baroclinic_instability Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Glancing at the 24 hr free 12z ECMWF plots...it looks like total junk. Will have to investigate further when wunderground maps roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 12z Euro, from what I can pick out, really doesn't have a lot at all (although this is from looking at the rather poor-res E-Wall maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 SPC added a 5% TOR risk area for E Kansas and W Missouri for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Best area for the cap to erode will be across MN and eastern SD, where a cold front will come through. Along with a better sheared environment. A bit surprised by the D3 SPC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Regarding tonight, there is a Severe T-storm warning for W Kansas but that's about it. Looks like stuff is trying hard to fire in E KS, MO, and OK, but can't quite get going. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 MPX hitting Tuesday harder with their latest discussion: AS FOR SEVERE WX...AS TONIGHT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NE BY MORNING...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN S/SE WINDS BY TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WITH A STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY. SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED ARE REGION FOR TUE. THE SEVERITY OF THE WX WILL DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET. ONE INTERESTING NOTE WITH THE CIPS /COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS/ WARM SEASON ANALOG GUIDANCE...IS SHOWING NEARLY 8 OF THE 14 RUNS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT HAS A VERY SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATION OF SVR WX /HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES/ FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. MORE DEALS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE UPDATED HWO. ..JLT.. As one can see based off the CIPS for the 12z run, the northern area is a lot more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Looks like an MCS may be trying to get it's act together in W Kansas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Lubbock is about to get lit up if that monster continues on its deviant path. That thing has to be close to producing baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Lubbock is about to get lit up if that monster continues on its deviant path. That thing has to be close to producing baseballs. Baseball size hail reported. Wall cloud also reported, along with 50mph inflow and a gustnado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Lubbock is about to get lit up if that monster continues on its deviant path. That thing has to be close to producing baseballs. A TOR might not be a bad idea on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Man, those are some classic panhandle HP monsters. Lots of splitting and merging going on. Also, Ponca City, OK storm not looking to shabby structure wise, but I have a feeling it will be disrupted by developing convection soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 That interaction between the dying left split and the RFD of the main supercell was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I think that thing has actually split 3 times and is getting ready to merge with the storm coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The original left split from the LBB right-mover (now near Olton) has to be one of the more impressive I've seen in awhile. Has held its own for over an hour with very pronounced, broad anticyclonic rotation evident in the mid-levels... and even hints of a hook on its NW tip. Meanwhile, LBB itself is likely to get owned as the new tail-end storm plows right into town... especially S side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Van 1 of the COD trip will need a new windsheild after today, took some big hail earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Texas Storm Chasers windshield got destroyed by large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 838 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOLFFORTH...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEVELLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LUBBOCK SOUTH PLAINS MALL...WOLFFORTH...SLIDE AND WOODROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Looks like the Lubbock storm is trying to wrap up. I hope i'm wrong because there are a lot of subdivisions in that area. Edit: Guess i'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 There is definitely some nice low level rotation with the southern storm...it tightened up the last couple scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 been awesome watching this unfold over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Wow...check out the northern anticyclonic supercell. It is developing a hook on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 NE OK. Worries me... heh BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 849 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 847 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Very intense couplet on that NE OK cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Impressive rotation setting up now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Looks like the NE OK cell is heading right toward Pawhuska. We were just through there a few weeks ago chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The Osage county circulation will approach Pawhuska or Wynona, depending upon which path it takes. It had very strong inflow a couple of scans before the circulation strengthened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I am concerned about that pink spot in the middle of the hook. Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Someone needs to tell this cell its spinning the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Looks like the NE OK cell is heading right toward Pawhuska. We were just through there a few weeks ago chasing. Pawhuska is about the only decently-populated town in that entire county, and it does look to be directly in the path right now... not the best of luck. Still about half an hour away, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.