baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Alright enough of the bickering bs...the rest can go to PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 granted i've not watched this stuff intently as long as some but it seems these small compact systems can bust easier than a larger trough. need to time everything perfect moreso than not. i was surprised how gung ho everyone was.. tho im generally a bit pessimistic i suppose. I've seen these things really go to town, but timing and the fact that the zone of action is usually smaller, makes for more complications I think. These troughs sometimes can produce good outbreaks as you have such a ramp up of dynamics as the s/w approaches. Severe wx is an interesting phenomenon. Who would have thought a week ago there would be tornadoes scattered around MN with 540 thicknesses and Tds in the 40s..lol. When things come together just right, action happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 timmer's undoubtedly the best chaser out there or close. of course a lot of that is that he chases all the time. but particularly now that he has no show he has become quite the hypester with every event--tho it's likely a play to the social media audience which gobbles it up. he knows his ****... I don't have a personal problem with the guy. He has 131,000 people on his Facebook page. He has to realize that people rely on him as a professional scientist and meteorologist due to his show so he needs to be careful when dealing with the general public since he wants to warn them about upcoming storms. He causes a lot of panic and confusion though because he doesn't realize the general public doesn't know what EHI is, and that those scary red colors of death mean nothing if there's no storms. He does provide timely updates during tornado warnings though. Well, speak of the devil, apparently he got pulled over by a cop earlier today: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=414073891944690&set=a.274503605901720.77477.233957776622970&type=1&ref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The setup in general usually does well...i.e. s/w kicking out east of the Rockies in a negatively tilt. However loop H5. Notice there is a lobe of vorticity passing through at 21z, but then the whole thing lifts north, while the best surface based instability gets pinched ESE. Not the best collocation of these parameters. However, there is still some opportunity left to we'll have to see. It wasn't really a classic negative tilt shortwave though...more of a very compact and deep PV anomaly...I think most would have rather seen a broader open wave in the mid levels and a much broader warm sector. That said, today certainly had potential if it all came together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Meanwhile Topeka, NWS issued a tor warning for Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Folks in Topeka should be preparing for a solid storm in the next 15 minutes or so. If the meso could strengthen, then it could get very interesting. Edit: I guess it did strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Anyway, moving on, Topeka is in a tornado warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I don't have a personal problem with the guy. He has 131,000 people on his Facebook page. He has to realize that people rely on him as a professional scientist and meteorologist due to his show so he needs to be careful when dealing with the general public since he wants to warn them about upcoming storms. He causes a lot of panic and confusion though because he doesn't realize the general public doesn't know what EHI is, and that those scary red colors of death mean nothing if there's no storms. He does provide timely updates during tornado warnings though. Well, speak of the devil, apparently he got pulled over by a cop earlier today: https://www.facebook...0&type=1&ref=nf hype in weather discussion goes far beyond him and it's gotten much worse in recent years.. it does the whole industry a major disservice as far as im concerned. major efforts to change that should be seen as important by the powers that be imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It wasn't really a classic negative tilt shortwave though...more of a very compact and deep PV anomaly...I think most would have rather seen a broader open wave in the mid levels and a much broader warm sector. That said, today certainly had potential if it all came together right. Yeah the warm sector was quite pinched. Still, I thought it would be a little more prolific, but just a couple of things off I guess. It's sort of a nice reminder to people that not all outbreaks have to "overachieve." You'll always have a few that just don't quite come together. The SREFs even this morning weren't very excited which may have been a clue. But, there is a little time and I don't want to downplay much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The setup in general usually does well...i.e. s/w kicking out east of the Rockies in a negatively tilt. However loop H5. Notice there is a lobe of vorticity passing through at 21z, but then the whole thing lifts north, while the best surface based instability gets pinched ESE. Not the best collocation of these parameters. However, there is still some opportunity left to we'll have to see. Yeah, kinda surprised that storms just never got going. Usually these compact shortwaves get things done with regards to convective initiation and even the high-res models from yesterday night were lighting things up. However it was clear around 21Z that when incipient storms along the pseudo-front/dryline were still struggling, today would bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Watch about to be issued for EAX and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 That's a short MD: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 280000Z - 280030Z ONGOING HAIL STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. ..JEWELL.. 04/28/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Proximity to the radar is skewing the data, although from what I can see it looks rather impressive on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Best tor parameters are directly south of the cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Proximity to the radar is skewing the data, although from what I can see it looks rather impressive on reflectivity. When looking from EAX, it's really not looking that hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Yeah, it lost some of the structure that it did have showing on TWX as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Interesting. Texas Storm Chasers say that they can confirm that the Kansas State Police are on the lookout for storm chasers. That may have something to do with Reed being pulled over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Interesting. Texas Storm Chasers say that they can confirm that the Kansas State Police are on the lookout for storm chasers. That may have something to do with Reed being pulled over. Are they ticketing them, or just warning them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Interesting. Texas Storm Chasers say that they can confirm that the Kansas State Police are on the lookout for storm chasers. That may have something to do with Reed being pulled over. I hear many chasers are driving way over the speed limit. Sounds like they're trying to pick off the speeders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Topeka cell and ones south looking decent right now. Lawrence area cell showing rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Are they ticketing them, or just warning them? I dunno, we'll have to ask David when he gets on if they got stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Gonna call bust on this one in terms of the tor threat. Hail should impact the EAX metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 I dunno, we'll have to ask David when he gets on if they got stopped. https://twitter.com/#!/TxStormChasers/status/196033219240542208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 28, 2012 Author Share Posted April 28, 2012 I hear many chasers are driving way over the speed limit. Sounds like they're trying to pick off the speeders. I had a Kansas State Trooper fly up on me while I was on I-35 about a mile south of the rotation (South of Topeka) and yell at me to deactivate my amber lightbar. For those wondering, I was doing 61 MPH in a 75 MPH zone. No ticket, but it sure makes me question that officer's judgement considering you could even hear the sirens going off and see the obvious rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 given the setup today, can be happy i saw 2-3 wall clouds and several (4 or 5) funnel clouds, albeit short lived (just south of Salina earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 I hear many chasers are driving way over the speed limit. Sounds like they're trying to pick off the speeders. i can confirm this when i was out earlier. Even chatted with a state patrol saying they were going for speeders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 I had a Kansas State Trooper fly up on me while I was on I-35 about a mile south of the rotation (South of Topeka) and yell at me to deactivate my amber lightbar. For those wondering, I was doing 61 MPH in a 75 MPH zone. No ticket, but it sure makes me question that officer's judgement considering you could even hear the sirens going off and see the obvious rotation. Interesting, wonder if it's a local law. I've heard from two others that people were way over the speed limit & getting pulled over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 This was a COMPLETE bust, but mainly because the forcing stayed north longer than expected, therefore not letting the Dryline Storms develop to fast... Also, the Warm Sector was VERY Narrow, I think had the Warm Sector been a bit bigger (lets say Warm Front goes a bit north of TOP) this might have been more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 State Police are always uptight about that kind of stuff if they know your an out of state chaser. Never hurts to have a KS PBA card while chasing (Pulled over twice in 2004 by the States and actually made two new friends lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 State Police are always uptight about that kind of stuff if they know your an out of state chaser. Never hurts to have a KS PBA card while chasing (Pulled over twice in 2004 by the States and actually made two new friends lol) This is exactly why I avoid putting light bars, stickers, etc on my car that identify me as a chaser. The only thing on my car is the antenna for the cell signal amplifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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