huronicane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Anybody chasing that storm W of the OKC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Anybody chasing that storm W of the OKC metro? 3 people on spotternetwork in the path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Still no TOR warning for the Hinton storm. Assuming it's too elevated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Anybody chasing that storm W of the OKC metro? The supercell? Reed Timmer's crew. http://live.tvnweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 The supercell? Reed Timmer's crew. http://live.tvnweather.com/ He's reporting a wall cloud with it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 updated image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Nothing really screaming a tornado threat from this one KOUN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Radar scanning at about 2800 feet, and no velocities showing up where the meso would be, so the couplet can't be ascertained yet. Must be a pretty good meso considering the vigorous RFD convective line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Decent hook popped up for one scan. Must admit...that's a bit spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I mean it looks good structurally, just no strong rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I mean it looks good structurally, just no strong rotation. No strong rotation where there is data, lots of misisng data likely due to hail. Things will get better as the radar scans lower. ~80 kt couplet now and I don't think it's getting it all yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 No strong rotation where there is data, lots of misisng data likely due to hail. Things will get better as the radar scans lower. ~80 kt couplet now and I don't think it's getting it all yet. Where do you see the missing data? TLX and OUN look pretty similar to me. Improving rotation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 OKC cell is right-moving into a better environment. Given that the Thunder game is going on right now, I'm getting a little nervous about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 248 WWUS20 KWNS 290338 SEL1 SPC WW 290338 OKZ000-290700- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 200... DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS THAT FORMED JUST W OF SW-NE FRONT THROUGH SW/CNTRL OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENE THROUGH EARLY SUN. AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR E OF BOUNDARY...INCREASE IN THETA-E MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE LOW LVL MESO STRENGTH TO POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO ON-GOING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Cells are firing in very close proximity to the OUN cell. Might be enough to disrupt it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN OKS INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 290354Z - 290600Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200 CONTINUES. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXIST FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK. TWO CELLS WERE N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK...BUT WERE MOVING MOSTLY IN AN EWD DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE FIGHTING SOME CAPPING AND CIN...FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THESE CELLS GOING FOR A WHILE. AS THEY APPROACH THE SURFACE FRONT...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTER WARMER AND MOISTER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WHICH COULD HELP IN VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS DOWN LOW. THIS...ALONG WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF TORNADO. TO THE S...LARGE HAIL WAS THE MAIN THREAT OVER NWRN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL T/TD SPREADS WERE LARGER. SOME OF THESE CELLS WERE LEFT MOVING...AND WILL EXIT THE WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Just observed a very large, ominous wall cloud ~3 S Yukon around 10:50pm. Agree that new activity popping up in this cell's inflow may disrupt it at least temporarily, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Just observed a very large, ominous wall cloud ~3 S Yukon around 10:50pm. Agree that new activity popping up in this cell's inflow may disrupt it at least temporarily, though. I also wonder if it might add locally to the vorticity being ingested into the storm or cause it to redevelop closer to the boundary. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Can't tell if it just went to crap or is being distorted by radar proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Look at this second one near Binger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 The storm south of Enid near the Hennessey area appears to be the closest one for an upgrade in my opinion, but even this one isn't all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Cogar storm keeps looking like it's gonna do something interesting, but never does. Edit: Looks to be cycling right now, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Timmer reporting wall cloud and inflow band near Union City Edit: And it fell apart just when it started getting it's act together. I'm pretty sure OKC dodged not one but TWO bullets tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 New D3 has a slight risk for a sizable chunk of the Central/Northern Plains towards the Upper MS Valley, with an embedded 30%/sig-hatched area. Looking at the models, instability doesn't appear to be an issue much at all, so the main concern will likely revolve on where the juxtaposition of most favorable wind profiles and shear will be located. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY. UPPER JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 600 SM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SRN THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS REGIONS... LEE TROUGHING WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD A BROAD...MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND LOW 60S FARTHER SOUTH. ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY OVER THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NEB WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS KS. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM NEB INTO THE DAKOTAS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES AS THEY ADVANCE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 SPC must be going strongly NAM...both the ECMWF/GFS have a weaker wave/wind fields and a surface COL over the region of greatest instability. I guess I am not terribly excited yet about that potential event day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I know I'm late, but a word in on the Friday events. I think a lot of the highway patrol and police may have been extra ramped up as there were multiple accidents along Highway 18 between Ogden and Manhattan having to deal with those messes - just normal traffic but seriously stop and go as construction were sending heavy equip back and forth across the highway all afternoon long stop go, go faster, stop... slam into the person in front of you, or person behind you hits you. I think we counted two each way at least 3 cars involved in each... with HP and County Sheriff dealing with mess. chain reaction type stuff that had happened probably in the rain or the approaching storm. This would have been about the time as the Junction City storm was heading towards Manhattan, it became less than severe quickly...but left a lot of crushed cars in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 SPC must be going strongly NAM...both the ECMWF/GFS have a weaker wave/wind fields and a surface COL over the region of greatest instability. I guess I am not terribly excited yet about that potential event day 3. I do think all three models have potential in the northern threat area (where the better upper/mid level flow overspreads the warm sector). The LLJ is weaker on the GFS/Euro, but still strong enough to create some nicely clockwise curved LL hodographs. The bigger question would probably be how far the quality deep layer moisture can make it prior to possible initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I do think all three models have potential in the northern threat area (where the better upper/mid level flow overspreads the warm sector). The LLJ is weaker on the GFS/Euro, but still strong enough to create some nicely clockwise curved LL hodographs. The bigger question would probably be how far the quality deep layer moisture can make it prior to possible initiation. I actually disagree...I think the bigger question is the dryline placement, strength of convergence, and the mid level wind fields. The globals do not enthuse me. NAM backing off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I am a bit surprised they decided to go with a 30% hatched area considering the obvious questions with the quality of the deep layer wind fields, particularly where the 30%/sig-hatched is placed, and as you mentioned the convergence along the boundary is not by any means a slam dunk either. From what I can tell, the models at the time of the D3's issuance also showed the same issue with the convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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