SpartyOn Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 FWIW I believe that the run the beast posted was yesterday's 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I will not be a fan is this happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I'll order one of these for the rest of summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Made it all the way up to 80 after starting at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 SE winds..lake breeze and upper 50s for you I made it to 64° today! The beaches were in the mid 50s today I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I made it to 64° today! The beaches were in the mid 50s today I believe. 65 here at foster St beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 About 74 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 65 here at foster St beach Less lake for that east wind to work with. ...should have added along the North Shore. 56° for a high at Carthage College, Kenosha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I'll order one of these for the rest of summer! That's quite a high sitting over Louisville. Not conducive for severe, but maybe a ring of fire setup? Oh well, it's still lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I will not be a fan is this happens... Same here. Tuesday's dry heat was fine, this wouldn't be dry air - I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm not biting on any heat wave yet, especially 10 days out! I expect to see a lot of 70s in the coming week though. Seems like the best warmth wants to set up in the Plains. Not really. Some of our best heatwave setups are when a strong upper jet (like the 130kt upper jet showing up on the models) blasts into the west coast from the Pacific, which is a telltale sign that a highly amplified pattern is brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Very chilly morning. BIG surprise, DTW is one of the warmest lows in the area at 43F....many burbs in the 30s, including 34F at the NWS in White Lake and a few freezing readings towards the thumb. One more chilly night ahead, then the warmth looks to build bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Down to 52° with low 40° dewpoints. Really nice weather stretch we're having, but some mild thunderstorms would be nice too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Apparently we made it to 69*F here today. The string of 64*F+ days continue. NAM and RAP has temps getting into the mid-upper 70s tomorrow in the heat island away from Lake St. Clair/Erie. This is assuming mixing heights to around 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Obviously instability has been a big question mark throughout the last couple of days when looking at the weekend cold front, but the LSX WRF and the likes of the NAM/GFS are still showing 1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE in many areas. Shear is lacking until you get behind the front, but there should be more juice in the atmosphere than this week Tuesday's storms. Good enough for at least a marginal/low end threat I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think the pattern is going to get more favorable for severe tstorm chances toward next weekend, at least in the upper Midwest... farther south/east may be dealing with a ridge from hell so lower confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Upper 80's predicted for Northern IN for both Saturday and Sunday. Low dews, dry soil, deep mixing, normal hotspot = LAF 91° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Most probably won't be happy if what's showing on the EURO were to happen. It's been a while since we've had that strong of a ridge (594dm) centered so far north and west. It would thus be much harder to flatten and offer any sign of relief. GEM is no cake walk either. Although it's soultion is reached differently from teh GFS< the outcome is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I will not be a fan is this happens... Same here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Most probably won't be happy if what's showing on the EURO were to happen. It's been a while since we've had that strong of a ridge (594dm) centered so far north and west. It would thus be much harder to flatten and offer any sign of relief. GEM is no cake walk either. Although it's soultion is reached differently from teh GFS< the outcome is no different. Powerball, I would take that pattern in a heartbeat. I love heat and the hotter the better. Roger Smith thinks it locks in all summer through September. WOOHOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Powerball, I would take that pattern in a heartbeat. I love heat and the hotter the better. Roger Smith thinks it locks in all summer through September. WOOHOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I eventually want some heat for my plants, but I'd hate to see a hot, dry pattern lock in and put the kibosh on the already dreadfully boring severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 This sucks in that I have to already water every day. 90F and 31mph wind gusts...full sunshine will dry out soil in a hurry, especially the beach sand in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 May heat=wind wind wind. Give me 73F and light variable winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 This sucks in that I have to already water every day. 90F and 31mph wind gusts...full sunshine will dry out soil in a hurry, especially the beach sand in my yard. I've been watering too! You got a beach in your yard! Waking up to 65° and clear skies. Another onshore wind day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Powerball, I would take that pattern in a heartbeat. I love heat and the hotter the better. I wouldn't be mad if that type of pattern happens. Many of us would actually be in a better position for ring of fire t'storms, at least where we won't have to deal with any convective crud and we'll in the heart of any instability domes. It's unlikely though, at least in terms of the ridge being that strong and setting up that far NW. Something in between the GGEM and previous EURO is probably more likely than not, and I still think GFS is out to lunch given the amplication of the west coast trough. EDIT: 12z GFS looks a lot more EURO-esque now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I wouldn't be mad if that type of pattern happens. Many of us would actually be in a better position for ring of fire t'storms, at least where we won't have to deal with any convective crud and we'll in the heart of any instability domes. It's unlikely though, at least in terms of the ridge being that strong and setting up that far NW. Something in between the GGEM and previous EURO is probably more likely than not, and I still think GFS is out to lunch given the amplication of the west coast trough. EDIT: 12z GFS looks a lot more EURO-esque now. I thought that the July 2011 Death Ridge was unlikely this far out too. Proven wrong though. Euro is so good at sniffing out these features in the summer months. It's almost a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS is full on torch....Lake Michigan already up to 60 and is 2" under last year. Going to be bath water by August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Lake Michigan temperatures with respect to previous years. Air temp peaked at 74°, strong SE wind is in control bringing marine air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Lake Michigan temperatures with respect to previous years. Air temp peaked at 74°, strong SE wind is in control bringing marine air in. If the med range GFS/Euro are right, our lake breezes will be pretty much dead by early June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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