JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 12z RGEM lights it up into northern OK. If that happens it is going to get ugly based off the kinematics/thermodynamics through that entire region. MLCIN is weakening down into N OK. Some weakening near the WF is SE KS and the storms in SW MO are forming right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 1630 outlook "THE ASSOCIATED EML WILL LIKELY CAP DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER MUCH OF OK...WITH PRIMARY TSTM ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO MO. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT OVER THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Springfield, MO MCD but it's too long to post, mentions strong tornadoes: http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=SGF&StateCode=MO&SafeCityName=Springfield AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1143 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS STRONG COMPACT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO FAR NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AND BE JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NE OK AND FAR NW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL FOLLOW THE LIFTING WARMING FRONT AND BE REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE NOTABLE IN FORECASTING THE CAP STRENGTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED THE THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THE MOST INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SFC WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT...AND POSSIBLY PREVENT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO NE OK THUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SO THAT THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL REMOVE MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUST DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBSERVED AND LOCAL MODELING TRENDS. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Am I correct in saying there's a strong presence of 'Gravity Waves' in the current visible sat in CO/KS/OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 About 40 miles south of the KS/OK state line headed towards Winfield, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 sun came out here in mcpherson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 i'd be tempted to take the under. hodos look sick but the sfc low is occluded and prime area is pretty small. these compact systems can produce well but they can underproduce also. if nothing else there always shuold be at least one voice not going to the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0605.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Ah.. wonderful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Im probably going to play the Salina to Minneapolis to Junction city area today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 i'd be tempted to take the under. hodos look sick but the sfc low is occluded and prime area is pretty small. these compact systems can produce well but they can underproduce also. if nothing else there always shuold be at least one voice not going to the extreme. Are you chasing today? I'd feel safer if you were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Are you chasing today? I'd feel safer if you were ha. no.. maybe why i'd take the under. tho... im guessing you mean since i carry an anti-storm magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Thoughts are with all of you out in your area of concern, JoMo, particularly if those supercells verify this evening. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 ha. no.. maybe why i'd take the under. tho... im guessing you mean since i carry an anti-storm magnet. Yeah, you scare the storms away. Looks like they are starting across Central KS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yup, looks like cells are starting to erupt from the Great Bend area to sw of Wichita at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 watch issued http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Thoughts are with all of you out in your area of concern, JoMo, particularly if those supercells verify this evening. Stay safe. Thanks. A lot of people are freaking out. Some want to head south into Oklahoma until it passes, others hysterically crying. Lots of nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Looks like she's sucking in some dry air somewhere based on WV. Storms have been really struggling so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Whole lotta subsidence in the highest risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 66/51 at Topeka...79/67 at Wichita...wind gusts to low 30's at each...se at Topeka and south at Wichita. Nice contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Cu field really blossoming along the boundary...shouldn't be long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 A lot of time these outbreaks have that really dry tongue wrapping around into the region. It will moisten a bit more as convection tries to do its job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Might be getting close to a possible tornado developing west of Concordia KS, north portion of the box near Beloit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Nice SRV on the cell near Beloit, KS and in higher tilts as well. Edit: Just updated and not as strong now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 New MCD http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0607.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 18z NAM sounding for Chanute, KS valid at 7pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Timmer has a rapidly rotating wall cloud near Salina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 A whole lotta subsidence, not sure if any storms can fire south of~EMP in the MDT risk area now that the dynamics are shifting northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Timmer has a rapidly rotating wall cloud near Salina. Too bad he's kinda full of crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Nasty storm near Glasco KS will approach Concordia from the south. The key is how low the mesocyclone actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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