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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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I'm not biting on any heat wave yet, especially 10 days out! I expect to see a lot of 70s in the coming week though. Seems like the best warmth wants to set up in the Plains.

Not really.

Some of our best heatwave setups are when a strong upper jet (like the 130kt upper jet showing up on the models) blasts into the west coast from the Pacific, which is a telltale sign that a highly amplified pattern is brewing.

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Apparently we made it to 69*F here today.

The string of 64*F+ days continue.

NAM and RAP has temps getting into the mid-upper 70s tomorrow in the heat island away from Lake St. Clair/Erie. This is assuming mixing heights to around 900mb.

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Obviously instability has been a big question mark throughout the last couple of days when looking at the weekend cold front, but the LSX WRF and the likes of the NAM/GFS are still showing 1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE in many areas. Shear is lacking until you get behind the front, but there should be more juice in the atmosphere than this week Tuesday's storms. Good enough for at least a marginal/low end threat I would think.

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Most probably won't be happy if what's showing on the EURO were to happen.

It's been a while since we've had that strong of a ridge (594dm) centered so far north and west. It would thus be much harder to flatten and offer any sign of relief.

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GEM is no cake walk either. Although it's soultion is reached differently from teh GFS< the outcome is no different.

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Most probably won't be happy if what's showing on the EURO were to happen.

It's been a while since we've had that strong of a ridge (594dm) centered so far north and west. It would thus be much harder to flatten and offer any sign of relief.

GEM is no cake walk either. Although it's soultion is reached differently from teh GFS< the outcome is no different.

Powerball,

I would take that pattern in a heartbeat. I love heat and the hotter the better. Roger Smith thinks it locks in all summer through September. WOOHOO.

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This sucks in that I have to already water every day. 90F and 31mph wind gusts...full sunshine will dry out soil in a hurry, especially the beach sand in my yard.

I've been watering too! You got a beach in your yard! B)

Waking up to 65° and clear skies. Another onshore wind day.

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Powerball,

I would take that pattern in a heartbeat. I love heat and the hotter the better.

I wouldn't be mad if that type of pattern happens. Many of us would actually be in a better position for ring of fire t'storms, at least where we won't have to deal with any convective crud and we'll in the heart of any instability domes.

It's unlikely though, at least in terms of the ridge being that strong and setting up that far NW. Something in between the GGEM and previous EURO is probably more likely than not, and I still think GFS is out to lunch given the amplication of the west coast trough.

EDIT: 12z GFS looks a lot more EURO-esque now.

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I wouldn't be mad if that type of pattern happens. Many of us would actually be in a better position for ring of fire t'storms, at least where we won't have to deal with any convective crud and we'll in the heart of any instability domes.

It's unlikely though, at least in terms of the ridge being that strong and setting up that far NW. Something in between the GGEM and previous EURO is probably more likely than not, and I still think GFS is out to lunch given the amplication of the west coast trough.

EDIT: 12z GFS looks a lot more EURO-esque now.

I thought that the July 2011 Death Ridge was unlikely this far out too. Proven wrong though. Euro is so good at sniffing out these features in the summer months. It's almost a lock.

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