be some rain for all soon as since the 2.75" fell in early May we're stuck under 3" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I see what you mean. In recent years, especially for the Great Lakes region, what you described has been the case Recent years have followed climatology for the most part, except 2010 which featured the most tornadoes in DTX's history. So I don't see what either of you are saying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Recent years have followed climatology for the most part, except 2010 which featured the most tornadoes in DTX's history. So I don't see what either of you are saying at all. even in 2010, most of the tornado activity was along/south of I-94. Othr than that, the lion's share of th severe weather activity in the GL/OV was also in Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 even in 2010, most of the tornado activity was along/south of I-94. Othr than that, the lion's share of th severe weather activity in the GL/OV was also in Indiana and Ohio. You can't pick and choose minute locations to argue convective points when convection by nature is hit or miss. Just because your specific locale wasn't hit doesn't mean region-wide/state-wide wasn't hit and hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Could only plot significant hail/wind because otherwise there would have been too many reports to plot. Based on this, I don't really see a massive difference in severe storm occurrence in the areas being compared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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