baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Getting concerned about low cloud cover across central MN. It is resisting mixing at the current time, and it isn't lifting N very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 BTW, nice trapped lee waves in the lee of the Coteau de Prairies in eastern SD and western MN. Also indicative of a remnant stable layer that has not mixed out yet (since the presence of atmospheric waves requires static stability). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The RAP/SPC meso still shows significant surface based inhibition right where the trapped waves are located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 It is subtle, but it most certainly is there. Not all warm fronts are extremely backed in the low levels like you may get with deeper cyclones. It certainly is a progressive wave/cyclone scenario here, but the warm front should still provide an environment favorable for tornadoes if the low clouds can sufficiently mix out by later afternoon. It certainly won't be a tor outbreak though. I am thinking discrete initiation followed by a QLCS later evening as the storms trek through MN, but it is definitely going to be a relatively significant potential early season event for MN (my home state). the 2nd front that he found is one that i think is laying along the trans-canada highway (attm more like the main one, not the yellowhead highway). that 2nd front will probably be near the northern limit of any t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 two things: The SPC referred to a dryline (or pre-frontral trough) is this west of MHE and east of 9V9? For you NOAA guys out there: what is wrong with the plotting on the HRRR RADARVIL and VIL plots? This is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Already a broken line of some nice towers from southeast SD back towards Valentine NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 First MD for the plains. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD...SW MN...NW IA...NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 011930Z - 012030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. PART OR ALL OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WW BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MBG EWD TO ETH AND THEN SEWD TO AXA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO OGA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS A RESULT...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES /AROUND 1000 J/KG/ IN AND AROUND FSD. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY. SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE STORM ORGANIZATION IS PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER E /ACROSS MN/...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATES AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS SUCH...VEERING WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT ISOLATED. ..MOSIER/BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 45839676 46029623 46039553 45699452 44779386 44109366 43299452 42479558 41869650 41549736 42249957 42819911 43529836 44169767 44619739 45549706 45839676 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Anyone else notice twisterdata and a few other sites haven't updated since the 11z RUC run? I believe it's because the RUC replacement (RAP) started today at 12z. Wonder how long it will take for some of these favorite sites to switch over to the new RAP input. You would think twisterdata would have been on top of that. BTW looks like twisterdata now has RAP data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 BTW looks like twisterdata now has RAP data. Nice. Like the 18hr aspect of that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Tornado watch out for Western MN/Eastern SD until 10PM CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 A couple tor reports in Pope Cty MN. These storms are moving into a slightly more populated area near I94 including St. Cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 warning out now west of st cloud. this is going to be a potentially nasty evening. at least the watch is west of the twin cities metro area, rochester, mankato, and duluth attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Going to be interesting to see how these storms trend. They are currently in a prime environment across central MN, but the window is short. However, if they front keeps lifting northward as the storms propagate eastward...they may stay in a pretty primed tornadic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Going to be interesting to see how these storms trend. They are currently in a prime environment across central MN, but the window is short. However, if they front keeps lifting northward as the storms propagate eastward...they may stay in a pretty primed tornadic environment. Indeed... They're right on the SRH gradient, with 0-1km SRH values of 350 just to the east of the cells. LCL's are lower across this area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Indeed... They're right on the SRH gradient, with 0-1km SRH values of 350 just to the east of the cells. LCL's are lower across this area too. Storm west of St. Cloud trying to get its act together again. Awful location right now...in the radar hole of western and central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like a new meso developing on the St. Cloud storm, moving right towards the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like a new meso developing on the St. Cloud storm, moving right towards the city... It is on an absolute beeline for St. Cloud. City itself is close to population of 100,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Rotation increasing, and this is well away from the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Found a pretty good webcam shot from St. Cloud St. University. http://www.stcloudstate.edu/cameras/ Wasn't sure how clear a webcam shot would look, but it looks pretty dark from that shot, I'm assuming looking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Very large wall cloud from Michael Stanga's stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The circulation is literally riding I94. Shouldn't be a problem getting reports at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 TOG! ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTYUNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 526 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW MUNICH...OR 25 MILES WEST OF ST CLOUD... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM... POSSIBLY LARGER THAN GOLF BALL IN SIZE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALBANY...FARMING...AVON...COLLEGEVILLE...ST JOSEPH...PLEASANT LAKE...ST STEPHEN...WAITE PARK...SARTELL...LUXEMBURG AND ROCKVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 The circulation is literally riding I94. Shouldn't be a problem getting reports at least. i wonder how many of their are students are chasing instead of being in class.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 TOG! That is an old report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Very high VIL on the cell west of St. Cloud. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=MPX&type=NVL&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 That is an old report. Hmm, Kamala must be acting a bit slow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 0548 PM HAIL ALBANY 45.63N 94.57W 05/01/2012 M1.75 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER COVERING GROUND WINDSHIELDS BROKEN ENTIRE CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 cloud tops at about 26k feet just entering sw Carver county, according to the meso analysis there should be some inhibition around that area will it break? no rainfall detected yet by radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 That live streaming webcam from St. Cloud State is pretty awesome. http://www.stcloudstate.edu/cameras/ramplive.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 This is awesome... Incredible view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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