frostfern Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think the pattern is going to get more favorable for severe tstorm chances toward next weekend, at least in the upper Midwest... farther south/east may be dealing with a ridge from hell so lower confidence. The 12z GFS and latest Euro are really pissing me off now. Minnesota and northern Wisconsin are gonna hog all the t-storms if that verifies. Hopefully it's overdoing those 20c 850 temps. Otherwise it's the cap from hell. If there's no chance of t-storms due to a death ridge I'd rather have a nice Canadian high with 70s and 40 degree dps. I'd advice not mowing your lawn too short right now if you want it to stay green for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Just a long range thought. If we get much warmer Great lake Temps this summer and then we get a much colder winter coming up. Look for maybe heavy Lake effect snows this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I will not be need a fan if this happens... FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z Euro says the only rain around here in the next 10+ days is the little bit that might fall later Sunday. My rain barrels are useless right now because we can't get any rain to fill them. Looks like I'll be using tap water for the plants through the upcoming heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 FTFY Clever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 If the med range GFS/Euro are right, our lake breezes will be pretty much dead by early June I don't want to hear that! lol ... @Hawkeye: I have a couple rain barrels too, but I also save some of the water that comes from the sump pump. As long as that turns on fairly regularly then I don't really need to use the hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I don't want to hear that! lol ... @Hawkeye: I have a couple rain barrels too, but I also save some of the water that comes from the sump pump. As long as that turns on fairly regularly then I don't really need to use the hose. Are you new to the lakes region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Are you new to the lakes region? Lived in this county all my life! My point was getting at - the lose of a lake breeze in the middle of the summer sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 My Davis station is showing 82°, with a dew of 28°, for relative humidity of 14%. It's a dry heat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Here's something that you don't see every day from IND's afternoon disco: .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/ ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLYING MODEL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE LATEST INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN. SINCE THE EVENT IS CLOSER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISREGARD THE EURO AT THIS POINT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO ONLY BRING IN CHANCE POPS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS...INITIALIZATION NUMBERS LOOK GOOD EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS. IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SO...LOWERED THOSE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Actually, this incredibly dry airmass has understated the warmth quite a bit based on how we compute "average" temperatures. The high + low divide by 2 method doesn't factor in that the brief, but relatively chilly, lows are only occurring for a small fraction of the day. For example yesterday at ORD, if you integrated the day's temperature, you'd have found that it was about 2 degrees warmer than the stupid high + low method. Here at CLE, the real average temperature was 3.5 degrees warmer than the high + low method. I can't believe we are still calculating averages this way. We have enough historical data to go back and recompute this stuff, and especially since we redo the climate normals every 10 years anyway, there's reason enough to get rid of an antiquated unscientific method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 If we're gonna torch this summer then I say let's go all out. Endless 90-95 gets pretty old...let's shoot for some 100's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 88F... Ran up to Lake Wazee in Jackson County (Its north of Madison and about 2 hrs from MSP?). Kids were starting to go nuts so we had to go. Water temp had to be around 60f at the beach...pretty cold yet...only other people were a group of high school girls in bikinis... Got the house all locked up tight. Keep the heat out. Still nice in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Someone better order up some tstorms soon... Neighbors are already watering their lawns. I see my grass is turning brown in areas and I haven't mowed in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 87 here after a low of 49. Should be near 90 tomorrow. The stretch of weather from last fall through now has been some of the most boring long stretches I can ever remember. On the flip side though it's been some of the best weather during that time period to be outside in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Here's something that you don't see every day from IND's afternoon disco: Interesting that IND discounts the EURO solution while on the Central Wx forum a number of folks are currently discounting the GFS. Oh, well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'll probably have to wait till Sunday for 80°+, hit 74° today, stayed in the low 70s for the most part. No clouds whatsoever today. Gonna need some rain soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z Euro says the only rain around here in the next 10+ days is the little bit that might fall later Sunday. My rain barrels are useless right now because we can't get any rain to fill them. Looks like I'll be using tap water for the plants through the upcoming heat wave. Is this a garden hose? If you have city water and are able to fill the barrels let the chlorine evaporate. It will be healtier for your plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Another perfect day. Can't remember the last time there was such a prolonged stretch of nice weather here. OT: Amazing game by Verlander tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I'm suprised no one mentioned the easter egg in LOT's discussion... http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KLOT 190142 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 315 PM CDT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS AS COOLER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...BUT BY MIDWEEK...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN...WITH STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 80S...AND THE LONG RANGE ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EVEN MORE WARMING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS...WHICH...IF MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WOULD IMPLY A CHANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. Even APX was discussing mid 90s in their CWA. Pretty crazy for just late May. Of course, we discussed back in March that what may happen in the next 10 days would wreak havoc on any summer forecasts going forward, even despite the ENSO going neutral/weak el nino (like 1991, 2002, 1976, etc.). If we didn't get enough relief into the drought areas by April/May, these heat bursts would be something else, as all of that hot, dry furnace-like air has just been settling/remaining stagnant over that region for at least 3 seasons now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Beautiful nite for a walk in the park. Could have been mid July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 DVN's disco was a good read from a severe weather standpoint for the next week. Reminiscent of some of their winter storm oriented discussions, already t looking in depth at the potential storminess for mid to late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Beautiful nite for a walk in the park. Could have been mid July... Same here in Michigan. Even better through the weekend. Enjoy everyone in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Heat really pooled into MN today: Low humidity really helped...very comfortable out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I'm suprised no one mentioned the easter egg in LOT's discussion... http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Even APX was discussing mid 90s in their CWA. Pretty crazy for just late May. Of course, we discussed back in March that what may happen in the next 10 days would wreak havoc on any summer forecasts going forward, even despite the ENSO going neutral/weak el nino (like 1991, 2002, 1976, etc.). If we didn't get enough relief into the drought areas by April/May, these heat bursts would be something else, as all of that hot, dry furnace-like air has just been settling/remaining stagnant over that region for at least 3 seasons now. That kinda hard to believe. I've only seen low 90s in May a handful of times - never seen mid 90s in May before. We would need a change to a wet patten to help tame the furnace heat down. We're getting into that time of year, when there needs to be an inch of rain every 10 days or so to keep areas out of drought status. Nice night outside! 59° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this a garden hose? If you have city water and are able to fill the barrels let the chlorine evaporate. It will be healtier for your plants. Or you could always add a little low concentrated solution of Na2S2O3 to drop out the chlorine lol. Works quite well. Looks like tomorrow could be our first 90 of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 If we're gonna torch this summer then I say let's go all out. Endless 90-95 gets pretty old...let's shoot for some 100's. 1988 here we come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 If we're gonna torch this summer then I say let's go all out. Endless 90-95 gets pretty old...let's shoot for some 100's. I'm suprised no one mentioned the easter egg in LOT's discussion... http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Even APX was discussing mid 90s in their CWA. Pretty crazy for just late May. Of course, we discussed back in March that what may happen in the next 10 days would wreak havoc on any summer forecasts going forward, even despite the ENSO going neutral/weak el nino (like 1991, 2002, 1976, etc.). If we didn't get enough relief into the drought areas by April/May, these heat bursts would be something else, as all of that hot, dry furnace-like air has just been settling/remaining stagnant over that region for at least 3 seasons now. 1988 here we come? Not any crazier than March. The warm anomalies continue. I never thought that I'd live through another summer of '88. This summer could prove me wrong. The only difference is that AC is more readily available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Many offices this morning are talking about potential 90s by late in the week next week. Chicago though even mentioned an outside shot at triple digits. FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO LOVE THE HEAT OF SUMMER...READ ON. FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO DISLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ENJOY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PRETTY STAUNCH RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT A +22 TO 26 H8 THERMAL RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. /WHERE THE GFS ISNT QUITE AS WARM...WITH ONLY +16 TO +18 DEGREES C READINGS/. THIS IS A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARDS FROM YESTERDAY...AND MUCH CAN CHANGE BEING A WEEK OUT. BUT IF THE EC SOLUTION WERE TO PAN OUT...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD EASILY CRACK THE MID 90S...AND IF DEWPOINTS WERE TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY CRACK THE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. GIVEN SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE GEM...DO FEEL CONFIDENT GOING HIGHER THAN WHAT THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVES US TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHS AT THE END OF THE WEEK OUT OF THE LOWER 90S AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM INHERITED TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN ALSO LOOK LOW THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. Looking at records for DTW, the all time record high for DTW in May is 95 set all the way back in 1895 on the 31st. Not that I think it will happen but to put into reference how rare 100 would be for here, June 8th hit 100 in 1933 after that the next 100+ record is June 25th set back in 1988 at 104. As for Chicago, like Detroit it has never hit 100 for the month of May, the all time record is 98 set back in 1934, their first 100 record fell on June 1st also in 1934 at 102. Their next +100 record isn't until the 19th of June, where it hit 102 in 1953. Needless to say anything around 100 would be all time record territory for Detroit/Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 As Tony mentioned in the C/W thread, this large, broad trough showing up next week on the models bears close watching for svr wx interests here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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