SpartyOn Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The Euro had the upcoming heat pegged from 240+ hrs. It's looking like it will be very close on the amplitude of the ridge. I'm impressed. The euro seems to do well with sniffing out sub tropical ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 You aren't going to want to sniff Saukville's underpants after the blowtorch that is predicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 this is gonna suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Looks like the whole state of Illinois should easily be 90F+ by Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 really hoping for some type of easterly component on the shore...i'm not ready for this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 really hoping for some type of easterly component on the shore...i'm not ready for this yet. Me neither! Later on in June is what I expect for sustained heat, not on Memorial Day weekend! Still having chilly lows, 43° this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I hope the heat never shows up this summer. Very very dry around here. Sandy soil dries out very quickly...my grass that is exposed to all day sun is brown and crusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Trouble brewing for Memorial Weekend? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/05/frontal-boundary-to-lurk-in-southern.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Trouble brewing for Memorial Weekend? http://weatherhistor...n-southern.html I disagree. The lakes are NOT that cold and the front is NOT gonna stall south of the lakes. GFS is on to that and trending BACK toward the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The western Lakes are averaging around the low 50s, with the eastern lakes average in the high 50s. Those back doors cold fronts still have some punch this time of year. I betting the front will move north into the lakes, but not until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Wow 00Z GFS has 2m temps in the mid 50s for highs next Saturday. As much as I hate to say it, the cooler solution will usually verify this time of the year. It's easier for a cold front to scream south of me than it is to hold it up north of me. 00Z EURO has trended toward the GFS. Warmth is over next weekend. I disagree. The lakes are NOT that cold and the front is NOT gonna stall south of the lakes. GFS is on to that and trending BACK toward the EURO. lol. Hotter and stickier the better please if I have to be stuck in the dells for the Holiday weekend. Just got back from 9 days up north and I can't believe how far the veg is developed. Lakes still a little nippy for swimming in the upper 50's to mid 60's but that's above avg for the date. Lakes getting low again. 12z GFS fantasy land would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Models have convection in WI/MI on Saturday (vary on exact placement) so if that happens then it could shove the front south temporarily. Even if the synoptic front ends up farther north, the gradient looks weak enough that it could allow for a lake breeze which would keep lakeside areas cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 lol. Hotter and stickier the better please if I have to be stuck in the dells for the Holiday weekend. Just got back from 9 days up north and I can't believe how far the veg is developed. Lakes still a little nippy for swimming in the upper 50's to mid 60's but that's above avg for the date. Lakes getting low again. 12z GFS fantasy land would be nice. That were a lot of people swimming on sunday when we got near 90. If we enter a prolonged period of 70-90 temps we'll see some real bathwater by August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yup ^ Last two summers the lakes down here in southern wi weren't even refreshing any more. Just seen Rodger is going balls to the walls so I feel pretty good now for sure that this summer wont rival the last 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yup ^ Last two summers the lakes down here in southern wi weren't even refreshing any more. Just seen Rodger is going balls to the walls so I feel pretty good now for sure that this summer wont rival the last 2. Seek out the spring feed lakes, those are always refreshing in the summer! I was in Devil's Lakes Saturday for a short time, about 60° only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 here, many, if not most lakes are "spring fed." I guess when swimming, you might notice cooler, localized areas but overall the lakes going to be a bath when you have summers like the past 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I disagree. The lakes are NOT that cold and the front is NOT gonna stall south of the lakes. GFS is on to that and trending BACK toward the EURO. It could stall out for a short time. Sat appearing to be the most likely day. We might get one heck of a MCS to entertain allot of us around the southern lakes. Come Sun-Tues the heat is on! Bring all of the above mentioned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 This weekend is reminding me somewhat of last Memorial Day Weekend, in which we had a derecho riding the warm front on Sunday (5/29/11), and then had another outbreak when the cold front passed through on Tuesday (5/31/11). I think something like that could happen again this year, except perhaps displaced a day earlier (warm front MCS on Saturday, cold front on Memorial Day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Detroit had temps around 90*F (89*F officially) last Memorial Day. Back to back hot Memorial Days is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Memorial Day weekend last year here was 60s with rain and fog on Saturday and Sunday, then Memorial Day was dry and 90°. Don't think Saturday will be that cool, but a similar setup with 2 days of easterly flow and one day of torch might be exactly what's coming (and throw in a MCS)! High 64° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 18z GFS with mid 70 dews in parts of IA/IL on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 GFS had widespread CAPE values of 4500+ jkg for Michigan on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 GFS had widespread CAPE values of 4500+ jkg for Michigan on Sunday... Dewpoints are overdone and shear is lacking...but its worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 GFS had widespread CAPE values of 4500+ jkg for Michigan on Sunday... July 3rd 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Dewpoints are overdone and shear is lacking...but its worth keeping an eye on. Yup DTX AT THIS POINT...SHARPENING WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST SPILL CLOUDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. 12Z GFS SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 70 TO 75 DEGREES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WELL OVERDONE...AND THUS THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS CALLED INTO QUESTION. NONE-THE- LESS...THERE IS NO ARGUING WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. HIGH INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ARGUE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE INROADS TO THE NORTH. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE...WITH NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 A slight risk by SPC for a portion of our subforum on Thursday. However, I don't think any of our regular posters live in that area expect for DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Dewpoints are overdone and shear is lacking...but its worth keeping an eye on. Maybe I'm being a weenie, but doesn't the GFS typically underdo CAPE? And there's plenty of shear to the north... any southern displacement and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Maybe I'm being a weenie, but doesn't the GFS typically underdo CAPE? And there's plenty of shear to the north... any southern displacement and... I think it tends to underdo it more in the longer range... But either way in this case the dew points its showing and the instability that comes from it are simply unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Trouble brewing for Memorial Weekend? http://weatherhistor...n-southern.html I'm not surprised.I have observed that it usually rains on or threatens the Indy 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Temperature drop similar to last night's - @ 48° now, no wind. Humidity is high, which could lead to some ground fog tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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