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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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0z GFS looks like it runs a MCS E-W from IA to IL/WI along the instability gradient/warm front saturday afternoon/evening. Right on the north side of the mid-level ridge.

Temperatures are definitely responding to that complex too. Looks like a cooler day this run, compared to previous runs today. Easterly component to the flow north of I-80.

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This ridge is going to be a killer for me on Saturday. I'm moving from Murray to my first post college graduate job in Paducah on Saturday and it looks like we could be flirting with 100 the degree mark. Yuck.

That stinks! Maybe try to do the strenuous work early in the morning or late in the day. If anything - take lots of water breaks!

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IWX has an article posted that discusses developing drought conditions.

http://www.crh.noaa....=83346&source=0

Although it is spotty and not nearly as bad as some regions of the country, the forecast looks to exacerbate the problem. In our subforum there seems to be a ribbon of drought conditions that follows the Wabash river valley through Northern/Central IN, down the IN/IL line to Southern IL and Western KY.

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IWX has an article posted that discusses developing drought conditions.

http://www.crh.noaa....=83346&source=0

Although it is spotty and not nearly as bad as some regions of the country, the forecast looks to exacerbate the problem. In our subforum there seems to be a ribbon of drought conditions that follows the Wabash river valley through Northern/Central IN, down the IN/IL line to Southern IL and Western KY.

What's interesting is that the drought monitor maps don't really align well with the percent of normal precip maps over the past 60 days ...

http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=1337688000&yday_analysis=0&layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=NWS&units=engl&timeframe=last60days&product=per_normal&loc=regionCR

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Hopefully before the heat arrives this weekend, the areas that need rain will get it along the warm front. There's no point in cutting the grass this week as it looks now! Yet another chilly morning at 42°. Couple lows at 39° around the area even! I think the dry soils are helping the lows dip lower then they normally would this time of year.

66° currently.

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I would hate to be in the landscape business this year. Those guys got royally ****ed by the lack of winter and snow. Now they are getting screwed by the developing drought. You can't cut it if ain't growing.

It depends on your business model. A lot of the plow people here had windfall profits as they contract a flat monthly rate. So because there was little to plow, money was still coming in without having to spend money on actually plowing. Same can be said for those who contract flat monthly lawn cutting.

But for those who get paid by the job, ouch, what a bad year.

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Overnight lows might dip into the 40s but the a typicall recovery into top shelf 70s and pure sun look possible. Soak up those easy pleasant day while we can.

Not to say the models are correct but if 850 temps below 0C were to verify as both the GFS and Euro show for later next week, it surely wouldn't be in the 70s for highs.

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dtx

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE

STATE THROUGH SATURDAY...AS BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO (1028

MB) LEADS TO COOLER EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE

CHANCES ARE GOOD THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL

LEAD TO ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY OR MORE

FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL (INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET) SATURDAY

NIGHT...PRECLUDES GOING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE

WILL TRY TO PUSH IN ON SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN STILL REMAINS

ON THE FRINGE (AS 588 DAM HEIGHT...500 MB) CAN NOT MAKE IT MUCH

PAST EIGHT MILE)PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z AND THE 12Z EUROPEAN

CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING HUNG UP

ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE

LOWER TEENS...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPPED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS STILL

MAKING INTO THE UPPER 80S TOWARD 90 DEGREES...AND WILL CONTINUE

WITH THIS GENERAL THEME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A CONCERN IF

THE CAP IS BROKEN...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...MLCAPES AROUND

2500 J/KG.

WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER HOT DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD

FRONT...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH

COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL

LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES

REGION.

I'll travel down several miles to feel that heat.......

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Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin always hog all the rain and t-storms this time of year. They just have better climatology. The lakes and ohio valley get the leftover scraps of dying MCS debris and trailing cold fronts with no good forcing.

6/2/90, 5/13/95, 6/5-6/10, 5/31/85, 5/30/04, 5/29/82, etc.

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