Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Up to 81° with a few clouds. Dewpoints holding steady in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 CU trying to go up along the front in Iowa where there is ever so slightly better moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yeah you can see those Iowa cumulus popping up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text Aleking fail once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like a blowtorch today. 86 forecasted. Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 83 °F in Madison, 88 °F across a chunk of SW Wisconsin. Summer weather, and also good weather to get thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Alek, just give it up already. It's 84 at the airport, low to mid 80s pretty much everywhere. It's painfully obvious he is a warminista, but there's no reason to continue this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 83 °F in Madison, 88 °F across a chunk of SW Wisconsin. Summer weather, and also good weather to get thunderstorms. Not with dewpoints in the mid 30s-low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Alek, just give it up already. It's 84 at the airport, low to mid 80s pretty much everywhere. It's painfully obvious he is a warminista, but there's no reason to continue this discussion. he's also a chronic liar who pretended to be a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 extreme low level lapse rates are just enough...returns starting to pop along that line despite the pathetic moisture...New Mexico style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 83 °F in Madison, 88 °F across a chunk of SW Wisconsin. Summer weather, and also good weather to get thunderstorms. Hey turtle? Is this your 1st summer around the lakes? When did you move from Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 extreme low level lapse rates are just enough...returns starting to pop along that line despite the pathetic moisture...New Mexico style You'd have to launch a rocket to get to the cloud bases...LCLs on mesoanalysis are >3000m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 151951Z - 152045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-00Z. SOME RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY BE LIMITED BY QUALITY OF MOISTURE /LACK THEREOF/...RENDERING THE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE LOWER THAN PERCEIVED EARLIER. THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUMPING CU FIELD ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30 MI N DSM INTO NERN IA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS YIELDED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND 40-50 DEG TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. OF NOTE...VARIOUS MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. OBSERVED GPS PW/S IN FAR ERN IA NEAR THE IL BORDER AND OVER NERN IA /0.4 TO 0.5 INCH --RESPECTIVELY/...ARE 0.25-0.5 INCH LOWER THAN VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS SUCH...UPDRAFTS WILL SEEMINGLY BE INHIBITED TO A DEGREE BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...DESPITE FRONTAL FORCING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE/...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD...YIELDING PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..SMITH/HART.. 05/15/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sun is really becoming filtered. At 83°, dewpoint hasn't budged since late morning. A very comfortable warm day. Edit: Clouded over 3:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Low 80s across SEMI, 81* here. nice n' toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Low 80s across SEMI, 81* here. nice n' toasty. This is fantastic. Can't remember the last time the relative humidity was so low here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 82/41 here at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Showers starting to pop along the front. NMM suggesting convection development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 86 buddy ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Showers starting to pop along the front. NMM suggesting convection development. That won't verify...granted it has its own boundary layer parameterizations separate from the GFS, but it was still initialized off the GFS...which was grossly overdoing moisture this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 One pretty good cell just west of Turtle's place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The better moisture is way up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 One pretty good cell just west of Turtle's place! Those are taking off nicely!! Skilling also thinks a solid chunk of the area will see some storms this evening.. T-storms with tops to 32,000 ft & building flashing cloud/ground lightning SW & S Cen WI. Gusts to 45 mph rptd Mineral Pt WI wi these strms. Gusty storms-sev possibly svr headed for northern IL, reaching city in 7 to 10PM time range. Areal storm coverage: 40-50% of area. http://twitter.com/#!/SKILLING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Warmest day of the season so far. Made it to 88. Can see some elevated looking towers on the northern/northwestern horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Those are taking off nicely!! Skilling also thinks a solid chunk of the area will see some storms this evening.. http://twitter.com/#!/SKILLING Well these storms aren't working off dewpoints, that's for sure! Cell in S Dodge county looking pretty good. Couple micro cells nearer to Milwaukee. SWS: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 440 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 WIZ057-058-063-064-152230- COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-JEFFERSON- 440 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLUMBIA...FAR NORTHEAST DANE...SOUTHWEST DODGE AND NORTHWEST JEFFERSON COUNTIES... AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF WATERLOO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WATERLOO BY 500 PM CDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 81/34 here. Gonna remember this one as it's probably only a matter of time until 80 degree dewpoints show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...NRN IL...SERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 152158Z - 152300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER TSTM CORES THIS EVENING FROM SRN WI...ACROSS NRN IL INTO SERN IA. DISCUSSION...STRONG SUNSHINE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SERN IA INTO SRN WI. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED. MODEL FORECAST DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE AT LEAST 10 DEG F TOO HIGH BUT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH BASES LIKELY NEAR 700 MB. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK...GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 This was an abysmal model performance by and large in terms of moisture although you could sorta see it coming given the shallow nature and deep mixing and also what happened upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The little cell north of Muskegon is producing a few lightning strikes now. Severe warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Thunderstorm anvil's have blocked out the sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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