andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Uh oh...there are signatures on both Precip and Comp. Reflectivity as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 06z 4KM NAM still has Joplin as being the farthest south area that develops storms. I don't like that one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 06z NAM really beefed up the low/mid level flow. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It has the cap breaking further south into OK as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Very strong wording from Pueblo CO on the storm that narrowly missed hitting Lamar CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Very strong wording from Pueblo CO on the storm that narrowly missed hitting Lamar CO. This one? AT 229 AM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF CHIVINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. A LARGE TORANADO IS LIKELY ON THE GROUND...HEADED FOR THE CHIVINGTON AND BRANDON AREAS. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yeah, like JoMo mentioned, this is not a good sign...intense circulation on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This one? AT 229 AM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF CHIVINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. A LARGE TORANADO IS LIKELY ON THE GROUND...HEADED FOR THE CHIVINGTON AND BRANDON AREAS. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! Indeed. Radar is showing intense velocity, and it caused damage on the SE corner of Lamar. Had it hit the city directly, this would've been a very bad situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Another TOG with the southern cell: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 243 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... NORTH CENTRAL PROWERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... * UNTIL 315 AM MDT * AT 242 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 9 MILES EAST OF QUEENS RESERVOIR...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAMAR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Anyone think we could see a Moderate later today? It's currently a high end Slight. Also homes reported with roofs torn off and walls collapsed near Lamar, CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 PSWO issued, MDT forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yeah they just issued an MCD for the categorical upgrade across eastern KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Quite concerned about precip maps juxtaposed with soundings in the threatened areas for later today and the fact that several rounds of t storms are expected to lay down additional boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Those negatively tilted troughs kicking out of the Rockies are usually pretty impressive. It's kind of a small area of concern, but some good kinematics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This is going to be bad today if things clear out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This is going to be bad today if things clear out as modeled. Just playing around on twister data with the 12 NAM. Those profiles are dam impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 12z NAM sounding for Joplin, Missouri valid at 10pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 kansas as a hotspot in april might mean we're chasing in canada in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Some cells are already firing along a line. Might need a watch soon if things strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Looks like some great low level rotation/moisture in E KS tonight. Upper level winds are lacking, though. Could that be an issue this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 TCU just west of Dodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 kansas as a hotspot in april might mean we're chasing in canada in a few weeks. Less chaser convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Stacked 996mb low with 50knot 850mb winds over parts of KS 500mb Vort/MSLP/850mb Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 HRRR 12z run popping multiple supercells across all of Kansas by late afternoon/early evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 If confidence continues to increase in the placement of the most significant convection this afternoon and evening, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of higher probabilities introduced in later outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 SPC is really on the ball today with their discussions 149 ACUS11 KWNS 271515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271515 OKZ000-KSZ000-271715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...FAR N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271515Z - 271715Z SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG EWD SURGING DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS TO PERHAPS N-CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 95 PERCENT. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SE GLD WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND A SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING IN NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND CLOUD BREAKS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM COMANCHE TO PAWNEE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z DDC RAOB AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE COMMENCED WEAKENING WITH SRN EXTENT IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR /PER TIME SERIES OF HAVILAND KS PROFILER/...0-1 KM SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KT WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELEGATED ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2500 J/KG IN S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN CNTRL KS. ..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39169987 39399982 39589935 39659873 39489790 38899712 38099678 36939674 36729711 36659744 36759810 36989874 37689902 38369933 39059982 39169987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 12z RGEM lights it up into northern OK. If that happens it is going to get ugly based off the kinematics/thermodynamics through that entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It seems that Tulsa is less confident in initiation in their CWA. It will be interesting to see how far south the storms fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Area south of MCI could be a good spot later on towards 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Area south of MCI could be a good spot later on towards 00z. Agreed. Right about Fort Scott/Pittsburg, KS would be my target today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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