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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Temps overachieved yet again today.

I certainly wasn't expecting the late day high of 70*F with all the cloud cover (skies finally become SCT-BKN late in the day).

It's also interesting that the GFS is about the only model that's not as aggressive with dragging down those shortwaves out of Canada mid-late week.

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I wonder if the fact that our spring got off to a fast and sizzling start had any impact on the mixing heights (mixing out whatever winter time temperature inversion we had ahead of schedule, thus allowing us to mix up higher in the atmopshere now than we would in a normal Spring), and thus why temps seem to be warming up so easily right now even despite the otherwise marginal profiles and the negligible sun angle.

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I wonder if the fact that our spring got off to a fast and sizzling start had any impact on the mixing heights (mixing out whatever winter time temperature inversion we had ahead of schedule, thus allowing us to mix up higher in the atmopshere now than we would in a normal Spring), and thus why temps seem to be warming up so easily right now even despite the otherwise marginal profiles and the negligible sun angle.

I doubt that. What's going on with temps is a function of the current pattern, not what happened 2 months ago. Only thing that may have some impact would be dry soil but I'm not sure how dry it's been up there.

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I doubt that. What's going on with temps is a function of the current pattern, not what happened 2 months ago. Only thing that may have some impact would be dry soil but I'm not sure how dry it's been up there.

Yep That looks to continue down this way for the coming week. Fairly normal night time temps with large diurnals due to drier than normal soil conditions for May. It makes for great sleeping weather with the windows thrown open as well as nice sunny, warm days.

With the Gulf cut off and nothing to trigger any rain, the farmers in these parts should have everything in the ground by the end of the week. By that time, it will getting VERY dry and they will be doing a rain dance.

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So far this month as we approach the midway point DTW is 5.7 above normal. With how this week looks to shape up and how the long range looks, it will be nearly impossible not to have another above normal month. Really just incredible when you think about it.

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Looks like 4 out of 5 days this week should hit 80F or better. Overnight lows look decent (50Fish)... Looks about perfect.

Really nothing showing on the Euro...looks like next Sat could be pretty warm...before a cool air filters back in.

Looks beautiful through Sunday at least according to the 6z GFS...

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I doubt that. What's going on with temps is a function of the current pattern, not what happened 2 months ago. Only thing that may have some impact would be dry soil but I'm not sure how dry it's been up there.

Soil moisture is at typical May levels around here, so that can't be it.

But it is interesting that the NWS has essentially been playing catch-up with the highs for the past 2 weeks.

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SPC is putting the SE half in Wisconsin in a slight risk of severe for tomorrow.  Not buying it given the low moisture return and hence the rather low precip probs, but you never know.

Moisture isn't good but one thing the setup has going for it is steep lapse rates. When you add it all up it looks like a threat for low end severe weather.

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Yep That looks to continue down this way for the coming week. Fairly normal night time temps with large diurnals due to drier than normal soil conditions for May. It makes for great sleeping weather with the windows thrown open as well as nice sunny, warm days.

With the Gulf cut off and nothing to trigger any rain, the farmers in these parts should have everything in the ground by the end of the week. By that time, it will getting VERY dry and they will be doing a rain dance.

Hopefully the more active pattern beginning on the 20th will bring some soaking t-storms. Of course heat and humidity doesn't always translate into everyone's backyard getting sufficient rain.

It seems like the southern Great Lakes is geographically a climatological dry spot in late May / early June. Southern Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin always get the big drenching MCS and lower Michigan and northern Indiana get cloud debris and a dry cold frontal passage. It's so maddening.

A dry spring does have the upside of suppressing the mosquito hatch though.

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SPC is putting the SE half in Wisconsin in a slight risk of severe for tomorrow. Not buying it given the low moisture return and hence the rather low precip probs, but you never know.

NMM is suggesting some storms too.

hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif

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Temps overachieved yet again today.

I certainly wasn't expecting the late day high of 70*F with all the cloud cover (skies finally become SCT-BKN late in the day).

It's also interesting that the GFS is about the only model that's not as aggressive with dragging down those shortwaves out of Canada mid-late week.

Yesterdays high was 68F at DET and 70F at DTW, with a DTX forecast of 69-73F for Wayne county....so idk where you get overachieving....sounded like a good forecast to me!

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