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Severe Weather Thread (April 26 - May 3)


David Reimer

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MPX hitting Tuesday harder with their latest discussion:

AS FOR SEVERE WX...

AS TONIGHT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NE BY MORNING...AND A STRONGER

SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN

S/SE WINDS BY TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND

WITH A STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST

LATE TUE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE

LIKELY. SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED ARE REGION FOR TUE. THE

SEVERITY OF THE WX WILL DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY

AND UPPER LEVEL JET.

ONE INTERESTING NOTE WITH THE CIPS /COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR

PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS/ WARM SEASON ANALOG GUIDANCE...IS SHOWING

NEARLY 8 OF THE 14 RUNS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT HAS A VERY SIGNIFICANT

CONCENTRATION OF SVR WX /HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES/ FOR THE UPPER

MIDWEST. MORE DEALS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE

UPDATED HWO. ..JLT..

As one can see based off the CIPS for the 12z run, the northern area is a lot more confident.

35lt4pj.jpg

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The original left split from the LBB right-mover (now near Olton) has to be one of the more impressive I've seen in awhile. Has held its own for over an hour with very pronounced, broad anticyclonic rotation evident in the mid-levels... and even hints of a hook on its NW tip.

Meanwhile, LBB itself is likely to get owned as the new tail-end storm plows right into town... especially S side.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

838 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST

DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOLFFORTH...OR ABOUT

20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEVELLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LUBBOCK SOUTH

PLAINS MALL...WOLFFORTH...SLIDE AND WOODROW.

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NE OK. Worries me... heh

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

849 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30

MPH.

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Looks like the NE OK cell is heading right toward Pawhuska. We were just through there a few weeks ago chasing.

Pawhuska is about the only decently-populated town in that entire county, and it does look to be directly in the path right now... not the best of luck. Still about half an hour away, though.

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