baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player-full.pl?username=tim.purington&uid=33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Whoa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like a good circulation on the NE corner of Saint Cloud. Not sure if that matches up with the video or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0223.html tornado watch for the twin cities metro until 1 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 looks like a TOG on Stanga's feed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like it is about to produce on Stanga's cam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 new tornado watch box out, it includes the entire TC metro area and almost all of W Central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 New tor cell south of Sioux Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Decent rotation near Rock Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 A little too close to home for comfort... Did go after the smaller storm in Sherburne county before I had to break off and go pick up the daughter at the bus stop... Very nice structure with wall cloud that looked like it could do it ... Crazy night here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Tornado reported about 10min ago near Everly, IA, associated with the tor warned notch in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 looks like a TOG on Stanga's feed: There is no way in hell you can see a tornado in this screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 This was an un-tornado warned (Severe T-storm warned) spin-up EF-2 tornado that happened last night in NE OK with the bow echo. .WELCH TORNADO /CRAIG COUNTY/... START DATE: MAY 1 2012 START TIME: 130 AM CDT START LOCATION: 1 MILE NORTH OF WELCH START LAT/LON: 36.8872 N / -95.0940 W END TIME: 132 AM CDT END LOCATION: 1.8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WELCH END LAT/LON: 3 36.8961 N / -95.0796 W RATING: EF-2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 110 TO 120 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 150 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 1 SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO TORE THE ROOF OFF OF A PERMANENT HOME...SHIFTED ANOTHER HOME OFF ITS FOUNDATION AND BLEW OUT AN EXTERIOR WALL...TURNED OVER AN OUTBUILDING...ROLLED TWO HORSE TRAILERS...DESTROYED A 40 FOOT BY 60 FOOT STEEL FRAMED BARN...AND SNAPPED OR UPROOTED TREES. A PERSON WAS INJURED IN ONE OF THE PERMANENT HOMES WHEN THE WINDOW IN HER BEDROOM SHATTERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 There is no way in hell you can see a tornado in this screenshot. agree, it was more convincing in the live stream with clear rotation, i grabbed what i could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Grading the SPC performance in Mn for today. The outlooks were just about right on with the TC metro being on the far east side of the 30% hatched hail. The 2 and 5% tornado risk was right on. Outlook forecast from the 1st day one graphic through today would warrant a A grade. My issue was with the extension of the Tornado Watch to include the TC metro, I thought it was somewhat questionable at the time of issuance, but I can certainly understand the idea of being cautious. Overall grade for the SPC is a B- . As far as the American Models 24 hours out based on the STP effective layer, the GFS was the much better model. The more and more I look at this, the Nam is not the trusted model 24hrs out. It seems like the GFS is much better at both winter and summer events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Reported the tornado west of Brooten, MN. Here's my footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 As far as the American Models 24 hours out based on the STP effective layer, the GFS was the much better model. The more and more I look at this, the Nam is not the trusted model 24hrs out. It seems like the GFS is much better at both winter and summer events. The NAM has outperformed the GFS with multiple events this year within the 48 hour period. Also, WRT the MDT risk, I have a feeling there may be some OFBs to interact with later on to locally enhance tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 The NAM has outperformed the GFS with multiple events this year within the 48 hour period. Also, WRT the MDT risk, I have a feeling there may be some OFBs to interact with later on to locally enhance tornado potential. There is certainly a southwestward moving OFB from about KFNB through KLNK and arcing back north towards NOFK. Should see that start to retreat northward as southerly boundary layer flow picks up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Grading the SPC performance in Mn for today. The outlooks were just about right on with the TC metro being on the far east side of the 30% hatched hail. The 2 and 5% tornado risk was right on. Outlook forecast from the 1st day one graphic through today would warrant a A grade. My issue was with the extension of the Tornado Watch to include the TC metro, I thought it was somewhat questionable at the time of issuance, but I can certainly understand the idea of being cautious. Overall grade for the SPC is a B- . As far as the American Models 24 hours out based on the STP effective layer, the GFS was the much better model. The more and more I look at this, the Nam is not the trusted model 24hrs out. It seems like the GFS is much better at both winter and summer events. The NAM has outperformed the GFS with multiple events this year within the 48 hour period. Also, WRT the MDT risk, I have a feeling there may be some OFBs to interact with later on to locally enhance tornado potential. Yes, agreed with the NAM comment. From a pure forecasting standpoint, the NAM has a ton of utility in the shorter range with convective weather....especially in modeling mesoscale boundaries/features which can have major impacts on storm environments. It is never a good idea to simply "ride" one numerical model for all situations...especially with convective weather where it is often a better idea to employ a multi-model approach in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 MD for the plains. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NE...SD...MN...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 022034Z - 022200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PORTIONS OF NERN NEB ACROSS SERN SD TO SRN MN AND NWRN IA. IF THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY...A WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF NUMEROUS AND SUBTLE SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED WITH WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER NERN NEB WHERE RECENT SATL IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CU CONGESTUS INCREASING. THE CU ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG NERN SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM ACROSS SRN MN WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS LIKELY WEAKENED. THE ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH A BELT OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50KT THAT IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KT. WHILE LATEST CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS GENERAL AREA...DETAILS OF INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT STORM EVOLUTION REMAIN COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN. LATEST 18Z NAM-WRF SHOWS LIMITED QPF SIGNAL ON THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MN/WI THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY REASON FOR THESE VARIOUS SCENARIOS IS THE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS MT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. IF PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES CAN PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND SHEAR IN PLACE WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NEGATE GREATER TORNADO THREAT...ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARY/FRONT/TROUGH INTERSECTIONS...COINCIDENT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE REGIME...MIGHT RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THIS DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO OCCUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2012 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42349639 40879786 40729851 41079867 42649801 43519752 43969702 44309643 44609527 44749466 44759388 44629319 44529301 44119245 43749272 43339395 42789580 42349639 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Going to be an interesting convective day with all sorts of potential modes...quite a bit of uncertainty with how this will all play out. I for one am not buying the NAM depiction of a large bowing segment tracking through all of NE. Dews are mixing out here across central NE...and I think any activity that develops across the high terrain of WY/Panahndle will likely fall apart before interacting with the rich boundary layer moisture farther E. Northern IA seems the place to be, at least IMHO for early discrete activity. Low level backing is not really pronounced anywhere...but long hodographs will still support some nice early splitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Some pretty frisky looking towers building now between Norfolk and Grand Island. Nice surface moisture convergence in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Going to be an interesting convective day with all sorts of potential modes...quite a bit of uncertainty with how this will all play out. I for one am not buying the NAM depiction of a large bowing segment tracking through all of NE. Dews are mixing out here across central NE...and I think any activity that develops across the high terrain of WY/Panahndle will likely fall apart before interacting with the rich boundary layer moisture farther E. Northern IA seems the place to be, at least IMHO for early discrete activity. Low level backing is not really pronounced anywhere...but long hodographs will still support some nice early splitters. I'm not quite sure why SPC has the tornado probs as high as they do west of the current MD. Low-level moisture is really lacking west of Norfolk/Grand Island. Seems to me it would be more of a hail threat, but maybe they're seeing something I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Some pretty frisky looking towers building now between Norfolk and Grand Island. Nice surface moisture convergence in that area. That area looks primed to go soon. Latest RAP mesoanalysis has that entire area CINH free. Also just glanced at the new NAM...finally backed off that long tracking bowig segment/mini derecho it was trying to track across NE. Rapid Refresh performed very nicely since late last night w.r.t. dewpoints across central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Top of 23kft now just north of Central City. Looks like it's about kickoff time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I am not really sure why OAX is in clear air mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 I am not really sure why OAX is in clear air mode right now. I always wondered if that was something that changes automatically once a certain reflectivity threshold is met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Storms have started to develope in SW Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 MPX has just switched over to vcp 212 from 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Cell quickly went severe south of Mankato, possibly slight rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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