Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 423 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 419 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DELPHOS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AURORA AND CONCORDIA AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The rotation on the storm in Cloud County KS is buried in heavy rain and hail. Looking like a HP supercell from the way the radar is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The rotation on the storm in Cloud County KS is buried in heavy rain and hail. Looking like a HP supercell from the way the radar is looking. I was watching Brandon Ivey's live stream as the funnel cloud (with his report of a brief touchdown) moved across the road in front of him. Had some good circulation but was also shrouded by rain. EDIT: Link to his feed: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/brandoniveyweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I would say the tor threat is rapidly diminishing...these storms are rapidly outrunning the SB boundary layer instability...and none of the cells currently within it are showing any sort of deviant motions...they aren't ingesting much if any of the low level flow. It seems the best threat area is now southern KS where the instability axis still extends well east. Some storms are trying to initiate down there...SPC 4 km wrf tried to initiate a few down there on the 12z run. Otherwise...the HRRR has done fairly well today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The storms forming near Concordia begin rotating fairly quickly. The town of Aurora is near another possible tornado, with the brief touchdown that happened a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I would say the tor threat is rapidly diminishing...these storms are rapidly outrunning the SB boundary layer instability...and none of the cells currently within it are showing any sort of deviant motions...they aren't ingesting much if any of the low level flow. It seems the best threat area is now southern KS where the instability axis still extends well east. Some storms are trying to initiate down there...SPC 4 km wrf tried to initiate a few down there on the 12z run. Otherwise...the HRRR has done fairly well today. Agreed on all accounts. The fledgling storm SW of Emporia already has very good rotation on it and could be big trouble if it takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Agreed on all accounts. The fledgling storm SW of Emporia already has very good rotation on it and could be big trouble if it takes off. Based on vis and surface obs, looks like the front is sitting directly on top of Emporia. Looks like it has a very narrow window of opportunity if it can get going fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The circulation south of Council Grove is the one I'm most interested in. It's shown decent mid-level rotation for the last half hour or so at times. There's a few weaker circulations west of that too. This could go on to impact Alma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Surprised there is nothing on the junction city/Ogden cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Spotters in Emporia should be able to get a good look at the storm overhead. Interested to see if they find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Too bad he's kinda full of crap 1 tornado report so far today. 19 more needed for his "tornado outbreak" he was calling for last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 He always calls tornado outbreak when any kind of possible system looks to have an inkling of producing supercells, I can't believe he's about to get his phD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The Emporia cell looks to be improving its structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 He always calls tornado outbreak when any kind of possible system looks to have an inkling of producing supercells, I can't believe he's about to get his phD... Okay couple of things, in Timmer's defense, I'm pretty sure he's seen quite a few more tornadoes than you. Second of all, he called for a tornado outbreak because things were linning up to go that way. You can't predict these little mesoscale details that may cause a risk area to bust a few days in advance. Quit posting things on here without getting your facts straight, and quit calling people out. It's getting really ridiculous and i'm getting tired of reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Okay couple of things, in Timmer's defense, I'm pretty sure he's seen quite a few more tornadoes than you. Second of all, he called for a tornado outbreak because things were linning up to go that way. You can't predict these little mesoscale details that may cause a risk area to bust a few days in advance. Quit posting things on here without getting your facts straight, and quit calling people out. It's getting really ridiculous and i'm getting tired of reading it. I called for an event as well, I'm accenting JoMo's post and I know I am not the only one around here who thinks Reed's antics get a tad iffy at times. I do appreciate when he steps in to help people after their towns have been damaged, don't get me wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 He always calls tornado outbreak when any kind of possible system looks to have an inkling of producing supercells, I can't believe he's about to get his phD... Stop bringing petty bs into this forum. He's enthusiastic and loves what he does. You're just as enthusiastic about severe in your own way. I believe it was you who posted numerous times about the first big March trough and used "My God", "Wow" etc, several times. Turned out to be a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Stop bringing petty bs into this forum. He's enthusiastic and loves what he does. You're just as enthusiastic about severe in your own way. I believe it was you who posted numerous times about the first big March trough and used "My God", "Wow" etc, several times. Turned out to be a cutoff. That was the March 2nd outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Stop bringing petty bs into this forum. He's enthusiastic and loves what he does. You're just as enthusiastic about severe in your own way. I believe it was you who posted numerous times about the first big March trough and used "My God", "Wow" etc, several times. Turned out to be a cutoff. Finally, somebody else says something. I frankly could care less if I get kicked off of here for what I say. There are some very intelligent meteorologists on this site, and also some insane wishcasters that goes nuts over every big trough they see. I'm sick of it. Don't call an outbreak, and then rip on others because it didn't pan out. It's extremely immature and ignorant. If you want to get anywhere in meteorology, it's always good to stick by what you say, and be confident. Don't then go on to call others out. Andy, you may think you know a lot, but frankly i've seen you post some complete b.s. on here such as the comment about many strong tornadoes occurring in extremely veered wind profiles on March 2nd. Get your facts straight or no one is ever going to listen to what you say with any grain of salt. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Anyway yes, feel free to delete that stuff, I'd be more more than willing to discuss this in PMs rather than cluttering up the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 RUC ramps up STP into the evening hrs and holds it well into the night over sw Missouri and nw Arkansas. Does it know something we don't know, like a possible increase in a LLJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Bit to much drama, even for me going on here. SO it looks like dry air wrapping in killed this one? Tim Marquis saw the problem last night: "Key problem: The forcing is still too far east (nose of 500mb jet pushing into far eastern MO by 00z) and there will be subsidence on the back side of the trough. Storms may be suppressed across the warm sector. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 lol @ all the faux RT hate... would put money down he knows more about this stuff than anyone here (or at least 99%). Yes, he usually has an optimistic bias (and I believe it's mainly genuine, not just for "ratings"), but the all the rants about his Ph.D and association with OU are completely unfounded and uninformed. That said, I ****ing hate mis-timed systems... would much rather have no convection at all. Over 1200 miles for me between yesterday and today. I pretty much saw it coming, but just can't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Okay couple of things, in Timmer's defense, I'm pretty sure he's seen quite a few more tornadoes than you. Second of all, he called for a tornado outbreak because things were linning up to go that way. You can't predict these little mesoscale details that may cause a risk area to bust a few days in advance. Quit posting things on here without getting your facts straight, and quit calling people out. It's getting really ridiculous and i'm getting tired of reading it. timmer's undoubtedly the best chaser out there or close. of course a lot of that is that he chases all the time. but particularly now that he has no show he has become quite the hypester with every event--tho it's likely a play to the social media audience which gobbles it up. he knows his ****... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Enough bickering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 lol @ all the faux RT hate... would put money down he knows more about this stuff than anyone here (or at least 99%). Yes, he usually has an optimistic bias (and I believe it's mainly genuine, not just for "ratings"), but the all the rants about his Ph.D and association with OU are completely unfounded and uninformed. That said, I ****ing hate mis-timed systems... would much rather have no convection at all. Over 1200 miles for me between yesterday and today. I pretty much saw it coming, but just can't help myself. Tbh, I think a lot of the stuff I've seen on Storm Chasers and whatnot has certainly clouded my judgment of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Also, back on track, the Emporia cell has certainly intensified on the reflectivity display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I called for an event as well, I'm accenting JoMo's post and I know I am not the only one around here who thinks Reed's antics get a tad iffy at times. I do appreciate when he steps in to help people after their towns have been damaged, don't get me wrong... big difference between his antics and questioning whether or not he should have a PhD or not...you obviously haven't met him or you would of noticed just how smart he really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The setup in general usually does well...i.e. s/w kicking out east of the Rockies in a negatively tilt. However loop H5. Notice there is a lobe of vorticity passing through at 21z, but then the whole thing lifts north, while the best surface based instability gets pinched ESE. Not the best collocation of these parameters. However, there is still some opportunity left to we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 big difference between his antics and questioning whether or not he should have a PhD or not...you obviously haven't met him or you would of noticed just how smart he really is. Fair enough, that was a bit of a cheap shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The setup in general usually does well...i.e. s/w kicking out east of the Rockies in a negatively tilt. However loop H5. Notice there is a lobe of vorticity passing through at 21z, but then the whole thing lifts north, while the best surface based instability gets pinched ESE. Not the best collocation of these parameters. However, there is still some opportunity left to we'll have to see. granted i've not watched this stuff intently as long as some but it seems these small compact systems can bust easier than a larger trough. need to time everything perfect moreso than not. i was surprised how gung ho everyone was.. tho im generally a bit pessimistic i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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