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Severe Weather Thread (April 26 - May 3)


David Reimer

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I'm surprised that the Storm near Oak with the Hook hasn't rapped up/ cycled yet..

The storm that formed on its flanking line is currently interfering with its inflow.

This was pretty impressive a few minutes ago...

294995_10150811729404169_166805519168_9352595_2078850642_n.jpg

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It looks like the Storms North of Superior it's becoming one of those situations where there is two Supercells all congealed into the same storm, just with two separate areas of rotation/ two hooks...

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What a beast in Southern ND right now...

Noticed that a few minutes ago.. Looks like a Monster... It appears it has some Strong Rotation, granted that it is 60+ Miles away from the ABR WSR 88...

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Wow... That Storm near Davenport has got it's act together quick, pretty classic supercell, with pretty good rotation.. ALTHOUGH the Rain cooled air looks like it may out run the storm thus getting rid of the Tornado threat, unless it cycles..

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1001 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG

ROTATION. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTH OF

MADISON...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLINGHAM...AND MOVING

EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

MADISON...

BELLINGHAM...

MILAN...

CERRO GORDO...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1038 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MNC023-073-030400-

/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120503T0400Z/

LAC QUI PARLE MN-CHIPPEWA MN-

1038 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND EAST

CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 1100

PM CDT...

AT 1036 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A ROTATING WALL

CLOUD ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF WATSON...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MONTEVIDEO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MONTEVIDEO...WATSON AND ASBURY.

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mcd0670.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1106 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012      AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 030406Z - 030430Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...WW WILL BE COORDINATED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS   OF CENTRAL MN INTO NERN SD.      DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN SD ESEWD   THROUGH CENTRAL MN TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO INTO CENTRAL WI.  A   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY   WITH A FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN   MN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER   WEST CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD.  THE NRN CHIPPEWA STORM IS LIKELY   LOCATED ON OR VERY CLOSE TO THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY...AND THUS   MAY BE SURFACE BASED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES   SUGGESTED A FEW PERTURBATIONS/JET MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE ERN   DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MN WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND   SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT   WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE ATTENDANT   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
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I had to miss out yesterday being on the forecast desk and having spotter training last evening, but I did want to post something I noticed during the morning.

The visible satellite from around 10 AM yesterday morning. You can clearly see the arcing OFB from the morning convection, but there was also a secondary boundary that made itself present as daytime heating commenced (running SW to NE). Looking at surface obs, this roughly marked the boundary of richer surface moisture. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints resided south of the boundary, and low 60s to upper 50s to north. The boundary actually made very slow progress north during the day, about 30 miles in total. Sure enough it was along this boundary that the reported tornado occurred, despite being south of or on the southern edge of the moderate risk.

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I had to miss out yesterday being on the forecast desk and having spotter training last evening, but I did want to post something I noticed during the morning.

The visible satellite from around 10 AM yesterday morning. You can clearly see the arcing OFB from the morning convection, but there was also a secondary boundary that made itself present as daytime heating commenced (running SW to NE). Looking at surface obs, this roughly marked the boundary of richer surface moisture. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints resided south of the boundary, and low 60s to upper 50s to north. The boundary actually made very slow progress north during the day, about 30 miles in total. Sure enough it was along this boundary that the reported tornado occurred, despite being south of or on the southern edge of the moderate risk.

Interesting......a new outflow boundary looks to be setting up on the Iowa/MN border from todays convection. Really visible on the loop.

post-4278-0-65914200-1336065423_thumb.jp

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